usedtobe Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 My third update discussion, not one I like that much except that it does show ensemble clustering (that a real weather weenie term) which I think is cool. The clustering suggests lots of uncertainty in the week 2 forecast period. If I had seen the 12Z euro I might have gone a little cooler for the week 2 period but still would have called any discussion of the period a really low confidence one.http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/20/two-week-outlook-roller-coaster-temperatures-precede-a-cold-thanskgiving-then-uncertainty/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 Nice explanation of the week 2 spread, Wes. It's a tough week to get a good handle on for sure. Nice article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 Nice explanation of the week 2 spread, Wes. It's a tough week to get a good handle on for sure. Nice article! lol, I think you are the only person who likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2014 Share Posted November 20, 2014 lol, I think you are the only person who likes it. Ha! I don't like it because it's not gonna snow but you did a really good job outlining the reasons behind high uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2014 Author Share Posted November 21, 2014 Ha! I don't like it because it's not gonna snow but you did a really good job outlining the reasons behind high uncertainty. Of today's CPC analogs, 3 yielded snowstorms.The heaviest of the three was Dec 5, 2002. That suggests above normal chances for snow. Still most likely we won't see accumulating snow as it still is really early and the flow is booking but the chances are better than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 Thanks, Wes. From the 20's to the upper 60's in a few days time. Typical MA weather, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 21, 2014 Share Posted November 21, 2014 My third update discussion, not one I like that much except that it does show ensemble clustering (that a real weather weenie term) which I think is cool. The clustering suggests lots of uncertainty in the week 2 forecast period. If I had seen the 12Z euro I might have gone a little cooler for the week 2 period but still would have called any discussion of the period a really low confidence one. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/20/two-week-outlook-roller-coaster-temperatures-precede-a-cold-thanskgiving-then-uncertainty/ I think the article is good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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