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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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It's been snowing steadily here all evening. We're closing in on 3 inches and there's still plenty of returns upstream of us. The snow should continue most of the night so we could be up to 5 or 6 inches by morning. The 0z GFS brings the 850 freezing line close to us for a while tomorrow afternoon before it collapses back south. With the steadiest snow moving in tomorrow night and continuing most of the day Monday we could be getting close to a foot before it's over.

Ditto brother as I'm about 5-7 miles almost due West!  Almost identical weather I'd imagine with little difference except in LES events and extreme banding events and even then we should be real close as far as accum!  We've been snowing since about 4:30 this afternoon and ever so slowly it got steadier but not too much heavier as was expected and we're nearing close to 4.5 as of 1:30AM so we should be anywhere between I would say 5-8" in the AM before the next more substantial event unfolds!

 

It sure is piling up out there and the snowmobilers are ecstatic about it as they should be with such a paltry beginning (snow wise as the cold was surely around) to the season!

 

Hopefully one of these weenie precip maps work out for us, lol.

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Ditto brother as I'm about 5-7 miles almost due West!  Almost identical weather I'd imagine with little difference except in LES events and extreme banding events and even then we should be real close as far as accum!  We've been snowing since about 4:30 this afternoon and ever so slowly it got steadier but not too much heavier as was expected and we're nearing close to 4.5 as of 1:30AM so we should be anywhere between I would say 5-8" in the AM before the next more substantial event unfolds!

 

It sure is piling up out there and the snowmobilers are ecstatic about it as they should be with such a paltry beginning (snow wise as the cold was surely around) to the season!

 

Hopefully one of these weenie precip maps work out for us, lol.

Glad to hear it's piling up further west, hopefully this can over perform for someone. Snow growth has been hideous here, haven't measured but looks like somewhere between .5-1" after 5 hours of light snow.

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Yeah, the models have really dried up for WNY. The issue here will be mixing. The r/s line could be the difference between 4 inches and a foot for Ithaca. Should be interesting.

Yeah, I just glanced at the Euro and it actually brings in some warmer Mid lvl air way up to, and past Cortland just to our South, so I don't know about that, lol, but with a temp of 42 at Erie at 2:30 am shouldn't be a surprise for anyone residing from the Finger Lakes South Eastward to see/hear some kind of pinging tomorrow at the start of this event!  As the event gets going however, the BL collapses and everyone quickly goes over to snow and it could be heavy depending where you are!

 

Interesting event unfolding but I guess you can say this has been the norm this year as no storm has been cut and dry, with respect to SLP placement and whatnot, most notable being the Blizzard of 2015 AKA LINUS or NEMO, LMAO debacle in and around the 5 boroughs!

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IDK but for some strange reason I have a really good feeling about this one.  The synoptics are there for a very long drawn out event with periods of heavier precip throughout most of the evening and overnight hours here in CNY.  There shouldn't be much blowing/drifting around with such a weak mean flow out of the NE but those N to S roads can still see problems especially with snow falling and temps in the mid 20's. I guess we'll see how the BZ meanders throughout the area the next couple days.

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Really disconcerting how much the models have dried up west of Syracuse. BIG change. I dont know if its lack of QPF or a bit of mixing or some of both. Probably the latter. But I really don't see a whole lot of mixing making it up to Rochester or North of I-90? We havent had alot of storms were the models drop off this steeply this year. Especially when the big snow is still 36 hrs out. They usually ramp up until just 18 hrs out and then drop totals a bit. Which leads me to believe that tomorrow at this time we will be looking at a 1-3 over buffalo and a 3-6 or even 2-4 over rochester. DAMN, I hope I'm wrong. But I've watched these models for too many years to not have a finger on their pulse. And this pulse is getting very very slow. Almost flat lining. LOL.

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From Rome east still looks good! And all of Massachussettes still looks bullish (big surprise). What the hell is boston gonna do with all that snow for gods sake? Jealous.

Models have definitely been shaky this winter, tough to trust them fully with this one because of the synoptic setup and lack of dynamical forcing aloft. It doesn't seem to matter much in eastern mass though haha, one way or another they are getting 12"+ (probably more like 18"+).

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This map spells trouble for the mid morning hours as the WAA hasn't even gotten underway yet so I see a period of IP/FZRN for someone in and around the FLakes's eastward and perhaps even as far north as Syracuse but the CF is also pressing as the same time so maybe its a race.

 

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I don't like to see any taint in any storm but I'm not too concerned if we do mix briefly in this area. It shouldn't last very long before cold air starts to advect back south. After the nice appetizer snowfall last night I'd be happy with 8 inches from the main storm. That would put us at about a foot total. Anything above that is icing on the cake.

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Building and headed right for me, :snowing: , but man radar returns can be quite deceiving but since Champy verified S++ to my south so whatever's coming at me like a train should be S++ @ 23.4F.

 

Nobody in Syracuse to verify if that wicked snow band to my South means business or is it cluttered by IP/FZRN because that line is real close!

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I am in Tully at Song mt skiing.I can see hiltops Looking north but not down to valley, like a fog. Snow picking up again... Was 23 in clay at 11 am but 35 in Tully at noon. Big gradient. On and off snow in Tully this afternoon. Was steady for a while but not in last two hrs.

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