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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Amazing that you've gotten 170" of snow this season, yet there's only 20" or so on the ground. Especially considering how cold it's been for the past month.

 

Not really. I had 120" in Nov/Early December and it melted in the super thaw. So only 50" or so since then, and there was another mini thaw which really destroyed snow pack. The entire snovember snowpack was obliterated with temps in the upper 60s and sun. Not to mention both of the late Dec/early Jan LES events we had were very high ratio and compacted. 1:25 ratios.

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FWIW, I added up my CoCoRaHS data thusfar...76" total for season, very evenly distributed. 23" Nov, 19" Dec, 22" Jan and the 12" Feb so far. I average a bit more than KSYR, around 135" / year since i've lived here, which is a decade now. I shouldn't complain, living in SE CT, those were very typical seasonal averages/totals...

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FWIW, I added up my CoCoRaHS data thusfar...76" total for season, very evenly distributed. 23" Nov, 19" Dec, 22" Jan and the 12" Feb so far. I average a bit more than KSYR, around 135" / year since i've lived here, which is a decade now. I shouldn't complain, living in SE CT, those were very typical seasonal averages/totals...

 

Just north of Syracuse right? Good spot to be for sure. We average 100-120" here. These two years are anomalies. The two previous years I lived in Orchard Park and those were the years we got like 50" and 70" snowfall totals. Was horrid!

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Nothing new to report on tomorrow's two snow events but the GFS and GGEM both went crazy tonight in the 4-6 day range. GFS went back to its northerly solution for the storm on the 8th with 6-10 across the region, but then created a crazy strung out system with a ton of overrunning snow before it finally crawled east out to sea. Then the GGEM came out with a very similar solution. Combined accumulations from the 8th-10th were 1-2 feet for most on both models. Tonight's Euro will be interesting.

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1.5" overnight. Airport got 2.6" nice!

 

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
1 SSW FRANKLINVILLE 1.0 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
8 SSE AUBURN 2.3 600 AM 2/04 COCORAHS

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
4 SSW RIPLEY 2.0 600 AM 2/04 COCORAHS
4 ENE JAMESTOWN 1.0 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
1 WNW FREDONIA 0.7 530 AM 2/04 COCORAHS

...ERIE COUNTY...
3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 2.6 700 AM 2/04 COCORAHS
BUFFALO-NIAGARA INTL 2.6 655 AM 2/04 NWS OFFICE
2 SSW BLASDELL 1.5 700 AM 2/04 COCORAHS
1 NW KENMORE 1.5 643 AM 2/04 COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...
HIGHMARKET 1.0 350 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 0.5 500 AM 2/04 COCORAHS

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
1 NE LOCKPORT 1.8 700 AM 2/04 COCORAHS
NIAGARA FALLS AIRPOR 1.3 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
FULTON 1.7 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
FULTON LOCK O3 1.1 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
3 NE BENNETTS BRIDGE 1.0 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
2 SSE PALERMO 0.9 600 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER

...WAYNE COUNTY...
1 E NEWARK 2.0 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER

...WYOMING COUNTY...
6 SW WARSAW 0.7 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
3 W WYOMING 0.6 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER
3 N SILVER SPRINGS 0.5 700 AM 2/04 COOP OBSERVER

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Here's the weird thing about this past storm.

 

I've been living here for a little over 11 years now. The drifts produced by this storm in my driveway (which faces NNW) seemed larger and deeper than any other storm we've had in that time. I would have guessed at least 12-18" fell just based on what I had to clear there.

 

However...in the expansive flat region behind the house (we have 8 acres so there is plenty of obstacle-free space), the average snow depth only increased from 10" to 16-18" during the storm. Add on the 2" that fell before I made the first measurement and that leads to a storm total of 8-10", which is in line with ROC.

 

Snowfall intensity and flake size never appeared to be very great (I was up to check a couple of times during the night). So I don't know.

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Same with the drifts in front of my house with Sun/Mon storm. The usual W-SW are shielded, the NE to Nish winds made it the toughest 10" or so we've had to deal with.

 

Meanwhile, I think this 2-3 inch shot tonight is busting for the Metro.

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Looks good here. Already a few inches of new snow. This weekend into early next week still looks good for quite a few people including yourself Devin.

yeah with the long duration overrunning event then possible coastal at the beginning of the week it could be pretty epic! Was in the farthest NW part of Rhode Island today (Burrillville) and it was pretty wild. About double the pack that I have here. Prob about 30-35" on the ground there which was pretty epic. There were dump trucks hauling snow all over and people on roofs all over the place. Reminded me of when I was in Buffalo for the November event! That part of the state is vastly different from coastal Rhode Island where I live. Reminds me of the Boston/Colden area of the south towns. Highest elevations in the state found there too. Around 800ft.
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yeah with the long duration overrunning event then possible coastal at the beginning of the week it could be pretty epic! Was in the farthest NW part of Rhode Island today (Burrillville) and it was pretty wild. About double the pack that I have here. Prob about 30-35" on the ground there which was pretty epic. There were dump trucks hauling snow all over and people on roofs all over the place. Reminded me of when I was in Buffalo for the November event! That part of the state is vastly different from coastal Rhode Island where I live. Reminds me of the Boston/Colden area of the south towns. Highest elevations in the state found there too. Around 800ft.

 

Yeah definitely a good season for those around Boston. One of the best in history for sure, especially if the models are correct about these next two weeks. Could see some 40"+ depths which is absurd for places that average a little over that amount in a year. Did you take any pictures, would love to see them. Any good places to ski/board there?

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bust high or low? The webcams look pretty snowy around Buffalo.

Was looking low, but that lake enhanced (I think) burst the last hour made this a solid event. Patience, I do not have. The models did seem to have the main band more robust and north, though.

 

And this weekend is interesting, if nothing else. GEFS ensembles are all over the place yet again. 12z run even had a few giving us a good shot of rain.

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We've gotten 1.5" in a little under 3 hours here. The snowgrowth is actually more impressive right now that at any point during the Sunday-Monday storm.

 

As a bonus while we wait for the 0z models, here are the snow totals from the 12z Euro ensembles. For them to be so on board is extremely encouraging.

 

87vEmVa.png

 

Looks great. Most of the models agree with that scenario. We are getting close to heavy snow right now here. Dendrite size has increased dramatically.

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0z GFS holds serve with 12-16". Very good agreement on all the models and we're only 3 days out.

 

It also has another storm diving down along the arctic front next Wednesday with 6-10". Interesting.

 

The CMC jumped north, shifting a 2'+ jackpot to the Syracuse area with major mixing issues across the southern tier and Finger Lakes. Hopefully it's just the warm/amped bias manifesting itself.

 

N4Ayr83.png

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