Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hey Matt. Probably our better chance of snows come later Sun....and still, there is some uncertainty with the exact location of the baroclinicity "zone" that these shortwaves are going to act upon. If you are willing to travel a bit (north or south of the Tug) then a light to moderate snow "viewing" by you is almost a certainty, during the timeframe you are here. LES potential will be more of an "enhancement" as surface winds will be from the ENE-N throughout the event. Next week (later) and beyond look better for LES off Ontario. Yeah, if I had to choose between this weekend and next weekend to chase, I'd definitely wait. The LES set-up for next weekend looks promising. Thanks. I may wait until PD weekend, since I'll have 3 days, thus a bigger window, margin for error, and flexibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's looking like it could turn mighty cold between the 15-20th. JB is even mentioning February 1934. He's not saying it will be surpassed or even equaled but that we might end up with one of the coldest Februaries since then. Will be interesting. JB also pimping highest snow totals between I-80 in PA and I-90 in NY. He tweeted that axis of highest qpf over next week is too far north. He may be right, but sure smacks of IMBY wishcasting. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I really hope it's not that cold on the 20th-22nd. That is my ski trip. Hoping for 25-32 temps.I just got back from an amazing week at whiteface despite some frigid temps, two of the days never got above zero! We were able to get out though, you just have to seriously gear up. That said, we also picked up 20 inches of snow over 4 days which was the fluffiest most amazing powder I've ever experienced on the east coast! Just awesome!With this next dump of snow a lot of backcountry should start opening up at local resorts as we have t had a snowpack like this in a long time. Should be fantastic Here are some pics from 'dacks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I just got back from an amazing week at whiteface despite some frigid temps, two of the days never got above zero! We were able to get out though, you just have to seriously gear up. That said, we also picked up 20 inches of snow over 4 days which was the fluffiest most amazing powder I've ever experienced on the east coast! Just awesome! With this next dump of snow a lot of backcountry should start opening up at local resorts as we have t had a snowpack like this in a long time. Should be fantastic Here are some pics from 'dacks!image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg Omg! Amazing pictures man. Snowboarding in powder is the best! I really need to make it out to the Dacks soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It's looking like it could turn mighty cold between the 15-20th. JB is even mentioning February 1934. He's not saying it will be surpassed or even equaled but that we might end up with one of the coldest Februaries since then. Will be interesting. last Feb was the coldest since Feb 1979 in BUF. That month featured a stretch where 9 out of 10 consecutive days had below zero readings with four in the double digits below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There's certainly a trend to move the initial overrunning in the first 2 weak systems to the north. The third and stronger system looks to be the one to do something more significant in the WNY area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 There's certainly a trend to move the initial overrunning in the first 2 weak systems to the north. The third and stronger system looks to be the one to do something more significant in the WNY area. Have you seen this? Pretty amazing. http://weather.buffalonews.com/2015/02/04/icymi-buffalos-year-weather-2014/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Finally, the north march stops. The 6z Nam puts hvy snow totals back on the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I just got back from an amazing week at whiteface despite some frigid temps, two of the days never got above zero! We were able to get out though, you just have to seriously gear up. That said, we also picked up 20 inches of snow over 4 days which was the fluffiest most amazing powder I've ever experienced on the east coast! Just awesome! With this next dump of snow a lot of backcountry should start opening up at local resorts as we have t had a snowpack like this in a long time. Should be fantastic Here are some pics from 'dacks!image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg Beautiful Pics Delta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The gfs and euro have decent amounts for us, but that nam has little for NYS. You'd have to go to Montreal, haha. Luckily it's the nam, and mostly on its own there. By Sunday it may be so far north that it's south again. Finally, the north march stops. The 6z Nam puts hvy snow totals back on the thruway. image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 6z GFS moved south considerably, and the NAM came a little off of its extreme solution. Let's see if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Quite the mini-blizzard in northern Erie County this morning, including BUF. Heavy snow with SW winds gusting over 40 mph during the morning commute. Reports of accidents all over the place. I saw at least 3 cars off the road and a few other accidents on my way to work in Lancaster. Big pile-up on the 33. Special morning gift from Lake Erie. I guess there's enough open water out there to still produce some heavy LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Quite the mini-blizzard in northern Erie County this morning, including BUF. Heavy snow with SW winds gusting over 40 mph during the morning commute. Reports of accidents all over the place. I saw at least 3 cars off the road and a few other accidents on my way to work in Lancaster. Big pile-up on the 33. Special morning gift from Lake Erie. I guess there's enough open water out there to still produce some heavy LE. One other thing....this is what makes living on a Great Lake so cool. You can get a very high impact winter weather event (i.e., blizzard, or close to it) with absolutely no advanced warning from the NWS or any other weather outlet. BUF issued a belated special weather statement after heavy snow had been falling for over 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 One other thing....this is what makes living on a Great Lake so cool. You can get a very high impact winter weather event (i.e., blizzard, or close to it) with absolutely no advanced warning from the NWS or any other weather outlet. BUF issued a belated special weather statement after heavy snow had been falling for over 30 minutes. Why do these events always seem to happen during the morning commute time. We've had several events this winter where an arctic front has passed through the Syracuse area between 7 and 8 AM producing about a half hour of heavy snow right when people are trying to get to work. The roads this morning were really bad here too. A half to an inch of snow with temps in the single digits turn the roads into a sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12zNAM and 12zGFS are vastly different in the evolution/placement of the narrow baroclinic zone over the northeast/NYS at T+2.5 and beyond.... I don't want rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Positive trends on the 12z models. Still have time to make this a mostly snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I flew from Chicago to Buffalo on Tuesday and was amazed at the long stretch of open water and slush ice in Lake Erie, which easily went on for 75+ miles along the center of the lake. I thought that it might freeze up a bit this week, but I suppose today shows that the LES window is still open just a crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12zNAM and 12zGFS are vastly different in the evolution/placement of the narrow baroclinic zone over the northeast/NYS at T+2.5 and beyond.... I don't want rain.... Regarding the low in the Sun/Mon time frame, the vortmax is just about onshore. We should start to see more agreement between the 2. I'm thinking that the arctic high is going to keep that boundary further south, just my opinion. Also, this low won't get too wound up (like last week's) since it's primarily a northern stream system. Can someone summarize the 12z Euro when it's available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think the model trends are on Buffalo and Rochesters side, looks like that high is trending stronger pushing everything to the south. I think this week Buffalo and Rochester could easily see 12"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Why do these events always seem to happen during the morning commute time. We've had several events this winter where an arctic front has passed through the Syracuse area between 7 and 8 AM producing about a half hour of heavy snow right when people are trying to get to work. The roads this morning were really bad here too. A half to an inch of snow with temps in the single digits turn the roads into a sheet of ice. I don't know why, but I'm sure glad they do. There is nothing more fun than snowy roads and mayhem in the middle of the winter. I wish the roads were always snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't know why, but I'm sure glad they do. There is nothing more fun than snowy roads and mayhem in the middle of the winter. I wish the roads were always snow covered. It's fun until someone loses control, bounces off the guide rail and closes down a lane. Then traffic backs up 2 miles and people are a half hour late for work. Happened this morning on I 481 north of Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just did some measuring...average snow depth a solid 15" (range 14-17" over about a dozen locations). At this point I wouldn't mind a touch of freezing rain or even rain, to put an end to the incessant blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow anyone else see/hear of that massive pileup on I-81 N just north of Syracuse? Pictures are devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow anyone else see/hear of that massive pileup on I-81 N just north of Syracuse? Pictures are devastating. just now heard about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just did some measuring...average snow depth a solid 15" (range 14-17" over about a dozen locations). At this point I wouldn't mind a touch of freezing rain or even rain, to put an end to the incessant blowing and drifting. What a blasphemous thing to say. You definitely don't ski or snowboard because that is my greatest fear right now. The conditions are beyond primo. Also, I just don't understand the mentality of not wanting winter weather. I love blowing and drifting! Apparently I'm the only person on here who truly enjoys every facet of severe winter weather. I want it to be as nasty as possible all winter, no reprieve....ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY306 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015NYZ001>005-010>014-085-070415-/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.150208T1700Z-150210T0600Z/NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE306 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGERLAKES REGION.* TIMING...FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAYNIGHT.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 7 INCHES OR MORE.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...STORM WILL BRING SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POORVISIBILITIES THAT WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARDFROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING MORE OF A WINTRY MIX THAT WILL DIMINISHSNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICEACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.&&$THOMAS/CHURCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What a blasphemous thing to say. You definitely don't ski or snowboard because that is my greatest fear right now. The conditions are beyond primo. Also, I just don't understand the mentality of not wanting winter weather. I love blowing and drifting! Apparently I'm the only person on here who truly enjoys every facet of severe winter weather. I want it to be as nasty as possible all winter, no reprieve....ever! To each his own. And you're right, I don't ski or snowboard. Actually my wife and I are counting the days (years, unfortunately) until we can move out of this area. We moved here from Virginia (her job) and while I do love a good snowstorm, and some cold...this is just more than I want. Plus she has health issues and this climate is tough on her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Right on cue, Lake Erie is spitting out another band in Northern Erie County as if to traumatize the weary travelers that battled the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wow anyone else see/hear of that massive pileup on I-81 N just north of Syracuse? Pictures are devastating. Looks like a demolition derby in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Right on cue, Lake Erie is spitting out another band in Northern Erie County as if to traumatize the weary travelers that battled the morning commute. That's pretty amazing. The timing is impeccable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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