CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's been snowing steadily here all evening. We're closing in on 3 inches and there's still plenty of returns upstream of us. The snow should continue most of the night so we could be up to 5 or 6 inches by morning. The 0z GFS brings the 850 freezing line close to us for a while tomorrow afternoon before it collapses back south. With the steadiest snow moving in tomorrow night and continuing most of the day Monday we could be getting close to a foot before it's over. Ditto brother as I'm about 5-7 miles almost due West! Almost identical weather I'd imagine with little difference except in LES events and extreme banding events and even then we should be real close as far as accum! We've been snowing since about 4:30 this afternoon and ever so slowly it got steadier but not too much heavier as was expected and we're nearing close to 4.5 as of 1:30AM so we should be anywhere between I would say 5-8" in the AM before the next more substantial event unfolds! It sure is piling up out there and the snowmobilers are ecstatic about it as they should be with such a paltry beginning (snow wise as the cold was surely around) to the season! Hopefully one of these weenie precip maps work out for us, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Boston, lol, 2.5 liq equiv in @60? Their gonna be literally buried if this actually comes to fruition!. HI RES WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Ditto brother as I'm about 5-7 miles almost due West! Almost identical weather I'd imagine with little difference except in LES events and extreme banding events and even then we should be real close as far as accum! We've been snowing since about 4:30 this afternoon and ever so slowly it got steadier but not too much heavier as was expected and we're nearing close to 4.5 as of 1:30AM so we should be anywhere between I would say 5-8" in the AM before the next more substantial event unfolds! It sure is piling up out there and the snowmobilers are ecstatic about it as they should be with such a paltry beginning (snow wise as the cold was surely around) to the season! Hopefully one of these weenie precip maps work out for us, lol. Glad to hear it's piling up further west, hopefully this can over perform for someone. Snow growth has been hideous here, haven't measured but looks like somewhere between .5-1" after 5 hours of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah, the models have really dried up for WNY. The issue here will be mixing. The r/s line could be the difference between 4 inches and a foot for Ithaca. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah, the models have really dried up for WNY. The issue here will be mixing. The r/s line could be the difference between 4 inches and a foot for Ithaca. Should be interesting. Yeah, I just glanced at the Euro and it actually brings in some warmer Mid lvl air way up to, and past Cortland just to our South, so I don't know about that, lol, but with a temp of 42 at Erie at 2:30 am shouldn't be a surprise for anyone residing from the Finger Lakes South Eastward to see/hear some kind of pinging tomorrow at the start of this event! As the event gets going however, the BL collapses and everyone quickly goes over to snow and it could be heavy depending where you are! Interesting event unfolding but I guess you can say this has been the norm this year as no storm has been cut and dry, with respect to SLP placement and whatnot, most notable being the Blizzard of 2015 AKA LINUS or NEMO, LMAO debacle in and around the 5 boroughs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 IDK but for some strange reason I have a really good feeling about this one. The synoptics are there for a very long drawn out event with periods of heavier precip throughout most of the evening and overnight hours here in CNY. There shouldn't be much blowing/drifting around with such a weak mean flow out of the NE but those N to S roads can still see problems especially with snow falling and temps in the mid 20's. I guess we'll see how the BZ meanders throughout the area the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Really disconcerting how much the models have dried up west of Syracuse. BIG change. I dont know if its lack of QPF or a bit of mixing or some of both. Probably the latter. But I really don't see a whole lot of mixing making it up to Rochester or North of I-90? We havent had alot of storms were the models drop off this steeply this year. Especially when the big snow is still 36 hrs out. They usually ramp up until just 18 hrs out and then drop totals a bit. Which leads me to believe that tomorrow at this time we will be looking at a 1-3 over buffalo and a 3-6 or even 2-4 over rochester. DAMN, I hope I'm wrong. But I've watched these models for too many years to not have a finger on their pulse. And this pulse is getting very very slow. Almost flat lining. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 From Rome east still looks good! And all of Massachussettes still looks bullish (big surprise). What the hell is boston gonna do with all that snow for gods sake? Jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 From Rome east still looks good! And all of Massachussettes still looks bullish (big surprise). What the hell is boston gonna do with all that snow for gods sake? Jealous. Models have definitely been shaky this winter, tough to trust them fully with this one because of the synoptic setup and lack of dynamical forcing aloft. It doesn't seem to matter much in eastern mass though haha, one way or another they are getting 12"+ (probably more like 18"+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This map spells trouble for the mid morning hours as the WAA hasn't even gotten underway yet so I see a period of IP/FZRN for someone in and around the FLakes's eastward and perhaps even as far north as Syracuse but the CF is also pressing as the same time so maybe its a race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This map spells trouble for the mid morning hours as the WAA hasn't even gotten underway yet so I see a period of IP/FZRN for someone in and around the FLakes's eastward and perhaps even as far north as Syracuse but the CF is also pressing as the same time so maybe its a race. I don't like to see any taint in any storm but I'm not too concerned if we do mix briefly in this area. It shouldn't last very long before cold air starts to advect back south. After the nice appetizer snowfall last night I'd be happy with 8 inches from the main storm. That would put us at about a foot total. Anything above that is icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 That's some serious cold north of the border. Minus 47 in Quebec!!! Front pushed through here this morning and we're back in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Beautiful morning, all the trees are covered in a nice layer of rime. Anyone else wake up to this? No idea if it's just a localized occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 That's some serious cold north of the border. Minus 47 in Quebec!!! Front pushed through here this morning and we're back in the low 20's. natemps.gif Equally impressive to me is the warmth out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Getting a little freezing snizzle here for the last hour or so. That would be freezing drizzle BTW lol. Temp is 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's been pouring snow here last 30 min. Big heavy wet flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's been pouring snow here last 30 min. Big heavy wet flakesWhere's here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Where's here? Skaneateles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just drove home from East Aurora (20 miles south). 32 deg there with drizzle, 22 deg here with moderate snow and sleet flipping back and forth. Quite a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm at 16.2 F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Radar really lighting up now north of the thruway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah, we had a burst of heavier snow a while back, it let up but now we're starting to get some really large flakes coming down. Looks like the next few hours could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Down to 27 here, looks like ice won't be an issue. That band needs to keep expanding south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Heavy snow now with good flake size (mothballs). Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Starting to snow here also, very small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Building and headed right for me, , but man radar returns can be quite deceiving but since Champy verified S++ to my south so whatever's coming at me like a train should be S++ @ 23.4F. Nobody in Syracuse to verify if that wicked snow band to my South means business or is it cluttered by IP/FZRN because that line is real close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Webcams from the Syracuse area show snow falling. Roads and sidewalks are getting covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I am in Tully at Song mt skiing.I can see hiltops Looking north but not down to valley, like a fog. Snow picking up again... Was 23 in clay at 11 am but 35 in Tully at noon. Big gradient. On and off snow in Tully this afternoon. Was steady for a while but not in last two hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Snowing moderately here with good flake size. Looks like it will be a race in BUF to hold onto the precip. If we can for several hours we have a good chance of hitting the high end of the NWS forecast amounts, especially since mix doesn't appear to be an issue now. CNY'ers look to be in awesome shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Heavy sleet freezing rain in orchard park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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