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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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If we had NWS BOX issuing our forecasts we'd be under a Blizzard watch for days. I'd think a high end advisory is probably warranted.

Surprised at the intensity of the band today. I told my kids they will be off tomorrow after 4 to 8+ fell this afternoon just north of Phoenix and the fact the super cancelled after-school activities at 4:15 and some kids did not get home off of bus until after 5. Long sentence man! Nice looking dog too.

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Buffalo never seems to cover events like this with winter storm watches, even though I wouldn't be opposed to it. They will likely cover with lake effect advisories/warnings. Should be a great few days of weather watching.

 

Speaking of LES. Look whats going on at KBUF the last few hours. Visibility now at 3/4 of a mile.

 

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Huskys don't give a sh*t. They're pretty badass. #honeybadgers

Saber out in the snow tonight. I forced him to get inside...he was quite comfy out in the heavy snow and near zero temps.

Nice looking pup!  Awesome outside here right now - temp edging towards zero and very fine snow falling pretty steadily.  Actually doesn't feel too bad out right now with the wind being pretty light.  

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I love huskies and plan on getting a puppy soon. Will be buying a house in the next few years most likely in an even better snow location. (currently rent) Was thinking the northern portions of the Boston Hills.

That would be a great spot for snow. I wish I lived a bit further north but where I am at is real convenient for work and we get decent LES, just not the epic stuff. Can't complain after living in the snow hole of coastal SE CT for so long. Of course, it's Blizzard Central down there lately but whatevs...

I have him on an electronic fence collar. He was trained on it when we got him, he's 4 now. I buried enough wire to encompass 3 acres so he has a pretty large area to roam, which huskies need or they get batty being cooped up. He obeys the fence, I think because he was trained on it as a pup and is mostly an outdoor dog, although he comes inside now, but never wants to stay in for long. Just don't let them escape, they are smart and good at it. When they get loose...they run...and run...and run...also, they hunt. This guy goes after anything that moves. He's caught and killed squirrels, feral cats, the neighbors roosters...very very friendly to humans and kids though. But a Turrible watchdog.

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That would be a great spot for snow. I wish I lived a bit further north but where I am at is real convenient for work and we get decent LES, just not the epic stuff. Can't complain after living in the snow hole of coastal SE CT for so long. Of course, it's Blizzard Central down there lately but whatevs...

I have him on an electronic fence collar. He was trained on it when we got him, he's 4 now. I buried enough wire to encompass 3 acres so he has a pretty large area to roam, which huskies need or they get batty being cooped up. He obeys the fence, I think because he was trained on it as a pup and is mostly an outdoor dog, although he comes inside now, but never wants to stay in for long. Just don't let them escape, they are smart and good at it. When they get loose...they run...and run...and run...also, they hunt. This guy goes after anything that moves. He's caught and killed squirrels, feral cats, the neighbors roosters...very very friendly to humans and kids though. But a Turrible watchdog.

Yeah have been doing lots of research on huskies. I just want a dog that enjoys winter and I go for long walks with him in deep snow in the hills. My uncle had an Alaskan Malamute growing up and I absolutely loved that dog. We would play outside in the snow for hours and hours.

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Those are some big totals for Maine.  It is the NAM, which spits out some bogus qpf sometimes but even if you divide by 2 there are still some big numbers on the board...

 

Yeah, highly doubt that happens. But 40" is a possibility with 60 MPH winds. There is also 4' of snow already on the ground. Crazy!

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Surprised at the intensity of the band today. I told my kids they will be off tomorrow after 4 to 8+ fell this afternoon just north of Phoenix and the fact the super cancelled after-school activities at 4:15 and some kids did not get home off of bus until after 5. Long sentence man! Nice looking dog too.

Yeah, i heard they were having buses pull over and wait it out as they were on the road when that thing let loose.  It was supposed to sink south quicker but didn't...heck it moved back north!  Hard to predict a firehose's motion...i wouldn't be surprised if they packed it in.  I saw in the post standard that PHX allows for 5 snow days and they've only used 2 thusfar.  They are in way better shape than most of the districts in CNY.

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Snow has lightened up to SN- around here now that the main event has pressed south.  Looks like we will transition to multibands.  One thing's pretty certain, snowblowing tomorrow morning is not going to be fun w/ windchills well below zero.  I haven't measured but i'd estimate we have 4, maybe 5" from this afternoon and evening's festivities.  The end of the driveway is drifting over and i'd expect that's only going to get worse over the next few days.

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I would go insane with the radar hole in and around the Rochester area. Seriously I could never live there just for that reason. ^_^

It SUCKS! At one time, there was talk about a radar being placed in Batavia, which would of covered Buf, Nia and Roc. People near the proposed site were worried about Cancer. I hate them. LOL

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still SN-  here, its under the radar stuff, probably amount to maybe another inch overnight based on past experience with this type of significant CAA and NW wind.  

 

my thinking for Sat is probably an area wide 3-6" snowfall.  I don't think it makes warning criteria but might in isolated spots / hilly sections.  Lake enhancement or follow on LES could bump this up but Sunday will feature another round of insane CAA so I'd be concerned that inversion crashes over the lake and it dries out.  

 

Tues/Wed storm looking like it could be SE of us based on last two sets of model runs.  Plenty of time for that one though.  Looking forward to following the Maine Blizzard.

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Last nights Euro was insane for the Weds event. Absolutely nuts. Still lots of time for it to trend NW. Almost every storm has trended NW this year, why would that one be different? As for our upper level low on Saturday, I'm concerned that it lacks moisture. It Is a great track for Buf- Syr. None of the Roc Mets are headlining it by any means. Barely mentioning it at all. And they are pretty damn good.

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How is it that Buf gets more LES than Rochester? Even though Lake Erie is completely frozen and the wind is from the NNW! OMG, i swear you guys seed the clouds or something.

Back in '10 we got a foot of snow here in the city from the upstream lakes, KIAG received almost 3ft of snow on that event!!

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Yeeah, I remeber that winter. When i first moved into my house in Irondequoit (south shore just north of Rochester) in 2003 or 2004, we had a winter were the Northern Half of Monroe County just got crushed time and time again. I was hoping that was normal for this area, but sadly, I haven't had too many more winters like that. I remember emailing Tom Nizolio about cutting Monroe into a North/ South County for flag purposes- like Erie is. He said it was a rare winter- and he was correct. I'll have to be content with my 100 inch winters. LOL. South of Rochester has areas that just get over 70". So 100 sounds nice, not as nice as Hamburgs 130-140.

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I don't think the event that's coming tomorrow has all that much to trend for us to have a nice little 6-10" - 8-12" synoptic event w/enhancement for the counties bordering LO ( that looks like a lock actually IMO).  I know that may not sound like a lot but it adds up no?  If the H5 max continues trending a bit further S&W as it did this evening, then at least we have a shot and I think its going to continue trending further West.  Why wouldn't it?  Its not like there's some blocking going on anywhere to our North.  NAO is Positive as its been most of this winter so I don't see why there would be a change in this winters pattern for systems to trend further West especially as the system gets closer. It may also depend on where that trough sets up across the area as those inverted troughs are practically crap shoots even as the event is unfolding, lol.  

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