phoenixny Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 We will see what happens. Banding with this should be good early on but how far back does it go? NAM has backed off on western extent of heavier precip and weakens it as well. The track is usually a good one for us. Backlash may be more impressive than western flank of precip shield. Lots of moisture, low shear and lake enhancement could surprise??? LEK is right. This track with a colder airmass and a strengthening storm near NYC would of made for some very high snowfall rates in that deformation band. Board has been quiet this late fall/early winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 WTF is the NAM doing??? Hilarious. Hope it's right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The NAM is officially a joke. 6 hours after giving nothing to all points north and west of BGM, it has 1-2 feet across all of CNY and ENY, with 6-12 in WNY. If I had to bet I think the 0z will be much closer to the final solution with regards to the track, but the precip is probably overdone as it usually is on the NeverAccurateModel. Edit: Wow. The backlash snow is still going strong on Friday morning at the end of the run. Could be quite a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 WTF is the NAM doing??? Hilarious. Hope it's right though. George was right...NAM qpf back with a vengeance on 00z run. I esp like the lull that occurs on the NAM around 36-42 hrs, only to come back full retard over CNY for the next 12 hrs. It's got issues...seems to lose slp definition also around this timeframe...although this system will be a struggle for most any NWP to exactly nail. My conference in Albany was changed to a webex meeting so I'll be able to sit home and break out the popcorn for this beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Congrats Central New York, you guys deserve this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 George was right...NAM qpf back with a vengeance on 00z run. I esp like the lull that occurs on the NAM around 36-42 hrs, only to come back full retard over CNY for the next 12 hrs. It's got issues...seems to lose slp definition also around this timeframe...although this system will be a struggle for most any NWP to exactly nail. My conference in Albany was changed to a webex meeting so I'll be able to sit home and break out the popcorn for this beauty. You forgot the Reds Apple Ale along with that popcorn. I went through quite a few of them during our LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You forgot the Reds Apple Ale along with that popcorn. I went through quite a few of them during our LES event. that's a damn good idea! I usually drink drier red wine as it has less sugar (low carb diet here)...but splurging once in a while isnt a bad thing. . Will be interesting to see what GEM and GFS bring to the table next. I'd think BUF to ROC end up doing well with this also. Hopefully we all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some are speculating that the RAP and NAM are closing off much more quickly at 500mb, which would lead to more westerly solution that would increase snowfall across the region. Something to keep an eye on. Also, the 0z GFS just came in a bit stronger with the low and increased snowfall across CNY and ENY, although it cut back a bit in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some are speculating that the RAP and NAM are closing off much more quickly at 500mb, which would lead to more westerly solution that would increase snowfall across the region. Something to keep an eye on. Also, the 0z GFS just came in a bit stronger with the low and increased snowfall across CNY and ENY, although it cut back a bit in WNY. Yep, GFS showing a similar qpf max idea as NAM, around SYR. Not sure I'm a buyer, as qpf tends to be one of the more unreliable panels...esp with banded structures. Basically, one more model cycle tomorrow morning and then it's Nowcast time. I am becoming more convinced that liquid ptype will be minimal in CNY, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Some are speculating that the RAP and NAM are closing off much more quickly at 500mb, which would lead to more westerly solution that would increase snowfall across the region. Something to keep an eye on. Also, the 0z GFS just came in a bit stronger with the low and increased snowfall across CNY and ENY, although it cut back a bit in WNY. Not to be a jerk, but can you say who is speculating? I watch very closely and none of the recent 0z models say the low is taking a more western track as compared to say the 12z or 18z models. I don't like this storm for WNY, unless Lake Ontario wakes up in a big way. Very weird storm. I saw those maxes near Syracuse and basically discounted them, storm is too far OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Posted this in North New England thread: What do you think the max snowfall total will be in the next 96 hours, at locations under 3000 ft ? (i.e. not Mount Washington). I am seeing the 12z GFS show up to 3" of total QPF for the middle of Maine. This area looks warm(ish) at 850mb for a long time though, so there won't be 30" of snow there. Based on this web site: http://coolwx.com/ptype it looks like some sections of all mountains/hills (ME/NH/VT/NY) could get 1.25" of QPF in the form of snow, possibly up to 15" of snow if things stay a little cold. A 12:1 snow ratio might be the max snow ratio you might get in the low mountains/hills. Also of note: the 18z GFS has a lot of freezing rain for Burlington or Montpelier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The latest run of the Canadian model seems to track the low further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 The latest run of the Canadian model seems to track the low further east. I think I'm tossing that run. It keeps the low retrograding for 120 hours straight with impulses passing through all week from the northeast to southwest. Unreal lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 my concern is that wny is relying more and more on an anemic, retrograde low that drops precip over 72 hours or more. And not starting until the 3rd period. To put ANY faith in that type of scenario is a bit crazy I think. The models that did show a thump from the intitial storm have all moved east. So we have to wait for it to get to burlington before seeing a 'significant' snow storm. No. Our best bet from Rochester east is that this hard to predict storm once again jogs to the west and begins hammering at us tuesday late thru weds with serious Lake Effect enhancement from Ontario. And Im not seeing a single model that does this since the 12 z euro, and even that was a bit too Far East. I WILL be waiting for tonites euro (even though its out of its golden range). I cant put a lot of faith in all the other ones as they've been all over the place- except for the RGEM- which has just recently gone east. just my 2 cents. not putting a lot on the table for this one. Sorry snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 my concern is that wny is relying more and more on an anemic, retrograde low that drops precip over 72 hours or more. And not starting until the 3rd period. To put ANY faith in that type of scenario is a bit crazy I think. The models that did show a thump from the intitial storm have all moved east. So we have to wait for it to get to burlington before seeing a 'significant' snow storm. No. Our best bet from Rochester east is that this hard to predict storm once again jogs to the west and begins hammering at us tuesday late thru weds with serious Lake Effect enhancement from Ontario. And Im not seeing a single model that does this since the 12 z euro, and even that was a bit too Far East. I WILL be waiting for tonites euro (even though its out of its golden range). I cant put a lot of faith in all the other ones as they've been all over the place- except for the RGEM- which has just recently gone east. just my 2 cents. not putting a lot on the table for this one. Sorry snow lovers. I don't think most are expecting this to be a large storm. Temperatures are marginal, snow fall rates are light/moderate, and most of the strong dynamics are well East. Here is Dons latest map. He lowered the totals a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not to be a jerk, but can you say who is speculating? I watch very closely and none of the recent 0z models say the low is taking a more western track as compared to say the 12z or 18z models. I don't like this storm for WNY, unless Lake Ontario wakes up in a big way. Very weird storm. I saw those maxes near Syracuse and basically discounted them, storm is too far OTS. Steven DiMartino, among others who know more about models than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=nam4&run_time=06z¶m=24hoursnow&map=NE&run_hour=51 so this changes everything. lol. which is why im not a meteorolgist. just when i give up on a storm, it comes back around. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Oh wow, I guess the forecasts were wrong. Breaks in the clouds right here in Ithaca now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Ice pellets / sleet in Liverpool. Temp is 30F. Very stylish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 my concern is that wny is relying more and more on an anemic, retrograde low that drops precip over 72 hours or more. And not starting until the 3rd period. To put ANY faith in that type of scenario is a bit crazy I think. The models that did show a thump from the intitial storm have all moved east. So we have to wait for it to get to burlington before seeing a 'significant' snow storm. No. Our best bet from Rochester east is that this hard to predict storm once again jogs to the west and begins hammering at us tuesday late thru weds with serious Lake Effect enhancement from Ontario. And Im not seeing a single model that does this since the 12 z euro, and even that was a bit too Far East. I WILL be waiting for tonites euro (even though its out of its golden range). I cant put a lot of faith in all the other ones as they've been all over the place- except for the RGEM- which has just recently gone east. just my 2 cents. not putting a lot on the table for this one. Sorry snow lovers. Serious lake enhancement should not be words you use with this storm. Very minor, almost imperceptible lake enhancement is more like it. Delta T's and surface temps are pretty marginal. I think 4-8 looks reasonable for the ROC. Just a fun couple of snowy days, nothing more, nothing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Just posting latest model runs to see which one does the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro has a pretty good hit on the Niagara Frontier on Thursday I believe. Lunch is over, talk to you guys later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 KBGM 1pm update... H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMALTHRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT AMIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIRBEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONESAFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHESOF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLTHRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWOACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHERELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION. WL DRASTICALLY BE REDUCING SNOWTOTALS FOR THIS EVENT AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DECISION ONWHETHER TO CANCEL OR DROP WARNINGS DOWN TO ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Bustolysis oozing from KBGM's afternoon AFD update. We knew this wasn't gonna be easy...BGM will prob haul down WSW's and BUF end up raising them, as this storm exacts max pain from everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Rain and warm right here in ithaca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 BGM dropped the Warnings across northern PA but kept them, albeit with reduced amounts, across the rest of the area. Almost every model besides the RUC and HRRR support warning-level snowfalls, but it's hard to say what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Does KBGM even put out a snowfall map? Can't find it on the redesigned website. KBUF at least links it off the main page when they have a current map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landscaper Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 KBGM has it on the bottom of the weather briefing page under storm total forecast http://www.weather.gov/bgm/briefingMain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 18z NAM went crazy again, it has the main precip shield moving into CNY between 8 and midnight this evening and keeps the wraparound going until Friday. If you look at the radar the system has clearly started to pivot to the left and edge west. My main concern ATM is temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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