BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 0z GFS holds serve with 12-16". Very good agreement on all the models and we're only 3 days out. It also has another storm diving down along the arctic front next Wednesday with 6-10". Interesting. The CMC jumped north, shifting a 2'+ jackpot to the Syracuse area with major mixing issues across the southern tier and Finger Lakes. Hopefully it's just the warm/amped bias manifesting itself. Guidance is definitely heading towards a consensus. Where are you located again? Just north of Syracuse? You look to be in a perfect spot for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Is that Lake effect off Ontario hitting you? It looks really intense on radar. Yea looks like a quick burst of an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Guidance is definitely heading towards a consensus. Where are you located again? Just north of Syracuse? You look to be in a perfect spot for this one! No, I'm in Ithaca, the little dot on all of the high-res models which gets 1/3 less precip than all of the areas surrounding it. Even the new GFS picks up on it. Anyway, it's 45 miles SSW of Syracuse and 40 miles NW of Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm not seeing those snow totals supported by model output, I'm so confused. There just seem to be a series of junk systems plunging SE...I'm envisioning more 2-4" systems like today...how is CNY/WNY racking up those totals, even if it is over 5+ days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 No, I'm in Ithaca, the little dot on all of the high-res models which gets 1/3 less precip than all of the areas surrounding it. Even the new GFS picks up on it. Anyway, it's 45 miles SSW of Syracuse and 40 miles NW of Binghamton. Oh I was confusing you with Gravestone lol. I think he lives North of Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm not seeing those snow totals supported by model output, I'm so confused. There just seem to be a series of junk systems plunging SE...I'm envisioning more 2-4" systems like today...how is CNY/WNY racking up those totals, even if it is over 5+ days? I am basically thinking several low pressure systems will ride along a favorable Baroclinic zone which will result in several 2-4/3-6 inch snowfalls that will add up over time. There is 3 waves of low pressure showing up over the course of a few days.. From Buf NWS: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN TERMS OF RESOLVING TIMING OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AND THUS DIFFICULTY EXISTS IN TIMING THE PERIODIC STRONGER FORCING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS UNCERTAIN...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BY TUESDAY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN AS A CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST...TAKING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND ASCENT TO OUR EAST. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElmiraNYWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Elmira, NY started with a moderate, wetter snow, with a temp was around 33°F. Currently there is a moderate, drier snow, with a temp around 27°F. There is about 2.5 inches of snow on the ground with a heavier snow, the wind is picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Another great hit on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 FWIW, most of those model output's for snow totals assume a 10:1 ratio....should be a tad higher at times...especially the further north you go. Yes, Gravestone and I "look" to be in a good position for jackpotting (first time in a long time!!)....it would be over a span of 2-3 days...but as BUF NWS notes, the details certainly are not set in stone, and really, all it would take is for one of those impulses to be a bit stronger or weaker (or the HP to the north to be a bit stronger or weaker) and that ribbon of baroclinicity would shift north or south during that period....and since the modeled totals are strongly dependent on staying power (duration), that ribbon could be more diffuse, and less impressive with the jackpot totals..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Thanks for the input guys! My usual confusion is lessened! hopefully this materializes...if it's gonna be cold, bring the snow. 4" last night, 18" on ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The airport got 5.7" yesterday and 2.6" the night before. 8.3" storm total for KBUF. Nice event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 3.5" here from last night's storm, nice little event. The radar kept backfilling for hours. Also, the 6z GFS was identical to the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Getting buried out here in Skaneateles from that little lake band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 12Z GFS is looking good for the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. It gives all of upstate NY at least an inch of precipitation with a few lollipops of 1.25. It looks to be a long drawn out event with no crushing snowfall rates but we could end up with a foot when it all said and done if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 6 inch right here in Ithaca this morning. Blowing around my lot too with dark clouds approaching. Lots of snow coming next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 12z GFS holds serve and in fact is a bit wetter. The main axis of accumulations across NYS hasn't changed at all over the past 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Guidance is way north with these events. Look like rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The Euro from hour 90-110 is awesome for NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Snow depth of 21" at KBUF. It's been awhile since I've seen that there. 20-24" average depth here. Lots of compaction with the fluff yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 So awesome! Also, amazing picture champy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yja2VmZOfdA#t=63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Hi everyone. I am thinking about chasing this weekend in/near the Tug. I know conditions aren't ideal for a chase, but we have been getting screwed down here, I need to see some snow, and this is a weekend I can actually get away. Can you be kind enough to please answer a question? Between synoptic, upslope, LES, do you think any areas will get 8-12"+ between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon? That is kind of my threshold. Even if light snow, continuous snow and 8"+ is probably enough for me to chase. Also how is PD weekend looking at this point? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Hi everyone. I am thinking about chasing this weekend in/near the Tug. I know conditions aren't ideal for a chase, but we have been getting screwed down here, I need to see some snow, and this is a weekend I can actually get away. Can you be kind enough to please answer a question? Between synoptic, upslope, LES, do you think any areas will get 8-12"+ between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon? That is kind of my threshold. Even if light snow, continuous snow and 8"+ is probably enough for me to chase. Also how is PD weekend looking at this point? Thanks! Hey Matt. Probably our better chance of snows come later Sun....and still, there is some uncertainty with the exact location of the baroclinicity "zone" that these shortwaves are going to act upon. If you are willing to travel a bit (north or south of the Tug) then a light to moderate snow "viewing" by you is almost a certainty, during the timeframe you are here. LES potential will be more of an "enhancement" as surface winds will be from the ENE-N throughout the event. Next week (later) and beyond look better for LES off Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Hey Matt. Probably our better chance of snows come later Sun....and still, there is some uncertainty with the exact location of the baroclinicity "zone" that these shortwaves are going to act upon. If you are willing to travel a bit (north or south of the Tug) then a light to moderate snow "viewing" by you is almost a certainty, during the timeframe you are here. LES potential will be more of an "enhancement" as surface winds will be from the ENE-N throughout the event. Next week (later) and beyond look better for LES off Ontario. Yeah, if I had to choose between this weekend and next weekend to chase, I'd definitely wait. The LES set-up for next weekend looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 BUF NWS says giddy up. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLYFLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THENORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP ARELATIVELY STRONG JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MODELS CONSENSUSKEEPS THE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECASTAREA...WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC / OVERRUNNING ASCENT ON THE POLEWARDSIDE OF THE FRONT...RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SETUP WILLALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE JETWILL ACT TO FOCUS TIMES OF INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES...LIKELYSATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING ACROSS THESOUTHERN TIER...TAPERING OFF TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY INSNOWFALL AMOUNTS INHERENT WITH WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT SETS UP. IFFARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY NOT SEEMUCH SNOWFALL...BUT FARTHER SOUTH MAY GIVE LESS SNOW TO THE NORTHERNTIER AS THEY WOULD BE TOO FAR INTO THE COLD AIR. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTSWILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THE CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW WILL ADD UP OVERTHE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHESSATURDAY...A COUPLE INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND A COUPLE INCHES SUNDAY.BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GFS/EC ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENTABOUT A STRONGER WAVE THAT COULD BECOME CUTOFF JUST WEST OF THEFORECAST AREA...AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA. THEFORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO PRODUCE MUCHSTRONGER QG FORCING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THESURFACE LOW DEEPENS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COULD PICK UP 4 TO7 INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AMOUNTSLARGELY HINGE ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW HOLDING COURSE...ANDWILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES ONCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FORNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IN THE HWO.WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD ADD UP TO AFOOT OR MORE FOR MANY LOCATIONS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THATTHIS SNOWFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A THREE DAY PERIOD. THEPROLONGED LIGHT SNOWFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY NOT CAUSE MUCHIMPACT...AS SNOW REMOVAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH THESNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD WHICH BEARS WATCHING REMAINS SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE SYSTEM COME TOGETHER AS MODELSARE SUGGESTING...THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A TOUGH ONE.&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID WEEK SHOULD BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SNOW AS THEBAROCLINIC ZONE BREAKS DOWN BEHIND THE MONDAY WEATHER SYSTEM. THEEXCEPTION WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE COLDTEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOCONTINUE.BY LATE WEEK...MODEL CONESUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENTTHAT THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES WITHCONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. IN FACT...OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWELL SUPPORTED BY THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT BY NEXT FRIDAY...A LARGEAMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULDALLOW A DEEP TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS STANDARDIZEDANOMALIES SHOW A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL RIDGESTRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADAAT 192 HOURS OUT! THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE NORTHEAST CONUS TOARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING. THESEIMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO WELL BELOW NORMALTEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW CHANCES AREHARDER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WITHSUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKEONTARIO ARE LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 BY LATE WEEK...MODEL CONESUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. IN FACT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT BY NEXT FRIDAY...A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOW A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA AT 192 HOURS OUT! THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE NORTHEAST CONUS TO ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING. THESE IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW CHANCES ARE HARDER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE LIKELY. CONTINUE. This cold is getting ridicolous wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This cold is getting ridicolous wow It's looking like it could turn mighty cold between the 15-20th. JB is even mentioning February 1934. He's not saying it will be surpassed or even equaled but that we might end up with one of the coldest Februaries since then. Will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I really hope it's not that cold on the 20th-22nd. That is my ski trip. Hoping for 25-32 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Looks good. The Sunday-Monday timeframe is the one to watch with the low going south of us and possibly forming another off the coast. That's where we have the chance to get the most snow. The overunning precip before looks north of Buffalo and light amounts 2-4" or so. Also, not to much of a chance of anything but freezing precip unless south of the NY/PA border as surface temps never make it above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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