weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ironically they got mostly slop with mixing issues in Vet Day '87 while BOS had over 9 inches. And DC got 11. Not too common..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ironically they got mostly slop with mixing issues in Vet Day '87 while BOS had over 9 inches.such a weird microclimate, UHI, ocean, sound, Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ironically they got mostly slop with mixing issues in Vet Day '87 while BOS had over 9 inches. I forgot about that one. So did Boston have decent Nov snows in 1987 and 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 First map of the season. Ranges are a little broad. Will tighten them up tomorrow when I feel more confident about the push of warm air and where it lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Funny Brett brought up Dec 2012. I actually have a vision of a classic Milton to Taunton CF..almost due N-S for part of the time anyways. At least I could see that in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nov '87 and '89 actually jackpotted south of BOS. I remember both well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:10 AM, CoastalWx said: Nov '87 and '89 actually jackpotted south of BOS. I remember both well. I was in Andover both years so maybe that's why they don't jump out at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 12:51 AM, weathafella said: This is such a hard forecast for Boston and NYC. A month from now it's kind of a slam dunk big snow but methinks we're a tad too early at least in Boston. Agree. Ryan summarized it excellently on his blog. Would feel more confident if we even had the antecedent artic cold that we had earlier in Nov. With a toasty boundary layer + questionable snow growth, I could see us snowing for hours with little accumulation to show for it in metro Boston. At least as depicted on EC/GFS now. Hoping for more northerly flow as depicted on 18Z NAM / hi-res NAM / RGEM... maybe we can get a more NE-SW (vs. N-S) orientation of the coastal front that would favor our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:14 AM, wxsniss said: Agree. Ryan summarized it excellently on his blog. Would feel more confident if we even had the antecedent artic cold that we had earlier in Nov. With a toasty boundary layer + questionable snow growth, I could see us snowing for hours with little accumulation to show for it in metro Boston. At least as depicted on EC/GFS now. Hoping for more northerly flow as depicted on 18Z NAM / hi-res NAM / RGEM... maybe we can get a more NE-SW (vs. N-S) orientation of the coastal front that would favor our area. I feel my chances are better in Princeton and I convinced my wife of the dire circumstances requiring us to travel tomorrow night...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I still think snow growth won't be that terrible. It's not classic dendrites, but I feel that strong UVM and a relatively warm, moist profile will produce some big aggregates and heavy snow where the atmosphere is near and below 32 at the surface. It's really the boundary layer near BOS. NAM and RGEM would be a flip and then cool to 32F snow. I actually feel semi-decent for the western hoods of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 No big change on the map ALY released at 6:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That December 2012 episode is the one where wxniss and I walked to trader joes in heavy snow and home in heavy rain, We got the snow back after about 90 minutes....I broke a bottle wine on the street. Fully uncontrolled weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dec 2012 almost broke me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:17 AM, moneypitmike said: No big change on the map ALY released at 6:45. Slightly more bullish than BOX but a good consensus between the two offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Going with 9 here I think we really rip for a bit Wednesday evening im thinking we tick east a bit in the last 36 hours which usually seems to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREF looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:09 AM, CoastalWx said: Funny Brett brought up Dec 2012. I actually have a vision of a classic Milton to Taunton CF..almost due N-S for part of the time anyways. At least I could see that in this case. Yeah, obviously way to early to talk exact locations, but whoever is on the west side of that might be in for a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:19 AM, CoastalWx said: Dec 2012 almost broke me.. I think the cf made it 1/4 mile west of me. So fukking close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 12:54 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: A 50mi shift E and a lot of people will be wtf'ing the forecasters. It kind of sucks for everyone that's it's coming on a huge travel day. That's actually a huge commercial delivery day too. Lots of trucks on the streets. Gonna' be wild if it thumps snow to the coast, even just a few quick inches. I sure hope power loss isn't an issue. Can you imagine millions of thawed turkeys with no place to go? Oh, the horror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Was playing around with the BOX probability maps, despite their low forecast totals they actually have a 50% chance of >6" in BOS, higher N and W of the city. What's up with the disconnect between the main total map and their own probability maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 6-8 on the BOX map for us in ORH. Why does Weatherunderground have us up over 12? They are often more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:20 AM, weathafella said: . I think the cf made it 1/4 mile west of me. So fukking close... Boy did I really almost lose it that Jan. Thank God for Feb 2013. The combo of up all night and then getting screwed by winter...luckily my son made it worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREFs made a pretty good East shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I need 8.5" to make my 2nd snowiest Novie on record, which is doable...maybe like a 40% shot. I need 10.7" for my snowiest, which is probably about a 15% shot....long shot. Need H7 low to trend east to have a real shot at the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:29 AM, Highzenberg said: SREFs made a pretty good East shift. If it keeps shifting Philly might even be to far west. Still has a whole day to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:08 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: First map of the season. Ranges are a little broad. Will tighten them up tomorrow when I feel more confident about the push of warm air and where it lines up. Thanks for putting out a map--good luck with it. On 11/25/2014 at 1:20 AM, Patrick-02540 said: I sure hope power loss isn't an issue. Can you imagine millions of thawed turkeys with no place to go? Oh, the horror. I don't think there's any scenario that would have that as a problem. Good for folks that the SREF is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sref did tick east And are colder once again. Still a whole day to go. Tick tick tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I need 8.5" to make my 2nd snowiest Novie on record, which is doable...maybe like a 40% shot. I need 10.7" for my snowiest, which is probably about a 15% shot....long shot. Need H7 low to trend east to have a real shot at the latter. My official call is 8" (6-10"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:20 AM, weathafella said: . I think the cf made it 1/4 mile west of me. So fukking close... Good memories lol... we could have walked to the other side of that front. Family coming up from Philly Tuesday for Thanksgiving. I'm hoping this storm will impress. 2012 broke many Boston weenies. I hope you're right, Coastal... I like to flush out all the potential flies in the ointment (in addition to the obvious that we're up against climo!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 1:17 AM, CoastalWx said: I still think snow growth won't be that terrible. It's not classic dendrites, but I feel that strong UVM and a relatively warm, moist profile will produce some big aggregates and heavy snow where the atmosphere is near and below 32 at the surface. It's really the boundary layer near BOS. NAM and RGEM would be a flip and then cool to 32F snow. I actually feel semi-decent for the western hoods of BOS.I don't understand why he is saying snow growth is so bad. I generally think that gets over emphasized anyway, but it certainly looks decent with this. The issue that I think may hold amounts down in the lower spots is temps at 34 at least until sun goes down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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