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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Yeah 120 miles to far, lol! Have fun guys and hope Ithaca gets the brunt as they usually get shafted for some reason kind of like us!

 

You live a few miles southeast of Fulton. You live in a location that averages more snow than most if not all of these forums. Just a string of bad luck my friend. You will get yours trust me. ^_^

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You live a few miles southeast of Fulton. You live in a location that averages more snow than most if not all of these forums. Just a string of bad luck my friend. You will get yours trust me. ^_^

A 10 year long string brotha with Doji here to verify! Wait, except for Valentines Day 2013, we've had Just a horrible stretch of nasty Winters, seriously.  We may average 150 some odd inches but it happens 2" here 3" there maybe a few 6"ers and thats how most places to the SE of LO gets to their averages.  People have it twisted if they think we get massive storms , LIKE YOU GUYS, lol cause we absolutely do not.  do we often get lucky, yeah everyone does but to have so many systems under-perform 1 after the other is horrible but I've learned to live with it!  The reason being is the fact that I rather see snow fall instead of watching it pile up like most on this forum! So if it snows 75 days of the 90 day winter season then I'm happy!

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You live a few miles southeast of Fulton. You live in a location that averages more snow than most if not all of these forums. Just a string of bad luck my friend. You will get yours trust me. ^_^

 

Having grown up in that area I can attest that it's uncanny how the area just southeast of Fulton gets screwed more often than not in lake effect events.  They sit and watch Fulton/Hannibal get crushed for hours, then the band flies by to hit Syracuse, or lift north to the Tug.  Of course it's all relative, but I can see how the "Freak" would have a bit of a snow inferiority complex.  

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Having grown up in that area I can attest that it's uncanny how the area just southeast of Fulton gets screwed more often than not in lake effect events.  They sit and watch Fulton/Hannibal get crushed for hours, then the band flies by to hit Syracuse, or lift north to the Tug.  Of course it's all relative, but I can see how the "Freak" would have a bit of a snow inferiority complex.  

You are 100% correct brotha!  that is exactly how it usually occurs because to get an airmass to keep a 290 flow for over 6 hrs is extremely hard but I won't say it doesn't happen but not too often!  Happened 1 this year and we got close to 16" in about 4.5hrs!!  When it happens, man it happens but far and few between unfortunately!

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Looks like the area about 20 miles either side of Dunkirk will be the jackpot in far WNY.  Guessing that translates well for the Ithaca area as the radar returns have been very E-W oriented.  

 

Looks like some mixed precip in those bands. Warm air aloft.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-6

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that is a weird radar return south of buffalo. it must be sleet. i just got home after a long shift at work. i cant blv i only got 3" right here along the south shore of Lake Ontario. It looked like moderate snow all evening. mustve been alot of freezing fog too. I'm wondering if this shortwave can boost any where close to WSW criteria of 7". I'm doubtful. But you never know. Rochester always does well on the 'back side'. But not much in the way of dynamics with this one. Plus, as ive said ad nauseum, the lake is frozen almost. Anyone else still up.

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And as those hvier returns have moved in. Our rates have increased to moderate at least. I've seen the returns grow just to diminish again.. But there is some kinda shortwave around Youngstown ohio (looking at IR Satellite) which just might keep these higher snowfall rates going for a few hrs. But Im not sure.

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I always forget that Rochester always overperforms on the back side of lows sneaking across Pennsylvania. Apparently the NWS didn't. They kept a hold of Winter Storm Warnings for our area even though only 3 inches had fallen as of 11pm on Sunday. As it turns out, we are now approaching the criteria, with hvy snow still falling. Very cool. Plus, it looks like alot of other areas are getting some bonus snow (unless those returns are sleet around Dunkirk). Interesting Storm. The HRR is till showing snow until about 7am. So another few hrs. The lake is definitely helping us, despite being partially or mostly frozen. Glad I'm not forecaster. I would of panicked around the 6 o'clock news and slashed totals to 4". Roc will see around 8-10 for this event. Low end of the forecast, but still in the 8-14 they originally called for. Good job KBUF!!!!

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I always forget that Rochester always overperforms on the back side of lows sneaking across Pennsylvania. Apparently the NWS didn't. They kept a hold of Winter Storm Warnings for our area even though only 3 inches had fallen as of 11pm on Sunday. As it turns out, we are now approaching the criteria, with hvy snow still falling. Very cool. Plus, it looks like alot of other areas are getting some bonus snow (unless those returns are sleet around Dunkirk). Interesting Storm. The HRR is till showing snow until about 7am. So another few hrs. The lake is definitely helping us, despite being partially or mostly frozen. Glad I'm not forecaster. I would of panicked around the 6 o'clock news and slashed totals to 4". Roc will see around 8-10 for this event. Low end of the forecast, but still in the 8-14 they originally called for. Good job KBUF!!!!

Bro, Lake Ontario is WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS as she never freezes over and never has as she is 802 ft at her deepest point which prevents her from actually freezing over.  Lake Erie is quite different as it is quite shallow which is the main reason why Erie completely freezes over.  Check out the link below as it explains.

 

Before I attended Oswego State I always thought the same, until Dr. Ballentine said Nah " She never Freezes" so of course I had to research and I found out that she actually never does. 

 

Check out a visible view of LO and you'll see for yourself that shes completely wide open and waiting for one of these air masses to tap a little moisture because she'll definitely still produce as she did the other day across the Tug and I81 near Pulaski as there was a 30-40 car pile-up.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Ontario

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Another bust? 30" for Beantown?

4.5" /0.41 liquid eq. here. Lame, as expected.

Same here. Wife and kids heading to school. Glad she did not close as it is not necessary. I could see wind chills running up to 30 below on Friday morning. Winds could be in that 10 to 20 mph range. I am intrigued at the weekend storm. Enough spacing in between shortwaves??? I don't know. Something to track. Would be historic if that turned into a KU.

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I spent the night at Belhurst Castle outside of Geneva on Seneca Lake. My room looks out on the lake and right now the visibility is reduced to where I can't see across the lake. The wind is virtually calm and the snowflakes are floating straight down. Very pretty!

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Same here. Wife and kids heading to school. Glad she did not close as it is not necessary. I could see wind chills running up to 30 below on Friday morning. Winds could be in that 10 to 20 mph range. I am intrigued at the weekend storm. Enough spacing in between shortwaves??? I don't know. Something to track. Would be historic if that turned into a KU.

After the way the models have been performing lately i wouldn't get too excited yet. If conditions aren't that bad this morning why did Central Square schools close?

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After the way the models have been performing lately i wouldn't get too excited yet. If conditions aren't that bad this morning why did Central Square schools close?

I hear ya. We picked up a little over 4" here in Phoenix. Fulton and Mexico had no delays. Phoenix would use 10 or more snow days if they closed for every overnight 4" snowfall. No wind either. Maybe districts got worried with the WSW's that are issued.

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8 inches here this morning, and that is the storm total just southwest of the Rochester Airport since about 12pm yesterday.  I thought it was lovely little storm for this area.  Lake Ontario definitely helped us out for most of the storm, I would attribute a couple inches of that total to Lake effect/enhancement. 

 

I have the deepest snowpack in several years in my yard right now and am quite pleased by it!  Lets keep this train rolling!

 

As for Rochesterdaves incessant fears that Lake Ontario is somehow frozen, I finally must also jump in and say "Knock that **** off!"  Dude, its not even 10 percent frozen, I don't care what that stupid ice page shows, visible satellite imagery and local knowledge of the area is enough to call complete bull**** on whatever that page is saying.  Lake Ontario is absolutely wide open for business and will remain that way the rest of this winter (as it always does).

 

Stay positive everyone, this page took a turn to the real weenie side last night.

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After the way the models have been performing lately i wouldn't get too excited yet. If conditions aren't that bad this morning why did Central Square schools close?

no idea on CS but PHX is a 2 hr delay. Snowing steady attm, almost like it's a real snowstorm.
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