bobbutts Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 7:58 PM, dryslot said: Like the new colors, More defined ?? you see something different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I know..but I think folks are thinking it starts as snow on the coast and valleys..It will start as rain there It might...we don't know yet...again, whether it starts as 36F catpaws, 37F light rain, or 35F light snow is irrelevant to the impact of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 7:53 PM, MarkO said: GYX map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.php Wierd but the link does not show a map for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:04 PM, bobbutts said: ?? you see something different? I think it was a joke. Suffice it to say, I think almost all the posters off the Cape will get a least the grass covered. Now, time for the minor adjustments of track and temp profiles to determine who gets/misses out on a lot. Either way, a white Thanksgiving for a ton of us. Congrats. Horrible out there today. Imagine all the bitching that would be going on with these temps if there wasn't a storm in 36-48 hours? 57.7/57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Kevin if it starts as a mix, you waste like .05" maybe..lol. That's the least of your problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 any good relevant analogs at this point in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said: Kevin if it starts as a mix, you waste like .05" maybe..lol. That's the least of your problems. What problems does he have? I think he's in a good spot--if you toss the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Hi Res Nam http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.html (yes nam) absolutely crushes downtown Boston. Has things go to town around noon and keeps North flow draining in from AM commute right till thump is over. 33-32 in Bos that run w the usual 1.50 QPF w/ more south of Bos. Like the look of northerly drain for CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:18 PM, moneypitmike said: What problems does he have? I think he's in a good spot--if you toss the EC. I don't think he's convinced (nor am I) that pellets don't rip north to the pike...I mean it's still a nice thump of snow, but there could be a lot of sleet too. We'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:19 PM, cpick79 said: Hi Res Nam http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.html (yes nam) absolutely crushes downtown Boston. Has things go to town around noon and keeps North flow draining in from AM commute right till thump is over. 33-32 in Bos that run w the usual 1.50 QPF w/ more south of Bos. Like the look of northerly drain for CP. Cut NAM qpf by a third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:19 PM, cpick79 said: Hi Res Nam http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.html (yes nam) absolutely crushes downtown Boston. Has things go to town around noon and keeps North flow draining in from AM commute right till thump is over. 33-32 in Bos that run w the usual 1.50 QPF w/ more south of Bos. Like the look of northerly drain for CP. That's if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:18 PM, moneypitmike said: What problems does he have? I think he's in a good spot--if you toss the EC. He has more problems with mid level taint IMO. If I were him, I'd be more aware of the always sneaky warm tongue aloft because he should be fine at the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:21 PM, CoastalWx said: That's if the NAM is right. Blind sqirrell from Jerry's yard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said: Kevin if it starts as a mix, you waste like .05" maybe..lol. That's the least of your problems. I don't have any problems..One more bump east tonight and it's snow belly to belly here. 700 low should end up going over PVD or thereabout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 7:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Wagons SREFs don't mean much. Was anything done over the winter to uncluster'f*** the SREFs from the way they were last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 So is this pretty much over by Wednesday evening in SNE? I know its a quick hitter, but is the brunt late morning through the afternoon or later than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I know the Nam's QPF bias , which is why I said "usual" 1.50 QPF, and Scott ya I just wanted to see that a Northerly Dry air drain had good potential, def not placing final bets on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:22 PM, CoastalWx said: He has more problems with mid level taint IMO. If I were him, I'd be more aware of the always sneaky warm tongue aloft because he should be fine at the lower levels. There's no bad place for a sneaky warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:24 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: Was anything done over the winter to uncluster'f*** the SREFs from the way they were last winter? Just treat them with no respect beyond 42 hrs out or so. They could be right in this case, but we all have little trust in them this far out for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:24 PM, Zeus said: There's no bad place for a sneaky warm tongue. They tend to like the hills of NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:26 PM, dendrite said: image.jpg That looks like it got a nice bump, and given the midday guidance we've seen, a reasonable one at that. I cannot help but extrapolate what it'll look like for BOX, given the tendency for adjacent offices to collaborate to some degree. I think it translates to a general increase, particularly along what was the "borderline" area in their first pass, but still with a tight gradient tracing 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:26 PM, dendrite said: image.jpg Solid hit I see the same image when I go to the gyx page now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 18z NAM is still pretty far east through 48... maybe not quite as much as 12z, but not too different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM is still pretty far east through 48... maybe not quite as much as 12z, but not too different. Still bored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 NAM please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 BOX still hasn't updated. Why do they stick to the schedule given the significant impact this storm will have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM is still pretty far east through 48... maybe not quite as much as 12z, but not too different. Pretty big for the i-95 corridor. Very similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:32 PM, SnowMan said: BOX still hasn't updated. Why do they stick to the schedule given the significant impact this storm will have? Because it takes time for them to do their job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 On 11/24/2014 at 8:32 PM, CoastalWx said: NAM please.We toss it with the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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