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My third CWG outlook discussion


usedtobe

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My third update discussion,  not one I like that much except that it does show ensemble clustering (that a real weather weenie term) which I think is cool.  The clustering suggests lots of uncertainty in the week 2 forecast period.  If I had seen the 12Z euro I might have gone a little cooler for the week 2 period but still would have called any discussion of the period a really low confidence one.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/20/two-week-outlook-roller-coaster-temperatures-precede-a-cold-thanskgiving-then-uncertainty/

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Ha! I don't like it because it's not gonna snow but you did a really good job outlining the reasons behind high uncertainty.

 

Of today's CPC analogs,  3 yielded snowstorms.The heaviest of the three was Dec 5, 2002.  That suggests above normal chances for snow.  Still most likely we won't see accumulating snow as it still is really early and the flow is booking but the chances are better than normal.

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My third update discussion,  not one I like that much except that it does show ensemble clustering (that a real weather weenie term) which I think is cool.  The clustering suggests lots of uncertainty in the week 2 forecast period.  If I had seen the 12Z euro I might have gone a little cooler for the week 2 period but still would have called any discussion of the period a really low confidence one.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/20/two-week-outlook-roller-coaster-temperatures-precede-a-cold-thanskgiving-then-uncertainty/

 

I think the article is good...

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