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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Snowing moderately here with good flake size. Looks like it will be a race in BUF to hold onto the precip. If we can for several hours we have a good chance of hitting the high end of the NWS forecast amounts, especially since mix doesn't appear to be an issue now. CNY'ers look to be in awesome shape.

Yeah, finally SN in North Bufffalo. Radar to the west may be filling in a bit.

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CAA is definitely underway across most of the area as places that were near freezing has slipped below so the transition should be a quick one through the evening hours.  

 

Just witnessed on the enhanced WV imagery a frontal boundary which recently crossed the area actually dried up a bit of the moisture that had been previously advecting into CNY from the West but since has passed and looks to be making its way South rather swiftly.

 

Critical thicknesses are slowly dropping through the state rather so who ever is seeing anything other than snow should be doing so soon!

 

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Freezing rain has turned to snow here, earlier than the models expected. Hoping for 6-8 inches. If the band keeps up through tomorrow afternoon, that should be easily possible.

 

i agree.  The latest NAM gives us over 0.75 inches of QPF, but puts us on the Southern edge of the heavier amounts with a sharp drop to our South.  The GFS also gives us more than 0.75 inches of QPF, and places us near the heaviest precip totals in NY.

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When KBUF finally goes over to all snow their likely to get a nice thumping if that precip can last long enough over the area!  

 

When looking at the area of precip, this whatever you call event, Its Marcus to TWC, looks as though most guidance has been within 50 miles or so of where its actually forming, with the heaviest of the precip falling across CNY and points N&E so in all fairness a blend of all the guidance would of sufficed sans the NAM as usual.  Unless of course Im missing something.

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Just feels good to see an active forum finally. Last year it was just me Devin and Ayuud talking to each other. Always nice to see new posters contributing. Please do it more! =)

 

Last year was extremely dull, with historic cold but almost nothing in the way of synoptic storms. The Valentines Day storm which came  further west than anyone expected and dropped 8-12 across CNY was the only exception.

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