ENYsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Definitely not meeting expectations so far in ALB, only 2.5-3" since last night with maybe 2-4" more by tomorrow. Thursday doesn't look too appealing at this point.. then cold and dry to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I called for WWA last night. WSW criteria just wouldn't be met with this system. It was sloppy and not closed all the way through. Even the overunning was weak sauce. We might actually need a banter/complaint thread like the other sub-forums have. Very risky move putting up widespread wsw's for a system with such weak dynamics, it's just surprising that all models overdid precip so much over the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I don't know Bri, I think I may be premature with my bust comments as I see something interesting going on in and around the western tip of Lake Erie as an area of blossoming precip starts to make its way to the NE and not E with a vigorous SW! Lets give this dud a bit more time to get going because I don't feel like putting my foot in my mouth like the last one when I said it was ova and I woke up to a foot, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That's right. High returns with the Cleveland Doppler. See where that sets up. That would be the only chance to verify 7" inches in 12 hrs. I can't believe we have been under WSW since Sat. night for Oswego County/this am for Onondaga if I am correct. They have this going until 7 am for Onondaga. A bit perplexed to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Still snowing lightly here in western Monroe. Based on the radar trends, gotta think the bulk of it is over for here. We may have picked up 3" total but I haven't been out to measure recently. Edit to add (or try to add) some pics from the rime this morning. First, just some trees in the yard. Followed by close-ups of rime on a stake and rime on spruce needles. It was beautiful but hard to photograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Snow picked up again in Irondequoit. I think it's lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 KBUF keeps trimming back the snow totals map...sneaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I don't know Bri, I think I may be premature with my bust comments as I see something interesting going on in and around the western tip of Lake Erie as an area of blossoming precip starts to make its way to the NE and not E with a vigorous SW! Lets give this dud a bit more time to get going because I don't feel like putting my foot in my mouth like the last one when I said it was ova and I woke up to a foot, lol.. Stick a Fork in it. Trust me on this. If this were another forum, we could post unintelligible 1,000 word missives on why it's not over, or on why the 384 hr GFS is a lock to verify due to pattern recognition (whatever that is), synergistics, the propensity for CAD to be undermodeled, some gibberish about the AO & EPO, but mostly just cuz I like the output IMBY. But that's so 10 years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeMeToManos Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Radar actually filled in nicely over the past half hour down this way....(Newfield.... Just outside of Ithaca.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 . Stick a Fork in it. Trust me on this. I think for areas north of the thruway, this is mostly true (except for a couple of inches of lake fluff, lots of streamers showing up on the radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think the bust calls are a bit premature. The low is in Western Ohio and is still deepening and crawling east. RAP and HRRR have the precip field reforming and steady snow continuing through early afternoon tomorrow for CNY. I would be very surprised if Ithaca's WSW for 5-10" doesn't verify. It's coming down very nicely at the moment and the radar is looking pretty good. Edit: The high res 4km NAM has light backend snow through early Tuesday morning. This storm has a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeMeToManos Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think for areas north of the thruway, this is mostly true (except for a couple of inches of lake fluff, lots of streamers showing up on the radar) Agreed.... I'd be nervous up by Rochester..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Certainly. Bustogenisys calls are probably premature at this juncture. However, I think best snow accums will be south of the Thruway, and north of the state line, and elevated areas will verify the original ideas of 8-14". The notable exception from Thruway and north will be the Tug Hill area. Because the Tug never loses. Just measured...1", using parallax as a tool... At this rate, last night's 1.8" will be matched around sunrise, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ay any rate, the temperature differentials with this storm are amazing. 13 in SYR and 39 in BGM! It's 19 here, so the warm air must be just over the hills to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Picked up 1.5" of sleet/snow/Freezing rain today. Current snow depth is 20-24" on average from my 4 measurements. SWE must be high as it's completely concrete. There is actually still snow from the Nov. LES in the biggest pile at the end of my driveway, it never completely disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just over 4 inches of new snow in my yard since this morning. The radar is backfilling pretty nicely right now over the Niagara peninsula and extremely light lake effect is occurring on the majority of the south shore of lake ontario under the Northeast surface flow. Lets not give up yet. Who else got to experience the golf ball sized flakes this afternoon when that initial precip field blossomed? It was absolutely dumping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just over 4 inches of new snow in my yard since this morning. The radar is backfilling pretty nicely right now over the Niagara peninsula and extremely light lake effect is occurring on the majority of the south shore of lake ontario under the Northeast surface flow. Lets not give up yet. Who else got to experience the golf ball sized flakes this afternoon when that initial precip field blossomed? It was absolutely dumping.... Skiing at Song Mt and driving from Tully NY north to SYR afterwards, around 4-5 pm, there were some decent flake sizes on I-81 and in the hills. Flake size was smaller from SYR north but falling at a reasonable rate based on viz estimate. Since then, not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 00Z NAM says ITH jackpots...generally a south of Thruway axis of best qpf. Who knows if that will materialize into decent accumulation though. I'd keep a 10:1 ratio in mind when developing any expectations with this one. I don't have individual station qpf yet, will post when I have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ok as promised, 00z NAM 24 hr QPF output... ITH 0.71 BGM 0.66 ALB 0.56 UCA 0.50 SYR 0.47 ROC 0.31 BUF 0.30 ART 0.06 Still snowing lightly here, despite some decent looking radar recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Ok as promised, 00z NAM 24 hr QPF output... ITH 0.71 BGM 0.66 ALB 0.56 UCA 0.50 SYR 0.47 ROC 0.31 BUF 0.30 ART 0.06 Still snowing lightly here, despite some decent looking radar recently. Wow, no kidding. Still not believing an Ithaca jackpot until I see one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Its about to come to a complete end here until maybe whatever's going on down near KCLE gets here, if it even makes it here,lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Those heavy radar returns are just light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 To be honest I don't believe anything I see and I don't care if the event is actually happening. We were 24hrs out, in the Jackpot, and got completely shafted, I love it!! It doesn't get any better than that! I can see if we were on the fringes of this turd, but we were directly in the center of the heavier precip shield and we still managed to escape even touching advisory totals, lol. Talk about BUST!! Plenty more winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Just put out the trash, still snowing decently. Beautiful dendrites, decent size (not the usual snow grains). Guessing it's mostly lake effect though stronger echoes are approaching from the west. Snow is extremely light and fluffy. Air temp 12.1 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Those heavy radar returns are just light snow here. Yeah, why would they be heavy, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah, why would they be heavy, lol? Idk. Seems like it should be mod/heavy to me http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Based on the rate of snow and unimpressive radar, I'd say the lake is playing a pretty good role along the south shore. We may end up with more than we think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 To be honest I don't believe anything I see and I don't care if the event is actually happening. We were 24hrs out, in the Jackpot, and got completely shafted, I love it!! It doesn't get any better than that! I can see if we were on the fringes of this turd, but we were directly in the center of the heavier precip shield and we still managed to escape even touching advisory totals, lol. Talk about BUST!! Plenty more winter! I was suspicious of the cumulative snow totals being shown a few days ago. With just some junkball clippers, weak overrunning and a lame slp transiting west to east with almost zero dynamics, it seemed overdone.This one is over up here. KBGM could drop the Warnings in their northern ring of counties but at this point, what difference does it make? Actually, it might. If they downgrade, much more likely that schools will be open tomorrow. The hype factor plays a roll in those decisions. When the powers that be wake up at 4-5 am and see 2-3" on ground and warnings downgraded, more likely to get the buses rolling, LOL. Just told kids they got screwed, school will be happening tomorrow after all. I also got robocalled by my employer tonight, a canned warning that a nasty storm is coming from BUF to BOS. WtF is wrong with these idiots in Massachusetts, (corp HQ). These emergency preparedness types have to go. They've become hysterical bitches. Apparently they don't know that it snows in upstate NY every other day, or more frequently at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 I was suspicious of the cumulative snow totals being shown a few days ago. With just some junkball clippers, weak overrunning and a lame slp transiting west to east with almost zero dynamics, it seemed overdone. This one is over up here. KBGM could drop the Warnings in their northern ring of counties but at this point, what difference does it make? Actually, it might. If they downgrade, much more likely that schools will be open tomorrow. The hype factor plays a roll in those decisions. When the powers that be wake up at 4-5 am and see 2-3" on ground and warnings downgraded, more likely to get the buses rolling, LOL. Just told kids they got screwed, school will be happening tomorrow after all. I also got robocalled by my employer tonight, a canned warning that a nasty storm is coming from BUF to BOS. WtF is wrong with these idiots in Massachusetts, (corp HQ). These emergency preparedness types have to go. They've become hysterical bitches. Apparently they don't know that it snows in upstate NY every other day, or more frequently at times. They canceled my training that I was supposed to have for tomorrow near the airport. Now I have to be there when the regional manager comes in...Was really looking forward to being away for that visit. Buffalo has gone completely soft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 757 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2015 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...CAYUGA COUNTY... 4 NNE MONTEZUMA 3.5 657 PM 2/08 COCORAHS ...ERIE COUNTY... 3 ESE TONAWANDA 2.7 440 PM 2/08 COCORAHS BUFFALO AIRPORT 1.6 700 PM 2/08 ASOS ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER 3.4 700 PM 2/08 ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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