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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Hey Matt.

Probably our better chance of snows come later Sun....and still, there is some uncertainty with the exact location of the baroclinicity "zone" that these shortwaves are going to act upon.  If you are willing to travel a bit (north or south of the Tug) then a light to moderate snow "viewing" by you is almost a certainty, during the timeframe you are here.  LES potential will be more of an "enhancement" as surface winds will be from the ENE-N throughout the event.  Next week (later) and beyond look better for LES off Ontario.

 

 

Yeah, if I had to choose between this weekend and next weekend to chase, I'd definitely wait. The LES set-up for next weekend looks promising.

 

 

Thanks.  I may wait until PD weekend, since I'll have 3 days, thus a bigger window, margin for error, and flexibility.

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It's looking like it could turn mighty cold between the 15-20th. JB is even mentioning February 1934. He's not saying it will be surpassed or even equaled but that we might end up with one of the coldest Februaries since then. Will be interesting.

JB also pimping highest snow totals between I-80 in PA and I-90 in NY. He tweeted that axis of highest qpf over next week is too far north. He may be right, but sure smacks of IMBY wishcasting. Again.

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I really hope it's not that cold on the 20th-22nd. That is my ski trip. Hoping for 25-32 temps.

I just got back from an amazing week at whiteface despite some frigid temps, two of the days never got above zero! We were able to get out though, you just have to seriously gear up. That said, we also picked up 20 inches of snow over 4 days which was the fluffiest most amazing powder I've ever experienced on the east coast! Just awesome!

With this next dump of snow a lot of backcountry should start opening up at local resorts as we have t had a snowpack like this in a long time. Should be fantastic

Here are some pics from 'dacks!post-912-0-51606500-1423185066_thumb.jpgpost-912-0-09084900-1423185122_thumb.jpgpost-912-0-95468200-1423185026_thumb.jpgpost-912-0-19107700-1423185195_thumb.jpgpost-912-0-11634600-1423185245_thumb.jpg

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I just got back from an amazing week at whiteface despite some frigid temps, two of the days never got above zero! We were able to get out though, you just have to seriously gear up. That said, we also picked up 20 inches of snow over 4 days which was the fluffiest most amazing powder I've ever experienced on the east coast! Just awesome!

With this next dump of snow a lot of backcountry should start opening up at local resorts as we have t had a snowpack like this in a long time. Should be fantastic

Here are some pics from 'dacks!attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Omg! Amazing pictures man. Snowboarding in powder is the best! I really need to make it out to the Dacks soon.

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It's looking like it could turn mighty cold between the 15-20th. JB is even mentioning February 1934. He's not saying it will be surpassed or even equaled but that we might end up with one of the coldest Februaries since then. Will be interesting.

last Feb was the coldest since Feb 1979 in BUF.

That month featured a stretch where 9 out of 10 consecutive days had below zero readings with four in the double digits below zero.

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There's certainly a trend to move the initial overrunning in the first 2 weak systems to the north.  The third and stronger system looks to be the one to do something more significant in the WNY area.  

 

Have you seen this? Pretty amazing.

 

http://weather.buffalonews.com/2015/02/04/icymi-buffalos-year-weather-2014/

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I just got back from an amazing week at whiteface despite some frigid temps, two of the days never got above zero! We were able to get out though, you just have to seriously gear up. That said, we also picked up 20 inches of snow over 4 days which was the fluffiest most amazing powder I've ever experienced on the east coast! Just awesome!

With this next dump of snow a lot of backcountry should start opening up at local resorts as we have t had a snowpack like this in a long time. Should be fantastic

Here are some pics from 'dacks!attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

Beautiful Pics Delta!

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The gfs and euro have decent amounts for us, but that nam has little for NYS. You'd have to go to Montreal, haha. Luckily it's the nam, and mostly on its own there. By Sunday it may be so far north that it's south again.

Finally, the north march stops. The 6z Nam puts hvy snow totals back on the thruway. attachicon.gifimage.jpg

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Quite the mini-blizzard in northern Erie County this morning, including BUF.  Heavy snow with SW winds gusting over 40 mph during the morning commute.  Reports of accidents all over the place.  I saw at least 3 cars off the road and a few other accidents on my way to work in Lancaster.  Big pile-up on the 33.  

 

Special morning gift from Lake Erie.  I guess there's enough open water out there to still produce some heavy LE.  

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Quite the mini-blizzard in northern Erie County this morning, including BUF.  Heavy snow with SW winds gusting over 40 mph during the morning commute.  Reports of accidents all over the place.  I saw at least 3 cars off the road and a few other accidents on my way to work in Lancaster.  Big pile-up on the 33.  

 

Special morning gift from Lake Erie.  I guess there's enough open water out there to still produce some heavy LE.  

One other thing....this is what makes living on a Great Lake so cool.  You can get a very high impact winter weather event (i.e., blizzard, or close to it) with absolutely no advanced warning from the NWS or any other weather outlet.  BUF issued a belated special weather statement after heavy snow had been falling for over 30 minutes.  

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One other thing....this is what makes living on a Great Lake so cool. You can get a very high impact winter weather event (i.e., blizzard, or close to it) with absolutely no advanced warning from the NWS or any other weather outlet. BUF issued a belated special weather statement after heavy snow had been falling for over 30 minutes.

Why do these events always seem to happen during the morning commute time. We've had several events this winter where an arctic front has passed through the Syracuse area between 7 and 8 AM producing about a half hour of heavy snow right when people are trying to get to work. The roads this morning were really bad here too. A half to an inch of snow with temps in the single digits turn the roads into a sheet of ice.

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I flew from Chicago to Buffalo on Tuesday and was amazed at the long stretch of open water and slush ice in Lake Erie, which easily went on for 75+ miles along the center of the lake. I thought that it might freeze up a bit this week, but I suppose today shows that the LES window is still open just a crack.

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12zNAM and 12zGFS are vastly different in the evolution/placement of the narrow baroclinic zone over the northeast/NYS at T+2.5 and beyond....

 

I don't want rain....

 

Regarding the low in the Sun/Mon time frame, the vortmax is just about onshore. We should start to see more agreement between the 2. I'm thinking that the arctic high is going to keep that boundary further south, just my opinion. Also, this low won't get too wound up (like last week's) since it's primarily a northern stream system.

 

Can someone summarize the 12z Euro when it's available?

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Why do these events always seem to happen during the morning commute time. We've had several events this winter where an arctic front has passed through the Syracuse area between 7 and 8 AM producing about a half hour of heavy snow right when people are trying to get to work. The roads this morning were really bad here too. A half to an inch of snow with temps in the single digits turn the roads into a sheet of ice.

I don't know why, but I'm sure glad they do.  There is nothing more fun than snowy roads and mayhem in the middle of the winter.  I wish the roads were always snow covered.  

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I don't know why, but I'm sure glad they do. There is nothing more fun than snowy roads and mayhem in the middle of the winter. I wish the roads were always snow covered.

It's fun until someone loses control, bounces off the guide rail and closes down a lane. Then traffic backs up 2 miles and people are a half hour late for work. Happened this morning on I 481 north of Syracuse.

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Just did some measuring...average snow depth a solid 15" (range 14-17" over about a dozen locations). At this point I wouldn't mind a touch of freezing rain or even rain, to put an end to the incessant blowing and drifting.

What a blasphemous thing to say. You definitely don't ski or snowboard because that is my greatest fear right now. The conditions are beyond primo.

Also, I just don't understand the mentality of not wanting winter weather. I love blowing and drifting! Apparently I'm the only person on here who truly enjoys every facet of severe winter weather. I want it to be as nasty as possible all winter, no reprieve....ever!

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
306 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015

NYZ001>005-010>014-085-070415-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.150208T1700Z-150210T0600Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
306 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND THE FINGER
LAKES REGION.

* TIMING...FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 7 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...STORM WILL BRING SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING MORE OF A WINTRY MIX THAT WILL DIMINISH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$

THOMAS/CHURCH

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What a blasphemous thing to say. You definitely don't ski or snowboard because that is my greatest fear right now. The conditions are beyond primo.

Also, I just don't understand the mentality of not wanting winter weather. I love blowing and drifting! Apparently I'm the only person on here who truly enjoys every facet of severe winter weather. I want it to be as nasty as possible all winter, no reprieve....ever!

 

To each his own. And you're right, I don't ski or snowboard.

 

Actually my wife and I are counting the days (years, unfortunately) until we can move out of this area. We moved here from Virginia (her job) and while I do love a good snowstorm, and some cold...this is just more than I want. Plus she has health issues and this climate is tough on her.

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