Syrmax Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll take track A or B Track C would help our snow starved friends in the Mid Atl..,I won't complain if it happens. Its bound to eventually this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Id be amazed if this happened. Can't remember an anologue similar to this with an output like that in WNY. Ya gotta remember, the lakes are almost completely frzn over. And this is a moisture starved scenario. Rochester and Buffalo will be lucky to see 3" over the next 5 days. Gulf system next week looks more interesting. My call is total of 3" in Rochester until Monday. Hope I'm wrong. I have A pretty good track record. lake Erie is frozen over but Ontario is wide open for action with only shoreline ice coverage, as per norm...not enough to impede LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol, you're killing me man. The Gulf and the lakes aren't the only way to get a good storm system. There is a nice closed off rotating vorticity low that forms over Lake Ontario in most of the models that hit WNY/Rochester really well on Sat. (4-8 inches with some Ontario enhancement) The ensembles for next week are starting to look a tad better. The spread is quite apparent and still lots can change, but the signal is there for another large storm. Somewhere from Detriot to Boston is going to get hit with a large storm, the location will get clearly with time. KBGM AFD mentioned advisory level snows could result from the Saturday system, which is what NWP is showing. Given the cold we are going to get, any snowfall will be amazing. Definitely #peakwinter is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Id be amazed if this happened. Can't remember an anologue similar to this with an output like that in WNY. Ya gotta remember, the lakes are almost completely frzn over. And this is a moisture starved scenario. Rochester and Buffalo will be lucky to see 3" over the next 5 days. Gulf system next week looks more interesting. My call is total of 3" in Rochester until Monday. Hope I'm wrong. I have A pretty good track record. Today's visible satellite seems to show far less ice than what the Great Lake ice page is showing. Lake Ontario is probably less than 15 percent covered. Open for business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Id be amazed if this happened. Can't remember an anologue similar to this with an output like that in WNY. Ya gotta remember, the lakes are almost completely frzn over. And this is a moisture starved scenario. Rochester and Buffalo will be lucky to see 3" over the next 5 days. Gulf system next week looks more interesting. My call is total of 3" in Rochester until Monday. Hope I'm wrong. I have A pretty good track record. I think you will be pleasantly surprised at what a solid Northerly flow of -20 850's will do for us. Ontario will be spitting out snow for many hours Thursday night into Friday and then again Sat night into Sunday. This will be very low topped stuff, likely well below the radars viewing angle but it will lead to a snowy weekend for many of us on the south shore. I'm sure the flake quality will be very low with the forcecasted temperatures and poor dendritic growth, so actual accumulations will be subjective. Sunday morning looks real good to me. Lots of synoptics moisture hanging back with a nearly perfect Northerly fetch for those of us in the ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Id be amazed if this happened. Can't remember an anologue similar to this with an output like that in WNY. Ya gotta remember, the lakes are almost completely frzn over. And this is a moisture starved scenario. Rochester and Buffalo will be lucky to see 3" over the next 5 days. Gulf system next week looks more interesting. My call is total of 3" in Rochester until Monday. Hope I'm wrong. I have A pretty good track record. Upper lakes and Erie have lots of ice cover but Ontario is mostly open (just look at the 1 km visible loops). Given the intensity of cold and the troughs passing overhead, I don't think the amounts on the map (4-8" basically) are at all unrealistic for much of the Rochester area over a 5 day period. I do think Buffalo won't do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Heavy snow squall with arctic front, temp still 19.4 and winds from SW...not for much longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Boston Hills/Colden area have been doing amazing the last few weeks. Nearly everyday I check Cocarahs I see 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Easily the heaviest snow I've seen in Oswego this year. I couldn't see across the street for several minutes and visibility hasn't improved much since. Our surface station on the west side of campus has a min. visibility of a little under 1/12 SM. Probably picked up 2" or so in 45 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Easily the heaviest snow I've seen in Oswego this year. I couldn't see across the street for several minutes and visibility hasn't improved much since. Our surface station on the west side of campus has a min. visibility of a little under 1/12 SM. Probably picked up 2" or so in 45 minutes! Same here for about 30 minutes when the arctic fropa rolled through. Into the ice box now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Getting slammed here with Lake Effect. And the wind is crazy also. Whiteout with 20-30mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Easily the heaviest snow I've seen in Oswego this year. I couldn't see across the street for several minutes and visibility hasn't improved much since. Our surface station on the west side of campus has a min. visibility of a little under 1/12 SM. Probably picked up 2" or so in 45 minutes! I'm watching it approach from my NW and the Clouds look extremely ominous as this single Band pushes its way South towards ME, lol. This should settle right across No. Onondaga for a bit before it sweeps through and breaks up into multiple NW bands! As I alluded to the other day with these stet-ups, surprises can happen as one already did. There was NO mention of a single intense band effecting parts of Oswego County from KBUF yesterday, or even its early morning discussion, thanks guys for the heads up, lol. Did CNY-LES FREAK make that map? That bullseye over SW Oswego County looks suspicious to me. I'm throwing a flag on this. Good One-lol, We're about to get smacked in the ol' kisser as this band approaches. Said this days ago that this wasn't going to be a cut and dry LE forecast for our area as this looks like its gonna stall right over our area for a few hours and depending on the intensity, things will get interesting, quickly!! It was 5F in Toronto at Noon while here it was 28F. This should wake a few people up in this area when this boreal air smacks us into Siberia for the next 2 weeks with shot after shot of intense cross polar flow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks about right but there could be some really nice surprises with a few vigorous SW's that will be traversing the area in a WNW fashion and with LO wide open for business, needless to say, it could get very interesting especially if the winds back just enough to get a solid 290-300 flow (WNW) band going then look out. The possibility does exist with such an extreme airmass, less so off of Erie as its frozen over, but Huron seems to be open just enough to add some much needed moisture to an already starved system! Odd to me how, the same time last year, the lakes we're predominately frozen except for Ontario but thats going to change big time the next few weeks that's for sure!! Just keep adding to the building glacier as we have close ~26" OTG depending on where you measure but that's an average of about 6 measurements throughout my BY, so not bad after a rather paltry first half of the season. Exciting next few weeks that's for sure. I'm about 15-20 miles due East, maybe closer, of the yellow spec, lol, so its real close. 8-12" of additional fluff as it will be falling through some real boreal air straight from the Polar regions so ratios could be through the roof with these SW's especially the last one in the series as that's the one that drop's the hammer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Oswego just got 2.5" in 45 minutes as I spoke to a friend of mine in the MET dept up at Suny Oswego! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well well well, we've got LES advisories up now which IMO opinion should have been up last night! .LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THISEVENING......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENINGTO NOON EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGHLATE THIS EVENING. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROMLATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILLS CAN CAUSE FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINEWITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOREXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREESBELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTUREOUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWIN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILLBE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES INROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INBUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAGBUFWX&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Picked up about 2.5" here with the overnight snow and the arctic frontal band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Getting slammed here with Lake Effect. And the wind is crazy also. Whiteout with 20-30mph winds. It'll be here in the next hour or so and I wouldnt expect it to exit the region so quickly either so get used what your looking at until at least 8 this evening, Thats what Im thinking at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If this band does what I think its going to do (SE of LO) then we get 4-8 in 4 hours! Lock it up as I just took a gander at the visible sat and things are about to become steady state for a few to several hours over our immediate area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That seems pretty reasonable given the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That seems pretty reasonable given the set up. Yes it does bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Can now see the neighbors house lol. Has let up but still lightly snowing. Temp is down to 21. Glad i didn't go out snowmobiling today lol. Thought about going riding but knew the Lake Effect was gonna kick in and didn't wanna ride through the mess. Did 115 miles in the Tug Hill yesterday with nothing but perfectly groomed trails. Awesome ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm really quite intrigued by how poorly the The great Lakes Environment research laboratory seems to be assessing the great lakes ice. A simple 10 second look at a visible satellite loops finds a lot of discrepancies between reality and what they portray. Bottom line, trust your local instinct and use satellite info because that website is a joke. A few glaring issues right off the bat are Lake Ontario, Georgian bay and Lake Huron. Lake Ontario simply has nowhere near the ice over they are displaying. And from their website, the Georgian bay should be completely ice covered. Yet, visible satellite imagery shows Lake Ontario virtually ice free aside from the St Lawrence area and Georgian bay has active streamers coming off of it. As for Huron, the southern end of the lake appears to be much more ice free than it is assessed. Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Absolute White out conditions occurring right now across the area!! The most wicked I've seen yet as far as wind and snow are concerned. Extremely dangerous conditions out there right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Temps are plummeting while this intense band settles over the area!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm really quite intrigued by how poorly the The great Lakes Environment research laboratory seems to be assessing the great lakes ice. A simple 10 second look at a visible satellite loops finds a lot of discrepancies between reality and what they portray. Bottom line, trust your local instinct and use satellite info because that website is a joke. A few glaring issues right off the bat are Lake Ontario, Georgian bay and Lake Huron. Lake Ontario simply has nowhere near the ice over they are displaying. And from their website, the Georgian bay should be completely ice covered. Yet, visible satellite imagery shows Lake Ontario virtually ice free aside from the St Lawrence area and Georgian bay has active streamers coming off of it. As for Huron, the southern end of the lake appears to be much more ice free than it is assessed. Very interesting Great lakes ice 021215 GLSEA.png Great lakes ice 021215.png I agree Delta, 100%, as I've given up on that site as they don't seem to care, lol. Our tax dollars at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Man I wish I could do a video and show you guys whats going on right now outside, lol. Its incredible, but I know you guys out West are just as used to it as we are! Still incredible to witness and be a part of! Cant see across the street about 50 yds, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Man I wish I could do a video and show you guys whats going on right now outside, lol. Its incredible, but I know you guys out West are just as used to it as we are! Still incredible to witness and be a part of! Cant see across the street about 50 yds, lol. Get some video. Always love to see new places with whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If this makes it down into the Syracuse area at this intensity for the afternoon Rush fuggetaboutit, There's going to be some real big big problems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Back to a complete whiteout again lol. It's just brutal out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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