December 2014 temperature forecast contest, Happy Holidays

[bkviking]

DCA +1.1

NYC +0.5

Bos +0.8

Ord -1.1

Atl +2.1

Iah +2.0

Den +2.2

Phx +3.1

Sea +1.1

Oops! Late!

[Quixotic1]

My apologies Roger.  Forgot to tell you that.  Thanks for the due diligence.  

[H2Otown_WX]

Here's where we're at through week 1 with a mild period upcoming, particularly across the nation's mid-section:

 

BOS: +0.5

NYC: +1.1

DCA: +3.3

 

ORD: -1.9

ATL: +10.9 

IAH: +3.8

 

PHX: +7.1

DEN: +7.5

SEA: +1.4

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for updating those, will start a table of projected values today ...

 

______________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

______ 7d _____ +3.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ --1.9 _ +10.9 _ +3.8 ___ +7.5 _ +7.1 _ +1.4

______ 8d _____ +2.2 _ --0.2 _ --1.3 ___ --1.8 __ +9.1 _ +3.4 ___ +7.4 _ +7.4 _ +2.7

______ 9d _____ +1.9 _ --0.3 _ --0.9 ___ --0.3 __ +7.9 _ +3.2 ___ +7.2 _ +7.7 _ +4.1

______10d _____+2.2 _ --0.6 _ --0.2 ___ --0.1 __ +6.8 _ +2.9 ___ +8.0 _ +7.9 _ +5.3

______11d _____+2.0e _--1.0 _ --0.2 ___ --0.3 __ +5.9 _ +3.5 ___ +8.8 _ +8.0 _ +5.9

______12d _____+1.9 _ --1.1 _ --0.3 ___ --0.1 __ +5.4 _ +4.1 ___ +9.6 _ +8.4 _ +6.1

______13d _____+1.8 _ --1.0 _ --0.1 ___ +0.9 __ +5.3 _ +4.5 ___+10.0 _ +8.0 _ +6.0

______14d _____+2.0 _ --0.6 _ +0.1 ___ +2.3 __ +5.0 _ +5.1 ___ +9.5 _ +7.4 _ +5.9

 

______p21d ___ +2.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.7 ____ +2.3 _ +4.7 _ +5.0 ___ +7.0 _ +5.7 _ +5.2

 

______p31d ___ +0.2 _ --0.5 _ --0.2 ____ --1.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.2 ___ +3.2 _ +3.2 _ +3.0

 

first row of projections based on NWS 7-day forecasts.

 

second row is based on days 8 to end of month of the GFS with a look at 8-10 day guidance on ECM and GEM. Quite a volatile pattern towards the end so these estimates are very approximate indeed. Probably fair to say that all forecasts are still in the hunt.

[H2Otown_WX]

Through week 2:

 

BOS: +0.1

NYC: -0.6

DCA: +2.0

 

ATL: +5.0

IAH: +5.1

ORD: +2.3

 

DEN: +9.5

PHX: +7.4

SEA: +5.9

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, continuing on from my previous post with the countdown ...

________________DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH __ DEN __ PHX _ SEA

______ 15d ______+2.5 __--0.3 __+0.3 ___+3.2__+4.8 _+5.8 __+8.9 __+6.9 __+6.1
______ 16d ______+2.7 __+0.2 __+0.6 ___+3.6__+5.0 _+5.4 __+8.0 __+6.6 __+6.3
______ 17d ______+3.1 __+0.8 __+1.2 ___+3.4__+4.6 _+5.3 __+7.4 __+6.3 __+6.2
______ 18d ______+3.0 __+0.9 __+1.5 ___+3.0__+4.4 _+5.5 __+7.4 __+6.0 __+6.3
______ 19d ______+2.8 __+0.8 __+1.4 ___+3.0__+4.3 _+5.3 __+7.2 __+5.7 __+6.4
______ 20d ______+2.5 __+0.5 __+1.2 ___+3.1__+4.2 _+4.9 __+7.1 __+5.4 __+6.5
______ 21d ______+2.2 __+0.4 __+1.1 ___+3.3__+4.2 _+4.7 __+7.3 __+5.2 __+6.8
______ 22d ______+2.2 __+0.5 __+1.4 ___+3.5__+4.1 _+5.0 __+7.0 __+5.1 __+6.8
______ 23d ______+2.4 __+0.9 __+1.8 ___+4.1__+4.2 _+4.8 __+6.6 __+5.0 __+6.8
______ 24d ______+2.9 __+1.5 __+2.2 ___+4.4__+4.4 _+4.1 __+6.6 __+4.7 __+6.6
______ 25d ______+3.4 __+2.2 __+2.9 ___+4.8__+4.1 _+4.0 __+6.4 __+4.5 __+6.4
______ 26d ______+3.5 __+2.6 __+3.3 ___+5.3__+4.2 _+4.2 __+5.5 __+4.1 __+6.1
______ 27d ______+3.8 __+3.0 __+3.7 ___+5.6__+4.3 _+4.3 __+4.8 __+3.6 __+6.1
______ 28d ______+4.2 __+3.5__ +4.1 ___+5.6__+4.7 _+3.8 __+4.3 __+3.2 __+5.9
______ 29d ______+4.4 __+3.5__ +4.1 ___+5.3__+5.0 _+3.3 __+3.5 __+2.9 __+5.6
______ 30d ______+4.3 __+3.2__ +3.8 ___+4.8__+4.9 _+3.0 __+2.1 __+2.7 __+5.2

______ 31d _____+4.0 __+3.0 __+3.5 ___+4.3__+4.7 _+2.6 __+1.3 __+2.3 __+4.7

 

 (as of 0945h, Jan 1, bold numbers are final and confirmed)

 

Scoring tables are being updated to the end, and I have now posted an update on the "extreme forecasters" (a new show for the History Channel?) where seven of these nine qualified. See the table fot the details.  

 

Also of interest in our first snowfall contest, PHX forecasts contain risk of snow on night of Dec 31 into Jan 1 although this seems more likely at higher elevations around the city than at the airport, but it is possible and only three of our forecasters went for snow there.

 

As I commented earlier and edited out of the post, the main contest annual race was determined by the forecasts submitted when no contender established enough potential scoring advantage to overcome the lead, which was lucky for me because my December forecasts were pretty shabby on the whole and there might have been a bit more pointage available from the actuals. However, must say that Midlo came from a long way back at the mid-point of this contest to pass quite a few horses down the stretch.

 

Have posted a Jan 2015 contest thread -- no penalties until end of day Friday Jan 2nd (06z Jan 3) so enjoy your New Years celebrations and no rush for a forecast.

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for December 2014

 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ class __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ expan ___ TOTAL

 

_Confirmed anomalies ___ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.5 __ ^ __ +4.3 _ +4.7 _ +2.6

 

Midlo Snow Maker _______ 70 __ 82 __ 60 ___ 212 ___ 32 __ 66 __ 88 ___ 186 ____ 398

H2OTown_WX __________ 52 __ 58 __ 54 ___ 164 ___ 62 __ 66 __ 58 ___ 186 ____ 350

Cpick79 _______________ 70 __ 70 __ 38 ___ 178 ___ 38 __ 46 __ 76 ___ 160 ____ 338

OHweather_____________ 60 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 196 ___ 30 __ 34 __ 58 ___ 122 ____ 318

Absolute Humidity _______ 76 __ 98 __ 68 ___ 242 ___ 30 __ 00 __ 34 ___ 064 ____ 306

Mallow ________________ 50 __ 56 __ 34 ___ 140 ___ 24 __ 48 __ 78 ___ 150 ____ 290

wxallannj ______________ 54 __ 56 __ 24 ___ 134 ___ 00 __ 48 __ 98 ___ 146 ____ 280

metalicwx366 ___________46 __ 74 __ 52 ___ 172 ___ 10 __ 28 __ 60 ___ 098 ____ 270

bkviking _______________ 42 __ 50 __ 46 ___ 138 ___ 00 __ 48 __ 88 ___ 136 _ 274

_____ (-2%) ___________ 41 __ 49 __ 45 ___ 135 ___ 00 __ 47 __ 86 ___ 133 ____ 268

Quixotic1 (goobagooba) __ 40 __ 64 __ 48 ___ 152 ___ 34 __ 40 __ 28 ___ 102 ____ 254

SACRUS _______________ 48 __ 58 __ 18 ___ 124 ___ 18 __ 42 __ 68 ___ 128 ____ 252

SD ___________________ 40 __ 50 __ 20 ___ 110 ___ 34 __ 26 __ 78 ___ 138 ____ 248

Roger Smith ____________30 __ 48 __ 34 ___ 112 ___ 04 __ 36 __ 88 ___ 128 ____ 240

 

Consensus _____________ 40 __ 50 __ 34 ___ 124 ___ 10 __ 30 __ 58 ___ 098 ____ 222

 

 

stebo _________________ 44 __ 74 __ 60 ___ 178 ___ 00 __ 30 __ 08 ___ 038 ____ 216

Tom __________________ 36 __ 48 __ 34 ___ 118 ___ 04 __ 28 __ 56 ___ 088 ____ 206

Donsutherland.1_________ 18 __ 36 __ 32 ___ 086 ___ 10 __ 30 __ 74 ___ 114 ____ 200

hudsonvalley21 _________ 36 __ 48 __ 34 ___ 118 ___ 18 __ 08 __ 56 ___ 082 ____ 200

blazess556_____________ 14 __ 32 __ 30 ___ 076 ___ 08 __ 34 __ 78 ___ 120 ____ 196

Isotherm_______________20 __ 44 __ 38 ___ 102 ___ 56 __ 00 __ 36 ___ 092 ____ 194

Damage in Tolland _______38 __ 42 __ 26 ___ 106 ___ 04 __ 42 __ 20 ___ 066 ____ 172

 

Normal ________________20 __ 40 __ 30 ___ 090 ___ 14 __ 06 __ 48 ___ 068 ____ 158

 

RodneyS _______________10 __ 34 __ 38 ___ 082 ___ 22 __ 06 __ 26 ___ 054 ____ 136

Tenman Johnson ________00 __ 24 __ 20 ___ 044 ___ 00 __ 00 __ 32 ___ 032 ____ 076

ksammut ______________ 00 __ 00 __ 02 ___ 002 ___ 00 __ 34 __ 32 ___ 066 ____ 068

IntenseBlizzard2014______ 00 __ 10 __ 18 ___ 028 ___ 00 __ 00 __ 00 ___ 000 ____ 028

Uncle W _______________ 00 __ 00 __ 00 ___ 000 ___ 00 __ 00 __ 18 ___ 018 ____ 018

wxdude64 ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 ___ 000 ___ 00 __ 00 __ 00 ___ 000 ____ 000

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for optional western contest December 2014

 

 

 

 

FORECASTER _________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ TOTAL

 

 

_Confirmed anomalies ___ +1.3 _+2.3 _+4.7

 

 Quixotic1 (goobagooba) __98 __ 94 __ 26 _____ 218

Mallow ________________70 __ 74 __ 62 _____ 206

hudsonvalley21 _________84 __ 80 __ 38 _____ 202

 

Consensus _____________100__ 78 __ 24 _____ 202

   

blazess556_____________ 68 __ 78 __ 50 _____ 196

Midlo Snow Maker _______66 __ 72 __ 56 _____ 194

Donsutherland.1_________70 __ 74 __ 46 _____ 190

bkviking _______________82 __ 84 __ 28 __ 194

_____ (-2%) ___________80 __ 82 __ 27 _____ 189

Damage in Tolland _______68 __ 88 __ 40 _____ 186

Isotherm_______________ 64 __ 74 __ 48 _____ 186

SD ___________________ 86 __ 84 __ 16 _____ 186

wxdude64 _____________ 30 __ 90 __ 62 _____ 182

wxallannj ______________ 66 __ 78 __ 38 _____ 182

stebo _________________ 80 __ 92 __ 00 _____ 172

Cpick79 _______________ 84 __ 54 __ 22 _____ 160

RodneyS _______________78 __ 80 __ 00 _____ 158

Tom __________________ 82 __ 70 __ 00 _____ 152

IntenseBlizzard2014______ 66 __ 72 __ 12 _____ 150

OHweather_____________ 80 __ 66 __ 00 _____ 146

metalicwx366 ___________52 __ 66 __ 24 _____ 142

H2OTown_WX __________ 60 __ 78 __ 00 _____ 138

SACRUS _______________ 74 __ 64 __ 00 _____ 138

 

Normal ________________ 74 __ 54 __ 06 _____ 134

 

Absolute Humidity _______ 92 __ 34 __ 02 _____ 128

ksammut ______________100 __ 28 __ 00 _____ 128

Roger Smith ____________ 06 __ 94 __ 00 _____ 100

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA +0.9        

                                             

NYC: +0.1

 

BOS:  -0.2

 

ORD: -0.5

 

ATL: +1.8

 

IAH: -1/4

 

DEN: +2.9

 

PHX: +2.9

 

SEA: +1.7  

How come I'm not on the standings chart for this month?

[Roger Smith]

sorry I will fix that, probably your line got stripped by the odd way that this site handles edit post functions -- you are in my excel file anyway.

[Roger Smith]

(note -- best viewed at 100% not higher, prevents line overflow)

 

 

<<< ----------- Updated (final) Annual Scoring Report Jan-Dec 2014 ----------- >>>

 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS___CL ____ORD__ATL__IAH__EX____TOT____high scores

 

 

__Annual anomalies __ +0.1_--0.9_--0.5__ ,, __--2.1_--0.4_--1.4 ____ ,, ________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA....CL...EX....MO

 

 

Roger Smith _________ 852_864_804__2520__749_796_891___2436___4956___2 1 2 4 2 4 __ 1 _ 3_JAN,JUN,NOV

Midlo Snow Maker_____876_930_958__2764___609_728_758 ___2095___4859___0 3 0 1 3 1 __ 0 _ 2__DEC

OHweather __________891_899_941__2731___621_770_684 ___2075___4806___1 0 1 0 2 0 __ 1 _0__SEP

Mallow _____________ 814_ 836_864__2514___620_737_770___2127___4641___0 1 1 1 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

donsutherland.1 ______ 804_806_878__2488___614_718_808___2140___4628___0 1 1 0 1 1 __ 1 _ 1__APR

 

Consensus __________ 806_840_884__2530___562_734_760___2056___4586___1 0 0 0 2 0 __ 0 _ 0

 

Quixotic1 (goobagooba) 794_854_870__2518___625_682_708___2015___4533___0 1 2 1 1 0 __ 1 _ 0

Isotherm ___________ 802_794_814__2410___641_684 _752___2077___4487___1 1 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

blazess556 __________ 750_828_872__2450___499_708_792___1999___4449___0 1 1 0 1 0 __ 1 _ 1

Tom _______________ 763_797_827__2387___600_735_659___1994___4381___0 0 1 0 1 0___ 0 _ 0__OCT

hudsonvalley21 ______ 757_803_830__2390___521_671_774___1966___4356___0 0 0 0 1 0 __ 0 _ 0

cpick79 _____________725_746_809__2280___558_761_726___2045___4325___0 0 0 0 0 2 __ 0 _ 1 __JUL

Tenman Johnson _____ 794_750_760__2304___544_675_794___2013___4317___3 1 0 0 1 3 __ 3 _ 1__MAR

stebo ______________ 748_754_876__2378___436_692_730___1858___4236___2 1 1 1 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

metalicwx366 ________823_773_709__2305___622_648_648___1918___4223___1 0 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0

bkviking_____________767_752_830__2349___480_734_648___1862___4211___0 0 0 0 0 0 __ 0 _ 0 __MAY

 

 

Normal _____________ 668_666_762__2096___518_652_752___1922___4018___0 0 1 1 0 3 __ 1 _ 2

 

UncleW _____________616_660_792__2068___520_608_756___1884___3952___0 0 1 1 0 3 __ 0 _ 0

ksammut ____________696_704_750__2150___391_606_738___1735___3885___0 1 1 0 0 1 __ 1 _ 1__FEB

Damage in Tolland_____718_709_757__2184___532_627_518___1677___3861___1 0 0 0 1 0 __ 1 _ 0

SD _________________631_671_747__2049___489_663_650___1802___3851___0 0 0 1 1 0 __ 1 _ 0__AUG

wxdude64 __________ 679_711_789__2179___436_511_724___1671___3850___1 0 0 0 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

RodneyS ____________602_696_792__2090___416_460_692___1568___3658___0 1 0 1 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

wxallannj (5)_________292_274_250___ 816___250_274_364 ___888 ___1704___0 0 0 2 0 1 __ 0 _ 2

SACRUS (5) __________300_298_264__ 862___221_266_336 ___823 ___1685___0 0 0 0 0 1 __ 0 _ 0

H20Town_Wx (3) _____ 217_194_226__ 637___151_154_122___ 427___ 1064___0 0 1 1 1 0 __ 0 _ 1

Chicago Storm (3)______186_153_148__ 487___117_134_ 97 ___ 348____835

weatherdude @ (3) _____66_120_150__ 336 ___115__96_126___ 337____673___0 0 0 0 1 0 __ 0 _ 0

IntenseBlizzard2014 (2) _78 _ 90_ 84___252 ___ 92 __76 __84___252____504

mikehobbyst (1)_______ 84__ 92_ 78__ 254 ___ 64__68__ 80___ 212 ____466

chaser25973 (1) _______94__ 92_ 88__ 274 ___ 32__44__ 82___ 158 ____432___1 0 0 0 0 0 __ 1 _ 0

Absolute Humidity (2) __110_132_102__ 344 ___ 36__00__34___ 070 ____414___1 0 1 0 0 0 __ 1 _ 0

Quincy (1) ___________ 54__66__ 42___162 ___38__82 __92___212____ 374

TropicalAnalystwx13 (1)_ 88__44__ 76___208 ___ 26__76 __60___162____370

swflow (1) ___________ 74__66__ 82___222 ___ 90__36__00 ___126____348

OrangeburgWx (1)_____ 54__90__ 88___ 232 ___00__ 24__00___024____ 256

wintersgrasp (1) _______78__62__ 76___216 ___ 15__ 00__00___015____ 231

CSheridan12 (1) _______46__04__ 00___ 50 ___ 12 __ 86__44___144____192

__________________________________

(number of months played in brackets unless played all 12)

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Updated Final Annual Scores for Optional western contest (Jan-Dec 2014)

 

 

SET TO 100% SCREEN TO PREVENT LINE OVERFLOW.

 

____________________ DEN_PHX_SEA __________ best forecast awards ____ four season award ___ all 9

Annual anomalies _____--0.3_+2.3 _+2.8_______DEN PHX SEA _ Months ___Win,Spr,Sum,Aut TOT

 

 

 

 

Isotherm ____________840__898__869___2607 ___ 0 0 0 _ _ 0 _ _ _ _ __10, 4,10, 3 (27)___ 7094 ( 5)

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 804__958__827___2589 ___ 2 1 2 __ 1 __ OCT ___ 4,10, 6, 5 (25)___ 7448 ( 1)

donsutherland.1 ______838__866 __849___2553 ___ 0 1 1 __ 1 __JUL,SEP_ 1, 6, 7, 7 (21) ___ 7181 ( 4)

Mallow _____________ 860__856__833___2549 ___ 3 0 2 __ 3_FEB,APR,JUN_6, 7, 3, 1 (17)___ 7190 ( 3)

 

Consensus ___________878__840__741___2459 ___2 0 1 ___1 __ APR ____2, 6, 2, 1 (11)___ 7045 ( 6)

 

Quixotic1 (goobagooba) 834__896__673___2403 ___ 1 2 0 __ 2 _JAN, DEC_ 7, 1, 1, 0 ( 9) ___ 6936 ( 6)

metalicwx366 ________ 731__845__708___2284 _______________NOV___ 1, 1, 0, 4 ( 6) ___ 6507 ( 9)

blazess556 ___________750__774__746___2270 ___ 1 0 2 __ 0 _ _ _ _ ___5, 1 ,2, 0 ( 8) ___ 6719 ( 7)

Damage in Tolland ____ 642__858__752___2252 ___ 0 1 0 __ 1___ MAY __0, 3, 0, 6 ( 9) ___ 6113 (13)

Roger Smith _________ 690__802__747___2239 ___ 1 1 2 __ 0 __________2, 0, 4, 0 ( 6) ___ 7195 ( 2)

wxdude64 ___________ 760__766__713___2239____1 0 2 __ 0 __________3, 0, 1, 1 ( 5) ___ 6089 (15)

bkviking _____________759__807__594___2160____0 1 0 __ 1 __ MAR ___ 0, 2, 0, 0 ( 2) ___ 6371 (11)

SD _________________ 604__775__653___2032 ___0 2 0 __ 0 __________0, 0, 0,10 (10)____ 5883 (17)

Tom ________________701__739__575___2015_______________________ 1, 0, 0, 0 ( 1) ___ 6396 (10)

hudsonvalley21 (11)____732__715__554___2001 ______________________0, 0, 1, 0 ( 1) ____ 6357 (12)

 

Normal _____________ 830__610__558___1998 ______________________________________6016 (16)

 

 

RodneyS ____________ 866__470__507___1843 ___1 1 1 __ 1 ___ AUG __ 0, 0, 5, 0 ( 5) ____ 5501 (19)

OHweather __________ 616__625__594___1835_______________________0, 0, 0, 1 ( 1) ____ 6641 ( 8)

ksammut ____________708__526__569___1803 ___1 0 0 ______________________________ 5668 (18)

cpick79 (11) _________ 646__683__452___1781 ___0 0 1 ______________ 0, 5, 0, 0 ( 5) ____ 6106 (14)
Stebo _______________730__536__416___1682 ______________________________________ 5918 (16)

wxallannj (5) _________ 260__374__201___ 835 ___0 1 0 __ 0 __________0, 0, 0, 2 ( 2)_____2539

H20Town_Wx (3) _____ 276__269__207 ___752_______________________________________1786

SACRUS (5) __________ 214__290__207___ 683 ______________________________________2396

Chicago Storm (3) _____172__108__162____442 ______________________________________1277

IntenseBlizzard2014 (2) _116__164__ 12____ 292 ______________________________________ 796

Absolute Humidity (2) __162___60___68____ 290 ______________________________________ 704

Quincy (1) ___________ 84__100___80 ____264 __ 0 1 0 ___ 0 __________________________ 638

Mikehobbyst (1) ______ 100__ 66___52 ____218 __ 1 0 0 ___ 0 __________________________ 684
OrangeburgWx (1)_____ 36___76__ 96 ____ 208 __ 0 0 1 ___ 0 __________________________ 464

wintersgrasp (1) _______28___80___82____ 190 _______________________________________ 421

swflow (1) ___________ 61___90___40 ____191___0 1 0 ___ 0 ___________________________539
TropicalAnalystwx13 (1) _54 __00___92____ 146 ________________________________________516

CSheridan12 (1) _______00___84___00_____ 84 __ 0 1 0 ___ 0 ___________________________276

weatherdude (1) _______12___08___30_____ 50 _______________________________________ 723

chaser25973 (1) _______00___24___00_____ 24 _______________________________________ 458

_______________________________________________________

(numbers in brackets show the number of western contests played, if less than 12, and they  may have played more months in the other contest for the annual "all nine" totals) --

For Tenman Johnson and UncleW these "all nine" totals are the same as the main contest, 4339 and 3934.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Table (updated for December)

 

 

The table has been copied from its previous (November) location and updated for December.  SEA and PHX fell out of contention when more than two forecasts fell on the extreme side of the anomaly. This reminds me to mention that the "losses" tabulated below are still in most cases better than consensus forecasts (as second of two more extreme than actual anomaly cases listed separately at end of table).

 

An extreme forecast is defined as one of these two situations:

 

(.A.) the anomaly was greater than or equal to any forecast (in the same sign direction in all cases) or

(.B.) where there was one forecast greater, and if so, whether that one was closest or not.

 

... Names are somewhat abbreviated, hope you can recognize the culprits. Late penalties could influence results of actual high score as opposed to closest forecast, but after revision of the larger penalties March to May, that was no longer the case.

 

MONTH ______ STATION ______ ANOMALY _____ EXTREME FORECAST same sign ___ actual closest forecast__ type

 

Dec ___________ DCA _________ +4.0 __________ +2.8 Absolute Humidity ________ <-- this ________ A

Dec ___________ NYC _________ +3.0 __________ +3.1 Absolute Humidity ________ <-- this ________ B

Dec ___________ BOS _________ +3.5 __________ +1.8 Absoute Humidity _________<-- this ________ A

Dec ___________ ORD _________ +4.3 __________ +2.4 H2OTown_Wx ___________ <-- this ________ A

Dec ___________ ATL _________ +4.7 __________ +3.0 Midlo and H2OTown_______ <-- this ________ A

Dec ___________ IAH _________ +2.6 __________ +2.5 Wxallannj _______________ <-- this ________ A

Dec ___________ SEA _________ +4.7 __________ +2.8 Mallow and wxdude64 _____ <-- this ________ A

Nov ___________ DCA _________ -1.6 __________ --1.5 Tenman and Roger ________ <-- these ______ A

Nov ___________ NYC _________ -2.4 __________ --1.9 Midlo and Orangeburgwx ___ <-- these ______A

Nov ___________ BOS _________ -2.2 __________ --2.2 Roger __________________ <-- this ________ A

Nov ___________ ORD _________ -6.7 __________ -4.5 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A

Nov ___________ ATL __________ -5.0 __________ -2.0 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A

Nov ___________ IAH __________ -4.9 __________ -2.0 Roger ___________________ <-- this ________A

Nov ___________ DEN _________ -2.1 __________ -3.5 Roger __________________ -1.7 RodneyS ____ B

Nov ___________ PHX _________ +2.0 _________ +2.2 Wxallannj _______________ +2.0 Damage____ B

Oct ____________DCA _________ +3.4 _________ +3.1 chaser25973 _____________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________NYC _________ +2.7 _________ +2.5 stebo ___________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________BOS _________ +2.4 _________ +2.0 stebo ___________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________ATL __________ +3.1 _________ +2.1 Tom ___________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________DEN _________ +4.3 __________ +1.8 Midlo __________________ <-- this ________A

Oct ____________PHX _________ +3.3 __________ +2.0 SD _____________________ <-- this _______A

Oct ____________SEA __________+5.2 __________ +2.5 Mallow __________________<-- this ________A

Sep ____________ATL _________ +2.3 __________ +2.2 goobagooba _____________ <-- this ________A

Sep ___________ DEN _________ +1.3 __________ +1.3 blazess556 _____________ <-- this ________ A

Sep ___________ SEA __________ +3.5 __________ +1.8 donsutherland.1 _________ <-- this ________A

Aug ___________ ORD _________ +1.3 ___________ +1.1 wxallannj ______________ <-- this _______ A

Aug ___________ PHX _________ --2.0 ___________ -1.5 RodneyS ________________ <-- this _______ A

Aug ___________ SEA _________ +3.0 ___________ +3.8 Roger __________________<-- this ________B

July ___________ DCA _________ --0.4 ___________ --0.5 Tenman ________________ <-- this ________B

July ___________ NYC _________ --0.4 ___________ --0.5 Tenman ________________ <-- this ________B

July ___________ ORD _________ --3.6 ___________ -2.5 RodneyS ________________ <-- this ________A

July ___________ ATL __________ --2.3 __________ --0.6 Hudson _________________ <-- this ________A

July ___________ SEA __________ +3.5 __________ +2.7 RodneyS ________________ <-- this ________A

June __________ ORD __________ +2.0 __________ +1.6 Roger __________________ <-- this ________A

May ___________ DCA __________ +2.5 __________ +2.1 metallic_________________ <-- this ________A

May ___________ NYC __________ +1.6 __________ +1.4 blazes __________________ <--this ________A

May ___________ ORD __________+1.3 __________ +2.5 Roger __________________ Midlo (+0.5) ____B

May ___________ IAH __________ --2.8 __________ --2.1 ksammut _______________ <-- this ________ A

May ___________ SEA __________ --3.1 __________ --2.7 Damage ________________<-- this ________ A

Mar ___________ DCA __________ --3.9 __________ --4.0 Tenman ________________ <-- this ________B

Mar ___________ NYC __________ --4.8 __________ --4.2 ksammut _______________ <-- this ________A

Mar ___________ BOS __________ --4.8 __________ --5.2 ksammut _______________ <-- this ________B

Mar ___________ ATL __________ --1.8 __________ --4.0 Tenman ________________ --1.7 OHwx _____B

Mar ___________ IAH __________ --3.9 __________ --4.0 Tenman ________________<--this _________B

Mar ___________ PHX __________ --3.8 _________ --3.7 swflow __________________ <-- this _______ A

Mar ___________ SEA __________ --2.0 _________ --4.8 swflow __________________ --2.0 cpick79 ___ B

Feb ___________ NYC __________ --3.7 _________ --2.2 Midlo ___________________ <-- this ________A

Feb ___________ BOS __________ --2.7 _________ --2.1 gooba^2 _______________ <-- this ________ A

Feb ___________ ORD _________ --10.4 _________ --5.0 gooba^2 _______________ <--this _________A

Feb ___________ IAH ___________ --1.7 _________ --2.8 midlo __________________ --1.6 uncleW ____B

Feb ___________ DEN ___________ --4.3 _________ --3.4 Mallow ________________ <-- this ________ A

Feb ___________ PHX ___________ +4.7 _________ +4.0 csheridan ______________ <--this _________A

Jan ___________ DCA ___________ --3.8 _________ --3.9 metallic _______________ --3.8 Roger _____ B

Jan ___________ NYC ___________ --4.0 _________ --4.1 metallic _______________ --4.0 Roger _____ B

Jan ___________ ORD ___________ --8.2 _________ --8.6 Roger ________________ <-- this _________B

Jan ___________ ATL ___________ --6.3 _________ --5.2 Roger _________________ <-- this ________ A

Jan ___________ IAH ___________ --3.6 _________ --3.2 Roger _________________ <-- this _________A

Jan ___________ PHX ___________ +3.5 _________ +3.0 gooba^2 _______________ <--this ________ A

Jan ___________ SEA ___________ +2.3 _________ +2.4 Roger _____________ tied with Tom (+2.2) _ B

 

Two cases where second most extreme forecast of only two cases was closest:

 

May __________ PHX ___________ +2.4 _________ +2.6 Mallow ______________ +2.5 SD _______ B-2

Mar __________ ORD ___________ --6.2 _________ --7.2 swflow ____________ --6.4 Roger ______ B-2

 

Summing up, 61 cases in all (out of 108 in the calendar year). 42 were of "A" type which include two exact matches and 17 plus the additional 2 were of "B" type. Of those, the most extreme forecast won the month in 54 of 61 cases (all of the As and 12/19 of the Bs) and there was one tie among the winning B cases, and two in November as well as in December among the A cases. Otherwise six went to the second most extreme forecast which was seldom far from the actual with one exception (see ORD for May). In most cases, a "B loss" is still one of the higher scores for that month so the term "loss" is relative.

 

This seems quite anomalous compared to previous years when these results might happen once or twice a season.

 

Table leaders for these "extreme forecasts" (the two B-2 cases are counted as a B win plus a B loss, no B loss high score) ... the forecaster record counts all types of wins vs the one type of loss (which basically amounts to going too extreme against the entire field). Note that "A" wins are automatic, forecaster not as extreme as actual anomaly.

 

* shared a win

 

FORECASTER _________ "A" (win) ___ "B" (win) ___ "B" (loss) ____ high score vs "B" loss, counts as win

 

Roger Smith (14-2)**____ 8 ____________ 4 _________ 1 __________ 2

MidloSnowMaker (6-0)** _5 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

Tenman Johnson (5-1)* __1 ____________4 _________ 1

goobagooba (4-0) ______ 4 ____________ 0 _________ 0

RodneyS (4-0) _________ 3 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

ksammut (3-0) _________ 2 ____________ 1 _________ 0

 

Absolute Humidity (3-0) __ 2 ____________ 1 _________ 0

 

Mallow (3-1)*__________ 3 ____________ 0 _________ 1

blazess556 (2-0) ________2 ____________ 0 _________ 0

Tom (2-0)*____________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

SD (2-0) ______________ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

stebo (2-0) ____________ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 0

Damage in Tolland (2-0) __1 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

Mallow (3-1)*__________ 3 ____________ 0 _________ 1

wxallannj (2-1) _________ 2 ____________ 0 _________ 1

donsutherland.1 (1-0)____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

hudsonvalley21 (1-0) ____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

OrangeburgWx (1-0)* ____1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

OHweather (1-0) ________0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

UncleW (1-0) __________ 0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

cpick79 (1-0 ) __________0 ____________ 0 _________ 0 __________ 1

csheridan12 (1-0) ______ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

chaser25973 (1-0) ______1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

Isotherm (1-0) _________1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

wxdude64 (1-0)* _______1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

H2OTown_wx (1-0)* ____1 ____________ 0 _________ 0

swflow (1-2) ___________1 ____________ 0 _________ 2

metalicwx366 (1-2) _____ 1 ____________ 0 _________ 2

[RodneyS]

Congratulations to Roger and Midlo for their 2014 victories.  I think I was out it by Presidents' Day, but this year will attempt to stay alive until at least Memorial Day.

[Roger Smith]

Hey, you were high human for DEN (Consensus is indicated as the winner in the annual table above). And Isotherm was best in the west by a narrow margin. Here's a list of some of the winners of different categories (and runners up to 10th for groups and just first/second/third for stations). When Consensus or Normal score high enough, rank is shown but does not reduce following human forecaster ranks.

 

REGULAR CONTEST

___________________

 

1. Roger Smith

2. Midlo Snow Maker

3. OHweather

4. Mallow

5. DonSutherland.1

6. (Consensus and) Quixotic1 (goobagooba)

7. Isotherm

8. blazess556

9. Tom

10. hudsonvalley21

 

(Eastern three DCA, NYC, BOS)

 

1. Midlo Snow Maker

2. OHweather

3. (Consensus and) Roger Smith

4. Quixotic1 (goobagooba)

5. Mallow

6. DonSutherland.1

7. blazess556

8. Isotherm

9. Hudsonvalley21

10. Tom

 

Central (expanded three, ORD, ATL, IAH)

 

1. Roger Smith

2. DonSutherland.1

3. Mallow

4. Midlo Snow Maker

5. Isotherm

6. OHweather

7. (Consensus and) Cpick79

8. Quixotic1 (goobagooba)

9. Tenman Johnson

10. blazess556

 

(Western three -- DEN, PHX, SEA)

 

1. Isotherm

2. Midlo Snow Maker

3. DonSutherland.1

4. Mallow

5. (Consensus and) Quixotic1 (goobagooba)

6. metallicwx366

7. blazess556

8. Damage in Tolland

9. Roger Smith, wxdude64 (tied)

 

ALL NINE STATIONS COMBINED

 

1. Midlo Snow Maker

2. Roger Smith

3. Mallow

4. DonSutherland.1

5. Isotherm

6. (Consensus and) Quixotic.1 (goobagooba)

7. Blazess556

8. OHweather

9. metallicwx366

10. Tom

 

STATION TOP THREE SCORES

 

DCA -- OHweather, Midlo Snow Maker, Roger Smith

NYC -- Midlo Snow Maker, OHweather, Roger Smith

BOS -- Midlo Snow Maker, OHweather, DonSutherland.1

 

ORD -- Roger Smith, Isotherm, Quixotic1 (goobagooba)

ATL -- Roger Smith, OHweather, Mallow

IAH -- Roger Smith, DonSutherland.1, Tenman Johnson

 

DEN -- (Consensus then) RodneyS, Mallow, Isotherm

PHX -- Midlo Snow Maker, Isotherm, Quixotic1 (goobagooba)

SEA -- Isotherm, DonSutherland.1, Mallow

 

 

 

MOST "Best month" wins (see also table of extreme forecasts above, fairly similar results)

_________________________________________________

 

1. Roger Smith 19 (15 regular contest, 4 western)

2. Midlo Snow Maker 13 (8 and 5)

3. Mallow 8 (3 and 5)

3. Quixotic1 (goobagooba) 8 (5 and 3)

3. Tenman Johnson 8 (8, not entered in western)

 

You can find the best monthly scores fairly easily in the tables. Just about every regular (we had 21 and two more who joined in August and played regularly after that) bagged some sort of high score, and I promise to ease off (actually return to form would be more likely) now that I had my little rampage.

 

Hope everyone enjoyed the year and we still have results to determine in the first snowfall contest (last update back on page one of this thread will be moved into January fairly soon).

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Congrats roger 2nd year in second for me. Thanks for doing all this!!

[Roger Smith]

_{Yes but first overall for the nine stations -- so that's a win overall and a really solid performance second half, confirmed as I was just checking for a report to our two regular new guys, Wxallannj and SACRUS.}

 

_{So here's what I found looking at scores for just the five months August to December when they participated:}

 

_{Wxallannj was 10th overall in the main contest (out of 23) and 8th overall in the west (out of 21).}

 

_{SACRUS was 11th overall in the main contest and 18th overall in the west.}

 

_{Both of you were scoring relatively higher in the "expanded" (central) portion than the eastern. There, wxallannj was 3rd and SACRUS was 8th.}

 

_{So that gives us a better picture of where you ranked in the contest once you got started.}

 

[WEATHER53]

Congratulations to Roger and Midlo for their 2014 victories.  I think I was out it by Presidents' Day, but this year will attempt to stay alive until at least Memorial Day.

 Roger and rest of top 5 are all excellent.

Roger ran it to perfection and WON it!

Roger Smith=Bond. James Bond

[Damage In Tolland]

Unlucky 13th place for me. I'll take it

[wxdude64]

Haha! A complete shutout on original 6 in Dec. That has to be recorded in the 'record events' too I believe!

Congrats to the winners!

[Quixotic1]

Thanks Roger and congrats!