CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not too happy about the dendrite's right now as they are small but plentiful so it shouldn't really make a difference with such a long duration event taking shape. Another thing, temps are really starting to tumble here so are people taking into consideration ratios? In looking at Bufkit, highest Liq/Sn ratio during the event is 12/1 which I can't believe with temps falling through the low to mid teens? Somethings amiss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 RLMAO, but it can really happen in this forever relentless cold and snowy pattern that we've been locked in to for quite some tyime now. I can't see that plot, do you have to have some kind of special permission? Sounds like something I'd like to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Snow falling in Ithaca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Check out that boundary. 30 miles and 20+ degrees! @BW its 70 in the burbs south of DC! That doesn't even make sense, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Very light snow with small flakes here. Temp is down to 15 with very little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I can't see that plot, do you have to have some kind of special permission? Sounds like something I'd like to see... 19 bones a month and you should be quite content with the amount of data and especially all the sick model graphics that comes with a premium subscription from WeatherBell. Dr. Maue is quite the Man over there at WB providing such great graphics so its definitely worth the lute in the Winter months cause I drop it in May as I'm not into severe weather all that much, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Very light snow with small flakes here. Temp is down to 15 with very little wind. That's just what I was afraid of as the temps started to tumble so would the snow growth region in the BL. Still will see the snows piling up due to the extreme length of time at which it will be snowing for. Close to 36hrs straight of light to moderate snow should add up either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 There are some healthy echoes out in WNY right now especially over Orleans county where some enhancement has to be going on with that burst within the last few minutes! Hopefully they translate eastward but there's some dry air being advected SE over Eastern Wayne and Oswego counties which is quite annoying, lol. Not sure whats going on up there in the BL but very light to sometimes moderate almost graupel like snowflakes are falling and when they hit your jacket they bounce off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not too happy about the dendrite's right now as they are small but plentiful so it shouldn't really make a difference with such a long duration event taking shape. Another thing, temps are really starting to tumble here so are people taking into consideration ratios? In looking at Bufkit, highest Liq/Sn ratio during the event is 12/1 which I can't believe with temps falling through the low to mid teens? Somethings amiss! What will kill snow accum totals is poor dendrite growth, resulting in smallish flakes and a "rice snow" consistancy. That's what we have now just N of SYR. Apparently been the case most of the afternoon. This happens quite a bit here, best UVV not aligned with moisture / dendrite zone, or temps not optimal or some horse*** combination of all of the above. If this continues, cut snowfall forecast in half, or at least by a third, and you'll probably be close to correct. So 8-10" from BGM, current forecast IMBY, would be 4-8". Which I think looks good around SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Anybody have thoughts for right here in Ithaca? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What will kill snow accum totals is poor dendrite growth, resulting in smallish flakes and a "rice snow" consistancy. That's what we have now just N of SYR. Apparently been the case most of the afternoon. This happens quite a bit here, best UVV not aligned with moisture / dendrite zone, or temps not optimal or some horse*** combination of all of the above. If this continues, cut snowfall forecast in half, or at least by a third, and you'll probably be close to correct. So 8-10" from BGM, current forecast IMBY, would be 4-8". Which I think looks good around SYR. What will kill snow accum totals is poor dendrite growth, resulting in smallish flakes and a "rice snow" consistancy. That's what we have now just N of SYR. Apparently been the case most of the afternoon. This happens quite a bit here, best UVV not aligned with moisture / dendrite zone, or temps not optimal or some horse*** combination of all of the above. If this continues, cut snowfall forecast in half, or at least by a third, and you'll probably be close to correct. So 8-10" from BGM, current forecast IMBY, would be 4-8". Which I think looks good around SYR. Yep and it doesn't look like its going to change anytime soon for us, lol! There's NW wind at H850 that continues to advect dry air right into the area. its always something, lol, thats why its so damn intriguing to track and watch unfold. Either way, still nice to see the snow continue to pile up as this is just the first of several events so we could actually be near normal by the time the flakes stop flying when I once thought we'd be kept under 75" for the season, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gotta be ripping snow right now in KROC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Right now between Syracuse and Ithaca their getting absolutely crushed unless the echoes are false but I doubt it! It doesn't look like this area is moving or oscillating much so there should be some sick amounts if this continues throughout the night in this particular area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nice, KTYX radar is back up and running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Snow rate and flake size dropping now as the north edge of the band approaches. Looks like the radar is showing streamers off Lake Ontario in the NE flow along the western lake shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Has the precip shut off in and around the KBUF area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Snow has essentially come to an end in and around WNY North of KBUF at least that's what it looks like on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yep and it doesn't look like its going to change anytime soon for us, lol! There's NW wind at H850 that continues to advect dry air right into the area. its always something, lol, thats why its so damn intriguing to track and watch unfold. Either way, still nice to see the snow continue to pile up as this is just the first of several events so we could actually be near normal by the time the flakes stop flying when I once thought we'd be kept under 75" for the season, lol! Last night was worse than this. KBUF should probably adjust their map. It doesn't match up with point forecasts near me anyway. In fact, I'm increasingly confident that this won't be a Warning criteria event I think 2-3" tonight and maybe an inch or two Monday. This will wildly underachieve here IMO, at least in comparison to some of the numerical snow output (clown maps) that were being seen the past few days. Looks like Lake effect will be a non starter this week also..."dry air" will be the culprit this time, vs. the usual crappy dynamics, snow growth misalignments, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Snow has essentially come to an end in and around WNY North of KBUF at least that's what it looks like on radar? Still snowing here, but just lightly now. We'll see if anything can build back in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 this map is completely off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Last night was worse than this. KBUF should probably adjust their map. It doesn't match up with point forecasts near me anyway. In fact, I'm increasingly confident that this won't be a Warning criteria event I think 2-3" tonight and maybe an inch or two Monday. This will wildly underachieve here IMO, at least in comparison to some of the numerical snow output (clown maps) that were being seen the past few days. Looks like Lake effect will be a non starter this week also..."dry air" will be the culprit this time, vs. the usual crappy dynamics, snow growth misalignments, etc. Could this be Brian by any chance, cause you sound alot like a dude who used to be on here years ago but maybe, most likely probably not, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Last night was worse than this. KBUF should probably adjust their map. It doesn't match up with point forecasts near me anyway. In fact, I'm increasingly confident that this won't be a Warning criteria event I think 2-3" tonight and maybe an inch or two Monday. This will wildly underachieve here IMO, at least in comparison to some of the numerical snow output (clown maps) that were being seen the past few days. Looks like Lake effect will be a non starter this week also..."dry air" will be the culprit this time, vs. the usual crappy dynamics, snow growth misalignments, etc. Starting to get the same sick feeling in the pit of my stomache, lol. Still a long way to go with this one so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I want to know how in Gods name can every model out there show such absurd totals with not 1 that's going to be even close to verifying in and around our area. Not even come close it looks like to me! I got sand falling,lol, as thats the consistency, lol. I'd rather sleet as its more exciting. Not quite the debacle like in and around NY with B of 2015! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Could this be Brian by any chance, cause you sound alot like a dude who used to be on here years ago but maybe, most likely probably not, lol!. Yep, it's me! Changed ID just cuz, after eastern self immolated. Yes, yes this is going to be an absurd bust in our area. Rice snow FTL. It's similar to seeing the moon through a high overcast when it's supposed to be snowing hard. I'm waiting for that omen next...I'm sure the real snow belts of Boston, the south coast of Mass and interior CT will over achieve though. At least on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 . Yep, it's me! Changed ID just cuz, after eastern self immolated. Yes, yes this is going to be an absurd bust in our area. Rice snow FTL. It's similar to seeing the moon through a high overcast when it's supposed to be snowing hard. I'm waiting for that omen next...I'm sure the real snow belts of Boston, the south coast of Mass and interior CT will over achieve though. At least on paper. Yeah but were used to it from a band sitting to our North by 2-3 miles trying to will it to drop 2 miles, then we get systems like this when right up unitl the event its Gung Go then the Gong Show as the vent unfolds, lol! Oh well on to the next disaster which should be the next Clipper Thurs-Fri which will no doubt underachieve, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Yeah but were used to it from a band sitting to our North by 2-3 miles trying to will it to drop 2 miles, then we get systems like this when right up unitl the event its Gung Go then the Gong Show as the vent unfolds, lol! Oh well on to the next disaster which should be the next Clipper Thurs-Fri which will no doubt underachieve, lol! Even if a Clipper "meets expectations", what's that around here? 1-3"? Dog track money... I'm looking at the h384 18Z GFS, looks dreamy! Worlds most useless model runs (6/18z). Let's start getting invested in that, can't be worse than this one. Or can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If this is gonna be the norm for Boston where every snowfall is 12+ as well as the coastal areas of NE then I'm outtie with a quickness, NOT, as its still MASS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I want to know how in Gods name can every model out there show such absurd totals with not 1 that's going to be even close to verifying in and around our area. Not even come close it looks like to me! I got sand falling,lol, as thats the consistency, lol. I'd rather sleet as its more exciting. Not quite the debacle like in and around NY with B of 2015! Speaking of The B of 2015...Did any actual reporting stations ever verify Blizzard conditions? We couldn't find any the first day/night. There were "blizzardy" condition statements from NWS BOX but alas, no one was actually meeting criteria. Much like the last two Blizzard warning events down there. Which were shutouts as far as stations meeting B criteria. But as long as you scare enough media chickens...it must be real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Speaking of The B of 2015...Did any actual reporting stations ever verify Blizzard conditions? We couldn't find any the first day/night. There were "blizzardy" condition statements from NWS BOX but alas, no one was actually meeting criteria. Much like the last two Blizzard warning events down there. Which were shutouts as far as stations meeting B criteria. But as long as you scare enough media chickens...it must be real! I do think there were places that verified true B conditions in and around the Eastern tip of LI! I know South and West Hampton got crushed with definite blizzard conditions for 12 straight hours with winds sometimes reaching high end tropical Storm gusts! Don't know about KBOS but I can't imagine them not meeting the criteria for at least a portion of the event but definitely not the whole system verified Blizzard conditions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 I called for WWA last night. WSW criteria just wouldn't be met with this system. It was sloppy and not closed all the way through. Even the overunning was weak sauce. We might actually need a banter/complaint thread like the other sub-forums have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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