BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS clown, neva gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 A COASTAL LOW WILL FORM TUESDAY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THEN MOVE NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND STALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT SHOULD TURN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MAINLY WET SNOW. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE EXPECTED AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ANOTHER SOURCE OF LOCAL FORECAST INFORMATION FOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 thats the most bullish map ive seen yet. good find. it WILL be tough to wind up accums with temps being marginal and the fact that much of the precip comes down slowly and over an extended period of time. Rochester met Josh Nichols calling for 6-12 but cautions a difficult storm. Good track for south Lake Ontario counties though. keep the maps and info coming guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Awesome, keep us updated. Should be a fun storm to track, whereever it ends up snowing. Retrograding lows are fun and complicated. Our weekly forecast writer liked rain for Syracuse and most of Oswego/Onondaga counties and for the most part the rest of the team wanted to be really conservative with adding snow in the forecast. Nowhere near the optimism on this board or how I feel about the storm right now but it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Our weekly forecast writer liked rain for Syracuse and most of Oswego/Onondaga counties and for the most part the rest of the team wanted to be really conservative with adding snow in the forecast. Nowhere near the optimism on this board or how I feel about the storm right now but it is what it is Yeah, pretty much agree. HPC seems a tad more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah, pretty much agree. HPC seems a tad more bullish. Its going to be a really marginal temperature profile especially along the lake but the GFS/ECM don't seem to mind that. What happena wrt the retrograding low/secondary vort max that rotates through will be really difficult to pin down. Either way I feel alright with 4-8" here but overall confidence is quite low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Its going to be a really marginal temperature profile especially along the lake but the GFS/ECM don't seem to mind that. What happena wrt the retrograding low/secondary vort max that rotates through will be really difficult to pin down. Either way I feel alright with 4-8" here but overall confidence is quite low Agreed. Not to often do retrograding lows produce much here in terms of snowfall, especially in instances of marginal temperatures. Also, snowfall rates are rarely high with these types of systems due to all of the dynamics being to far away. Deformation zone snows can sometimes surprise across the Niagara frontier though "IF" lake Ontario enhancement comes into play. But tempertures look marginal at best for that. So I am not expecting much, but will be fun to see how this one evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 i like that the euro and now the nam are showing really good temps at the 850. nam showing -10 for the late portion of the storm. and you all know what that means. Lake Ontario enters the game! and in a big way. someone is gonna get walloped. I'm thinking the southern counties from rochester west. 8-12" tuesday nite thru friday am. interesting storm. the other sweet spot might be the SE fingerlakes, if the 'original' storm is far enough west. for the rest of WNY, we will have to wait until wednesday, and with a retrograde storm, soooooo many things WILL change. So no bets on snowfall. We could just as likely see light rain with sleet mixing in at times, esp if the anemic precip rates happen during diurnal heating hrs. Fun stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hi I am Norm. I am new to the area and enjoy the weather in central New York. Nice to meet you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The RGEM is a great model but its struggling with the BL on this system, way too warm and it is indeed out of the RGEM's range a bit right now...it thinks places like SYR are going to be rain, its depiction clearly thinks its an elevation event but my guess is this is snowy even into the valleys if you're near or west of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The RGEM is a great model but its struggling with the BL on this system, way too warm and it is indeed out of the RGEM's range a bit right now...it thinks places like SYR are going to be rain, its depiction clearly thinks its an elevation event but my guess is this is snowy even into the valleys if you're near or west of 81. Wow, snowy for Ithaca!! I hope the road crews are ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Wow, snowy for Ithaca!! I hope the road crews are ready You really are new to Ithaca! LOL. At any rate, this storm is looking good for CNY. General 6-10 seems like a good bet for whole 3-day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 WSW's out now for most of the area. Should be interesting to watch this play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 You really are new to Ithaca! LOL. At any rate, this storm is looking good for CNY. General 6-10 seems like a good bet for whole 3-day period. Do they do a good job? I have travel plans. Winter storm watch posted!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Do they do a good job? I have travel plans. Winter storm watch posted!! You would be hard pressed to find a locality anywhere in WNY or CNY that would have difficulty keeping major roads clear from a <12" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By 00z (or a few hours later), most areas in CNY will not have to deal with P-type issues...as a matter of fact, 12z NAM is coming in colder (at least at 850...about .75-1.0 degree C) for most of CNY. Once occlusion begins, precip field over E/C NYS will expand westward...period of heaviest snows with this long event will be tomorrow night into midday Wed. Def. zone will be somewhere between SYR and BUF...so ROC seems in a good spot...maybe a bit further east than that.... LES potential from Wed. night into Fri. morn needs to be watched....lots of ambient moisture, decent ambient instability, and delta's that are going to be VERY close to adding instability...along with somewhat decent fetch as we get into Thurs...depending on your model of choice.... These long drawn out, intermittent type storms seem to always disappoint wrt to snow lovers (because of the intermittent nature....but when all is said and done...official snowfall totals over 4 days should be north of 12" for most of CNY...and much more for the highest elevations...(some 30" lollies in some select locations of the Catskills, Adirondacks/Greens..etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By 00z (or a few hours later), most areas in CNY will not have to deal with P-type issues...as a matter of fact, 12z NAM is coming in colder (at least at 850...about .75-1.0 degree C) for most of CNY. Once occlusion begins, precip field over E/C NYS will expand westward...period of heaviest snows with this long event will be tomorrow night into midday Wed. Def. zone will be somewhere between SYR and BUF...so ROC seems in a good spot...maybe a bit further east than that.... LES potential from Wed. night into Fri. morn needs to be watched....lots of ambient moisture, decent ambient instability, and delta's that are going to be VERY close to adding instability...along with somewhat decent fetch as we get into Thurs...depending on your model of choice.... These long drawn out, intermittent type storms seem to always disappoint wrt to snow lovers (because of the intermittent nature....but when all is said and done...official snowfall totals over 4 days should be north of 12" for most of CNY...and much more for the highest elevations...(some 30" lollies in some select locations of the Catskills, Adirondacks/Greens..etc.) George, agree w/ your thoughts. My guess is that the hills will do well, everything else a crap shoot. There is indication that later wed into thurs could get us some lake enhancement, which may be where we pick up most of our snow from this. Almost anything possible with this, which will make it interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Brian, hope all is well! Much better on this end! Definitely an interesting system...this would be such a potential "historic" storm for the CNY area, if we had an airmass that was 5C colder! What falls over the next 4 days will all be gone by Tues or Wed. of next week...as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 By 00z (or a few hours later), most areas in CNY will not have to deal with P-type issues...as a matter of fact, 12z NAM is coming in colder (at least at 850...about .75-1.0 degree C) for most of CNY. Once occlusion begins, precip field over E/C NYS will expand westward...period of heaviest snows with this long event will be tomorrow night into midday Wed. Def. zone will be somewhere between SYR and BUF...so ROC seems in a good spot...maybe a bit further east than that.... LES potential from Wed. night into Fri. morn needs to be watched....lots of ambient moisture, decent ambient instability, and delta's that are going to be VERY close to adding instability...along with somewhat decent fetch as we get into Thurs...depending on your model of choice.... These long drawn out, intermittent type storms seem to always disappoint wrt to snow lovers (because of the intermittent nature....but when all is said and done...official snowfall totals over 4 days should be north of 12" for most of CNY...and much more for the highest elevations...(some 30" lollies in some select locations of the Catskills, Adirondacks/Greens..etc.) I'm hoping that Toronto can get at least 2" out of this. It's going to be a close call, but I live in the east end of the city so there's a greater chance, I would think, of me getting 2" than Pearson airport in the west end due to the sharp gradient associated with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Brian, hope all is well! Much better on this end! Definitely an interesting system...this would be such a potential "historic" storm for the CNY area, if we had an airmass that was 5C colder! What falls over the next 4 days will all be gone by Tues or Wed. of next week...as it looks now. Yep we look to blowtorch next week. Should carry us right close to Christmas also if med range NWP is at all accurate...very spotty start to met Winter. I'm supposed to be traveling to Albany tomorrow and staying overnight for work, but that conference is in jeopardy at this point. All is well on my end here too. SSDD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Warnings up for Binghamton's entire area. 8-12". Most models agree but the latest NAM dramatically cut down on snow amounts for everyone outside the Catskills, even though highs everywhere busted low today. What an awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Warnings up for Binghamton's entire area. 8-12". Most models agree but the latest NAM dramatically cut down on snow amounts for everyone outside the Catskills, even though highs everywhere busted low today. What an awful model. NAM does this so many times, it is quite frustrating! And then tonight's 00z run will double our qpf....watch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Nice lolli close to you LEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Day 2: Day 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 Clusters pretty organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Don Pauls forecast. Niagara Falls to Rochester to Syracuse and Liverpool look good for some decent snows. Also, any place with some decent elevation south of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The newest WRF is a complete whiff for the entire area . I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned between this and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 The newest WRF is a complete whiff for the entire area . I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned between this and the NAM. SREF says fear not. 6-12 inches from Buffalo to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Would be kinda funny if it was a big whiff. I lived thru the March 2001 "Historic NorEaster" Fiasco down in southern New England.... there were plenty of pissed off people, mainly from NYC to Philly, when the storm (Miller B ), had birthing pains. Up here, we'd just have to wait another week or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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