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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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0z GFS holds serve with 12-16". Very good agreement on all the models and we're only 3 days out.

 

It also has another storm diving down along the arctic front next Wednesday with 6-10". Interesting.

 

The CMC jumped north, shifting a 2'+ jackpot to the Syracuse area with major mixing issues across the southern tier and Finger Lakes. Hopefully it's just the warm/amped bias manifesting itself.

 

N4Ayr83.png

 

Guidance is definitely heading towards a consensus. Where are you located again? Just north of Syracuse? You look to be in a perfect spot for this one!

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Guidance is definitely heading towards a consensus. Where are you located again? Just north of Syracuse? You look to be in a perfect spot for this one!

No, I'm in Ithaca, the little dot on all of the high-res models which gets 1/3 less precip than all of the areas surrounding it. Even the new GFS picks up on it. <_<

 

Anyway, it's 45 miles SSW of Syracuse and 40 miles NW of Binghamton.

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No, I'm in Ithaca, the little dot on all of the high-res models which gets 1/3 less precip than all of the areas surrounding it. Even the new GFS picks up on it. <_<

 

Anyway, it's 45 miles SSW of Syracuse and 40 miles NW of Binghamton.

 

Oh I was confusing you with Gravestone lol. ^_^ I think he lives North of Syracuse.

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I'm not seeing those snow totals supported by model output, I'm so confused. There just seem to be a series of junk systems plunging SE...I'm envisioning more 2-4" systems like today...how is CNY/WNY racking up those totals, even if it is over 5+ days?

 

I am basically thinking several low pressure systems will ride along a favorable Baroclinic zone which will result in several 2-4/3-6 inch snowfalls that will add up over time. There is 3 waves of low pressure showing up over the course of a few days..

 

From Buf NWS:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG BAROCLINIC

ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC

ZONE WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A SERIES OF PACIFIC

WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AT

THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING TIMING OF THE STRONGER

SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AND THUS DIFFICULTY EXISTS IN

TIMING THE PERIODIC STRONGER FORCING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND

MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS

UNCERTAIN...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR PERIODS OF

ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY TUESDAY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN AS A CUTOFF LOW

BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...TAKING THE BULK OF THE

SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO OUR EAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF

WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS

NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS

NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA

FOR WEDNESDAY.

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FWIW, most of those model output's for snow totals assume a 10:1 ratio....should be a tad higher at times...especially the further north you go.

 

Yes, Gravestone and I "look" to be in a good position for jackpotting (first time in a long time!!)....it would be over a span of 2-3 days...but as BUF NWS notes, the details certainly are not set in stone, and really, all it would take is for one of those impulses to be a bit stronger or weaker (or the HP to the north to be a bit stronger or weaker) and that ribbon of baroclinicity would shift north or south during that period....and since the modeled totals are strongly dependent on staying power (duration), that ribbon could be more diffuse, and less impressive with the jackpot totals.....

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12Z GFS is looking good for the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. It gives all of upstate NY at least an inch of precipitation with a few lollipops of 1.25. It looks to be a long drawn out event with no crushing snowfall rates but we could end up with a foot when it all said and done if this verifies.

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Hi everyone.  I am thinking about chasing this weekend in/near the Tug.  I know conditions aren't ideal for a chase, but we have been getting screwed down here, I need to see some snow, and this is a weekend I can actually get away.  Can you be kind enough to please answer a question? :)

 
 Between synoptic, upslope, LES, do you think any areas will get 8-12"+ between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon?  That is kind of my threshold.  Even if light snow, continuous snow and 8"+ is probably enough for me to chase. Also how is PD weekend looking at this point? Thanks!
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Hi everyone.  I am thinking about chasing this weekend in/near the Tug.  I know conditions aren't ideal for a chase, but we have been getting screwed down here, I need to see some snow, and this is a weekend I can actually get away.  Can you be kind enough to please answer a question? :)

 
 Between synoptic, upslope, LES, do you think any areas will get 8-12"+ between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon?  That is kind of my threshold.  Even if light snow, continuous snow and 8"+ is probably enough for me to chase. Also how is PD weekend looking at this point? Thanks!

 

Hey Matt.

Probably our better chance of snows come later Sun....and still, there is some uncertainty with the exact location of the baroclinicity "zone" that these shortwaves are going to act upon.  If you are willing to travel a bit (north or south of the Tug) then a light to moderate snow "viewing" by you is almost a certainty, during the timeframe you are here.  LES potential will be more of an "enhancement" as surface winds will be from the ENE-N throughout the event.  Next week (later) and beyond look better for LES off Ontario.

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Hey Matt.

Probably our better chance of snows come later Sun....and still, there is some uncertainty with the exact location of the baroclinicity "zone" that these shortwaves are going to act upon.  If you are willing to travel a bit (north or south of the Tug) then a light to moderate snow "viewing" by you is almost a certainty, during the timeframe you are here.  LES potential will be more of an "enhancement" as surface winds will be from the ENE-N throughout the event.  Next week (later) and beyond look better for LES off Ontario.

 

Yeah, if I had to choose between this weekend and next weekend to chase, I'd definitely wait. The LES set-up for next weekend looks promising.

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BUF NWS says giddy up.

 

BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY STRONG JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MODELS CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC / OVERRUNNING ASCENT ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE FRONT...RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SETUP WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE JET
WILL ACT TO FOCUS TIMES OF INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES
...LIKELY
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...TAPERING OFF TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INHERENT WITH WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT SETS UP. IF
FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOWFALL...BUT FARTHER SOUTH MAY GIVE LESS SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
TIER AS THEY WOULD BE TOO FAR INTO THE COLD AIR. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THE CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW WILL ADD UP OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES
SATURDAY...A COUPLE INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND A COUPLE INCHES SUNDAY.


BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GFS/EC ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT A STRONGER WAVE THAT COULD BECOME CUTOFF JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO PRODUCE MUCH
STRONGER QG FORCING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COULD PICK UP 4 TO
7 INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS
LARGELY HINGE ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW HOLDING COURSE...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES ONCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IN THE HWO.

WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD ADD UP TO A
FOOT OR MORE FOR MANY LOCATIONS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A THREE DAY PERIOD. THE
PROLONGED LIGHT SNOWFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY NOT CAUSE MUCH
IMPACT...AS SNOW REMOVAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH THE
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD WHICH BEARS WATCHING REMAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE SYSTEM COME TOGETHER AS MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING...THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A TOUGH ONE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID WEEK SHOULD BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SNOW AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BREAKS DOWN BEHIND THE MONDAY WEATHER SYSTEM. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE.

BY LATE WEEK...MODEL CONESUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. IN FACT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL SUPPORTED BY THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT BY NEXT FRIDAY...A LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES SHOW A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA
AT 192 HOURS OUT!
THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE NORTHEAST CONUS TO
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING. THESE
IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW CHANCES ARE
HARDER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH
SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO ARE LIKELY.

 

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BY LATE WEEK...MODEL CONESUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT

THAT THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES WITH

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. IN FACT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE

WELL SUPPORTED BY THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT BY NEXT FRIDAY...A LARGE

AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD

ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS STANDARDIZED

ANOMALIES SHOW A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE

STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA

AT 192 HOURS OUT! THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE NORTHEAST CONUS TO

ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING. THESE

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO WELL BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW CHANCES ARE

HARDER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH

SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE

ONTARIO ARE LIKELY.

 

CONTINUE.

This cold is getting ridicolous wow :violin:

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Looks good. The Sunday-Monday timeframe is the one to watch with the low going south of us and possibly forming another off the coast. That's where we have the chance to get the most snow. The  overunning precip before looks north of Buffalo and light amounts 2-4" or so. Also, not to much of a chance of anything but freezing precip unless south of the NY/PA border as surface temps never make it above 32.

 

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