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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Next few days should score us 3-6"...more interesting is tues/wed next week. At least according to 12z GFS. Anyone care to posit how this will end up as 2 feet of snow for southern new england, or should we go elsewhere for that discussion? ;)

I don't know bro, we could be in for a surprise bro especially with such high ratios it's gonna sound and feel like styrofoam for a while around here, lol. I'm convinced LO is gonna throw us a big bone tomorrow night into Friday!
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I don't know bro, we could be in for a surprise bro especially with such high ratios it's gonna sound and feel like styrofoam for a while around here, lol. I'm convinced LO is gonna throw us a big bone tomorrow night into Friday!

. Maybe, but aren't the usual hobgoblins in play? Dry air, lack of synoptic moisture, poor fetch, vertical shear high, inversion crashing, feb sun angle, etc etc. Unless it's the Tug, where magically the 30 feet of extra elevation magically makes it all work!
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. Maybe, but aren't the usual hobgoblins in play? Dry air, lack of synoptic moisture, poor fetch, vertical shear high, inversion crashing, feb sun angle, etc etc. Unless it's the Tug, where magically the 30 feet of extra elevation magically makes it all work!

There's a bit of left over synoptic moisture up @H7 but also at the surface. It's gonna all depend on the fetch once the bloody 850- surface slip move through. If we get 6 plus the 11.5 that's 17.5" in 3 days. I'll take it.
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12Z GFS looks sweet for the next 7 plus days.  Maybe no huge storms, but cold with lots of moderate snow chances.  Let's keep adding on to these seasonal totals to make a nice dent in the history books... 

I'm thinking we might be able to go for the coldest February since 1979, and hence the coldest of my life thus far given I was born in 1980.

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That is a pretty epic post. The Jebman still has the Ol' magic! :lmao:

Those poor bastards down there. I have to check myself and refrain from future whining about any relative snow drought we get around here, cuz when it's all said and done, we'll still have 2 or 3x the snow of "Blizzardtown, USA" err, Boston. Snowing attm, maybe an inch or two tonight it appears.

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That is a pretty epic post. The Jebman still has the Ol' magic! :lmao:

Those poor bastards down there. I have to check myself and refrain from future whining about any relative snow drought we get around here, cuz when it's all said and done, we'll still have 2 or 3x the snow of "Blizzardtown, USA" err, Boston. Snowing attm, maybe an inch or two tonight it appears.

 

:mapsnow:

NE_Snow.png

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Just checked my cocorahs snow totals out of curiousity.  I thought we had a bit more here but... so far for the season, 84.5"...28.5" in the past 9 days (basically February).  As of 1/27/15 we were around 47" and looking pretty weak from a seasonal norm standpoint. Hasn't taken long for that to catch up.   Hopefully our friends down in PA and the Mid Atl can get something going soon. They've really been corn holed this winter with an infuriating wasted pattern snow bust.  I think the avg IMBY is about 135" for a season.

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Clown Map time...00Z NAM 84 hr total using the infamous "Evan Kuchera" method (e.g., not 10:1).  Pink shading is 12-15".  Not buying that but it shows the general idea that hills S of SYR and the Tug should do best in CNY. No surprise there.  Also, NAM showing some synoptic snow w/ the Sat/Sun inbound cliipper...stronger qpf response in CNY and even WNY, than I would have thought. 

post-3165-0-01501900-1423715953_thumb.jp

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:clap::mapsnow:

 

Got my ski trip next weekend Fri-Sun. Going to be some awesome powder at Holiday Valley! Going to enjoy every second of that trip. Just hope its not to cold.

Nice.  I went locally to Song Mt. last Sunday with my kid, his 2nd time ever.  Snowed just enough to make it scenic.  Glad I didn't wait till this weekend to bring him...I used to ski in sub zero conditions in VT back in the day but I'd just as soon avoid that.

 

edit: still snowing lightly.  Snow is granular, bouncing off tree limbs, previously was fluffier dendrites.  I wonder if this is due to drying aloft and related to the FZDZ conditions noted earlier out by BUF.  

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:mapsnow:

NE_Snow.png

Id be amazed if this happened. Can't remember an anologue similar to this with an output like that in WNY. Ya gotta remember, the lakes are almost completely frzn over. And this is a moisture starved scenario.

Rochester and Buffalo will be lucky to see 3" over the next 5 days. Gulf system next week looks more interesting.

My call is total of 3" in Rochester until Monday. Hope I'm wrong. I have A pretty good track record.

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Clown convention map. Like Niagara County mysteriously gets a 14" snowfall with no real synoptics. Its thinking Georgian Bay is ready for action while they are busy snowmobiling across it.

 

Lol, you're killing me man. The Gulf and the lakes aren't the only way to get a good storm system. There is a nice closed off rotating vorticity low that forms over Lake Ontario in most of the models that hit WNY/Rochester really well on Sat. (4-8 inches with some Ontario enhancement) The ensembles for next week are starting to look a tad better. The spread is quite apparent and still lots can change, but the signal is there for another large storm. Somewhere from Detriot to Boston is going to get hit with a large storm, the location will get clearly with time.

 

day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

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