BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Right on cue, Lake Erie is spitting out another band in Northern Erie County as if to traumatize the weary travelers that battled the morning commute. Erie can surprise with patches in the ice. If the lake was open this would be a major event for the metro. After next week there will be 0% openings lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 So yeah today...Backing up out of my 100 foot driveway I went to the side a little bit and got stuck. I then tried to get out and got more stuck. I couldn't open my door and spent an hour digging myself out. Fun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What a blasphemous thing to say. You definitely don't ski or snowboard because that is my greatest fear right now. The conditions are beyond primo. Also, I just don't understand the mentality of not wanting winter weather. I love blowing and drifting! Apparently I'm the only person on here who truly enjoys every facet of severe winter weather. I want it to be as nasty as possible all winter, no reprieve....ever! Agreed and this coming from someone who drives for a living. So it really can add some stress and throw a wrench in plans some days but I just do what I can and enjoy it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Top analog for the storm on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's fun until someone loses control, bounces off the guide rail and closes down a lane. Then traffic backs up 2 miles and people are a half hour late for work. Happened this morning on I 481 north of Syracuse. same experience Thursday morning on I-481...it had stopped snowing hours earlier, had 4", but Rt 31 and I-481 were a mess, cars spun out in the median of 481 and slow going. I blame the salt, it created a slippery goo. Given how dry the snow was, if they had just plowed the snow I think conditions would have been safer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 To each his own. And you're right, I don't ski or snowboard. Actually my wife and I are counting the days (years, unfortunately) until we can move out of this area. We moved here from Virginia (her job) and while I do love a good snowstorm, and some cold...this is just more than I want. Plus she has health issues and this climate is tough on her. Understand the difficultly adjusting. I moved here from the south, and it takes some getting used to, especially with a cold sensitive condition. That said, I enjoy our occasionally rough winters far more than the relentlessly swampy, steaming summer weather that runs for some three months in much of the southeast and precludes any outdoor activity as much as the most harsh cold does up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Understand the difficultly adjusting. I moved here from the south, and it takes some getting used to, especially with a cold sensitive condition. That said, I enjoy our occasionally rough winters far more than the relentlessly swampy, steaming summer weather that runs for some three months in much of the southeast and precludes any outdoor activity as much as the most harsh cold does up here. I was born in NYC but went to middle school and HS in southeast VA, where winters with zero snow was possible. Also,had a zero snow (sleet only) winter in SE CT in the late 90s. And having lived many years on the southern new england shoreline, it wasn't that much snowier than VA many years. So the climate here is quite enjoyable for a snow nut. I do ski, but not as much as I used to. I just wish I lived a little further north to get in on the more reliable and substantial lake effect. I will say that I don't really enjoy subzero wind chills anymore. Screw that. I also spent a year in southern Mississippi, where the oppressive humidity was only outdone by the foul odors from the paper mills. I'd stay in NY longer term were it not for the confiscatory taxes, but that's a subject for another forum. Choose your poison! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Top analog for the storm on Sunday. Look at that disgusting inverse lollipop near SYR. DISGUSTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Understand the difficultly adjusting. I moved here from the south, and it takes some getting used to, especially with a cold sensitive condition. That said, I enjoy our occasionally rough winters far more than the relentlessly swampy, steaming summer weather that runs for some three months in much of the southeast and precludes any outdoor activity as much as the most harsh cold does up here. We knew what we were getting into. My wife went to grad school at the U of R and I was in Albany, so we both experienced quite a few upstate winters. Then we moved to Maryland and Virginia for 10 years, then a job change for her brought us back to Rochester. I grew up on Long Island during the late 60s/70s (graduated HS in 80). There were many lean snow years during that period, including one year when NYC recorded either 0.8 or 2.8" total (can't recall the exact year). But I did get to experience the 1978 blizzard (24" at our house) which remains the single biggest snowstorm I've seen. Everyone is different; I really enjoyed the climate of Virginia (Richmond area). The hot weather doesn't bother me and there is still some winter, just not an overwhelming amount. I don't think I could live any further south than Virginia or North Carolina, though. Anyway, I don't want to rain on anyone's parade (regarding rain or freezing rain to cut down on the drifting). I'll be just as excited as anyone else once the flakes start flying again. Could just use a little break, that's all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 BGM snow map vs. posted winter storm watches is curious. I'm in Otsego County under the area of max snowfall on their map yet they didn't put us in blue. Wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Same with ALB area and where they have their watches. I wouldn't get too hung up on where the watches are right now, you should get a decent snow. BGM's probably coordinating with notoriously late to the party NWS Albany (which isn't always a bad thing), Also, most of the substantial snow is probably more a later Sunday-Monday time frame in your area...I would imagine you will be in a watch or warning come tomorrow. . BGM snow map vs. posted winter storm watches is curious. I'm in Otsego County under the area of max snowfall on their map yet they didn't put us in blue. Wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 BGM snow map vs. posted winter storm watches is curious. I'm in Otsego County under the area of max snowfall on their map yet they didn't put us in blue. Wonder why. Yeah that doesn't seem to make much sense at all, would expect BGM to expand the watch this evening. ALY is usually conservative too so assuming no big changes on the 00z suite watches should fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Same with ALB area and where they have their watches. I wouldn't get too hung up on where the watches are right now, you should get a decent snow. BGM's probably coordinating with notoriously late to the party NWS Albany (which isn't always a bad thing), Also, most of the substantial snow is probably more a later Sunday-Monday time frame in your area...I would imagine you will be in a watch or warning come tomorrow. . Sometimes I don't understand ALY's philosophy.. isn't the point to make the public aware in advance? Why not have to downgrade rather than go from no watch to winter storm warning the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It was around this time frame before the New England blizzard when the Euro still had ENY with around an inch of precip, and watches/warnings went flying for over a foot. Needless to say it didn't happen, haha. Both BGM and ALB's forecast discussions alluded to probably expansion of those watches soon. Yeah that doesn't seem to make much sense at all, would expect BGM to expand the watch this evening. ALY is usually conservative too so assuming no big changes on the 00z suite watches should fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Haha, I've saved screenshots over the years where they've kept the Albany area under no headlines when everyone else (north, south, east, and west) had them. They certainly can be conservative at times... I grew up in the foothills of western CT, and despite its small size, its covered by 3 different NWS offices (Taunton, Upton, and Albany) all with different criteria. Anyway, Litchfield County (the snowiest part of the state) is covered under Albany...many times over the years Litchfield would be under nothing while the rest of the state had a watch or warning. it drove the tv stations nuts! Sometimes I don't understand ALY's philosophy.. isn't the point to make the public aware in advance? Why not have to downgrade rather than go from no watch to winter storm warning the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Haha, I've saved screenshots over the years where they've kept the Albany area under no headlines when everyone else (north, south, east, and west) had them. They certainly can be conservative at times... I grew up in the foothills of western CT, and despite its small size, its covered by 3 different NWS offices (Taunton, Upton, and Albany) all with different criteria. Anyway, Litchfield County (the snowiest part of the state) is covered under Albany...many times over the years Litchfield would be under nothing while the rest of the state had a watch or warning. it drove the tv stations nuts! Haha that sounds about right. I know the WSW criteria differs by an inch in the ALY and BGM CWA's so I guess I'll give them that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 From KBGM's afternoon discussion: CONSIDERING ABV REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STM WATCH ATTM IN OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ZNS (YATES/SENECA/SRN CAYUGA/ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA). IT IS CERTAINLY PSBL...PERHAPS EVEN PROBABLE...THAT BY EARLY SAT THE WATCH AREA WILL BE EXPANDED (AT LEAST PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS AND WRN CATSKILLS COULD BE PRIME CANDIDATES). HOPEFULLY...LATER MODEL RUNS WILL ADD MORE CERTAINTY TO THE CURRENT FCST. THE REST OF THE FA NOT PRESENTLY IN A WS WATCH ... WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 From KBGM's afternoon discussion: CONSIDERING ABV REASONING AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STM WATCH ATTM IN OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ZNS (YATES/SENECA/SRN CAYUGA/ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA). IT IS CERTAINLY PSBL...PERHAPS EVEN PROBABLE...THAT BY EARLY SAT THE WATCH AREA WILL BE EXPANDED (AT LEAST PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS AND WRN CATSKILLS COULD BE PRIME CANDIDATES). HOPEFULLY...LATER MODEL RUNS WILL ADD MORE CERTAINTY TO THE CURRENT FCST. THE REST OF THE FA NOT PRESENTLY IN A WS WATCH ... WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WHO. Is it me or does KBGM seem to slant their outlooks based on PA weather? It never snows down there, give it up. I may be paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 New NAM giving barely any snow to wny. 4" in Rochester. I know a lot are discounting it, but it is in its wheel house att. Hope GFS still sees cooler solution. Not a high confidence scenario for wny and Rochester, despite that #1 analogue that gave Rochester 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Honestly, I wouldn't give any thought to the NAM whatsoever right now. This time tomorrow it will look completely different. GFS looks good, but wow Eastern New England just keeps getting it the past couple weeks. Unreal. New NAM giving barely any snow to wny. 4" in Rochester. I know a lot are discounting it, but it is in its wheel house att. Hope GFS still sees cooler solution. Not a high confidence scenario for wny and Rochester, despite that #1 analogue that gave Rochester 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm planning a trip somewhere warm if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yeah this threat is starting to look less likely. The GFS takes a favorable track with the most potent wave south of here, but warm air advection changes things up. I don't think we ever change over to rain though, as surface temps look to stay below 32 unless you are below the NYS/PA line. Either way going to be a messy one for most of WNY. Will make final calls with the Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This IS looking less and less likely, depending on were you may be in WNY. However, we still have some time for things to change. Plus, THERE IS alot of snow on the ground AND Lake Erie is frozen. So I do wonder if maybe a colder sollution is still possible. Even if it does end up as warm as the Nam and GFS are saying, Rochester and points north and east are still looking at a 6 inch deal. Hopefully we can keep the mix down to rte 5 and 20 (which is common somehow). And my friends in Buf can get some decent action also. Typically, if Buf goes to mix, Roch follows inside of an hr or two. Keep posting folks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 To me it looks as though the Nam is the outlier here with most models depicting a further South track of the surface low but who knows! The mixing line on both the GFS and NAM do put places like WNY and NWPA in a mixing scenario but the Euro's depiction is much colder than the other models so who knows. GFS @60 Canadian @60 Nam @60 It looks to me like the Nam holds on to the primary alot longer than the globals so maybe The Nam is onto something as we get closer to the event. I guess we'll see but as of right now the Nam is an outlier but may be onto something, IMO! I will say this though. The Nam at 12Z was further North than its 00Z so maybe its correcting towards the globals?? All 3 Global models have this going south towards WV except the Nam which brings it up into WPA which I think is dead wrong, but we'll see I suppose!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The Nam is definitely trending towards the globals and also coming in with a slightly colder solution with the 06Z as it now has the primary heading into SWPA instead on NWPA so this is definitely a trend in the right direction! Precip output also trended a bit further S&W so all in all good news but we still have to see where this ZOB sets up the next day or so but I think the models have this one pegged!! 00Z Precip output 06Z Nam precip output Definitely further South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think BUF is going to bust with that WSW, this has mixed precip event written all over it unless you live close the L.Ontario shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think we need to keep an eye out for a next weekend. GFS for Sunday morning looks downright scary. Look at the wind potential on the 0Z. If I am reading that right we have wind gusts to 50 mph with a true ground blizzard. 6Z has same thing just a bit weaker. Heard Canadian had something similar. May never happen but that is some damn cold air in Canada. Not sure on Euro out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 There is really poor continuity ongoing in the snowfall maps from BGM. BGM has their eastern counties at 10-14 inches; adjacent areas on the ALY maps are at 18-24 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 000 NOUS61 KBTV 071125 FTMTYX MESSAGE DATE: FEB 7 2015 11:25:30 THE KTYX RADAR IS UNAVAILABLE DUE TO A PHONE LINE ISSUE. TECHS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM, BUT A RESTORATION TIME IS NOT CURRENTLY KNOWN. It figures the Montague radar would go down with this event imminent. Round one of the storm has started here. It's been snowing for a couple of hours but the accumulation is minimal so far. However, the intensity and flake size has increased in the last half hour. Hopefully I'm far enough north to avoid the taint in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Snowing baby powder here for the last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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