Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

[steffen]

Close to 2" here as the snow is winding down now. Sure looks like winter out there

[AppsRunner]

Had roughly 3/4-1" on the ground this morning before I walked to class. As we were walking snow picked up in intensity and even saw a nice flash of lightning and crack of thunder. Some nice heavy snow for a while but it looks like the band finally shifted all the way south for today. Hopefully we can manage a good synoptic+LES event this weekend/next week. 

[WNYLakeEffect]

10" fell in Lakewood over the past day; about 3.5" yesterday and 6.5" last night, which is certainly more than expected. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

Looking good at Holiday Valley: http://www.holidayvalley.com/photos-and-videos?type=webcams#.VGY_55UtAiQ

[Leelee]

Lots of sun in West Seneca today

 

At least the latest NAM shows LES veering south to give us something later Sunday, although doesn't look too impressive

[Revracer800]

I'm backkkk lol.

Picked up our first snowfall of the season overnight here in southern Oswego county.

Got maybe 2" but still nice to see. I had to take my new snowmobile out for some laps around the yard haha.

[crownweather]

Good morning everyone,

Been having fun looking at the forecast guidance for the Buffalo area and Erie County (what will likely be my home in less than one year) over the last few days as well as looking at real time radar loops.  I do have a couple of questions, however:  

First question is how well does the Canadian model, especially the RGEM model handle lake effect?  For the area that I live in right now (northern part of Maine near the New Brunswick border), it does fairly well with snow events up to 48 hours out and not too bad with other events further out in time (when using the GGEM).    Obviously as you get even closer in (day of the event), the HRRR and RAP model should be looked at closely which forecasts out 15-18 hours out in time.  Just been trying to get a handle on which models do better with lake effects historically.  

Second question is:  Is there a locator table for bands that come off of Lake Erie to be used for forecasting around the Buffalo/Erie County area?  Niziol's 1987 Lake Effect forecasting paper had a great one for Lake Ontario, but I can't seem to find one for Erie.  Based on what I have been reading, looking at radar loops as well as looking at forecast guidance, it seems as when the 850 wind direction is:
 

270 degrees - Angola, Gowanda, Springville and North Boston?

260 degrees - Hamburg and East Aurora?  
255 degrees - Orchard Park & Lackawanna
250 degrees - Downtown Buffalo to the Airport?  
240-245 degrees - Kenmore to Tonawanda? 
230 degrees - Niagara? 

Are these estimates correct or is there actual "guidance" out there that give a better idea of what areas are impacted off of Lake Erie based on the 850 wind direction. 

[ayuud11]

Good morning everyone,

Been having fun looking at the forecast guidance for the Buffalo area and Erie County (what will likely be my home in less than one year) over the last few days as well as looking at real time radar loops.  I do have a couple of questions, however:  

First question is how well does the Canadian model, especially the RGEM model handle lake effect?  For the area that I live in right now (northern part of Maine near the New Brunswick border), it does fairly well with snow events up to 48 hours out and not too bad with other events further out in time (when using the GGEM).    Obviously as you get even closer in (day of the event), the HRRR and RAP model should be looked at closely which forecasts out 15-18 hours out in time.  Just been trying to get a handle on which models do better with lake effects historically.  

Second question is:  Is there a locator table for bands that come off of Lake Erie to be used for forecasting around the Buffalo/Erie County area?  Niziol's 1987 Lake Effect forecasting paper had a great one for Lake Ontario, but I can't seem to find one for Erie.  Based on what I have been reading, looking at radar loops as well as looking at forecast guidance, it seems as when the 850 wind direction is:

 

270 degrees - Angola, Gowanda, Springville and North Boston?

260 degrees - Hamburg and East Aurora?  

255 degrees - Orchard Park & Lackawanna

250 degrees - Downtown Buffalo to the Airport?  

240-245 degrees - Kenmore to Tonawanda? 

230 degrees - Niagara? 

Are these estimates correct or is there actual "guidance" out there that give a better idea of what areas are impacted off of Lake Erie based on the 850 wind direction. 

Yes those are about right however i noticed in the past when we had a 255 wind vector direction that some burbs east of buffalo got into the action as well.

[champy]

Looks like December in CNY

[AppsRunner]

Looks like I may have a shot at a 6-12 hour window of WNW flow with a possible Huron connection. Tug hill will be the place to be but I still should have some fun

[BuffaloWeather]

Good morning everyone,

Been having fun looking at the forecast guidance for the Buffalo area and Erie County (what will likely be my home in less than one year) over the last few days as well as looking at real time radar loops.  I do have a couple of questions, however:  

First question is how well does the Canadian model, especially the RGEM model handle lake effect?  For the area that I live in right now (northern part of Maine near the New Brunswick border), it does fairly well with snow events up to 48 hours out and not too bad with other events further out in time (when using the GGEM).    Obviously as you get even closer in (day of the event), the HRRR and RAP model should be looked at closely which forecasts out 15-18 hours out in time.  Just been trying to get a handle on which models do better with lake effects historically.  

Second question is:  Is there a locator table for bands that come off of Lake Erie to be used for forecasting around the Buffalo/Erie County area?  Niziol's 1987 Lake Effect forecasting paper had a great one for Lake Ontario, but I can't seem to find one for Erie.  Based on what I have been reading, looking at radar loops as well as looking at forecast guidance, it seems as when the 850 wind direction is:

 

270 degrees - Angola, Gowanda, Springville and North Boston?

260 degrees - Hamburg and East Aurora?  

255 degrees - Orchard Park & Lackawanna

250 degrees - Downtown Buffalo to the Airport?  

240-245 degrees - Kenmore to Tonawanda? 

230 degrees - Niagara? 

Are these estimates correct or is there actual "guidance" out there that give a better idea of what areas are impacted off of Lake Erie based on the 850 wind direction. 

 

The RGEM is a good long term model for lake effect as it is higher res than the Euro/GFS. But all 3 are good in addition to ensembles in predicting LES long term. You can get a general idea if LES is going to occur but placement & intensity is tough to forecast outside of a few days. WRF and the NAM as well as the HRRR and RAP are good at the short term with LES.

 

Those wind directions are nearly spot on as well. As you already stated, it is basically a template for wind directions. Sometimes a 255 wind favors my location better than a 260 and it really depends on the width of the band/intensity/etc....

[BuffaloWeather]

That's the same AFD as yesterday afternoon, i guess they never updated it?

 

Didn't realize. My bad.

 

Light snow all day here, not much accumulating as temps are above freezing. (Maybe 1/2 inch) Snow is picking up in intensity last 15 mins or so.

 

[ayuud11]

Wow, incredible. Just got back from the gym and its been snowing moderately for the last 1-2 hours here.

Yea only couple of flurries here in the city but things should change soon based on the radar.

[BuffaloWeather]

Yea only couple of flurries here in the city but things should change soon based on the radar.

 

1.4 inches here, about 3 in Eden.

[dendrite]

I'm temporarily closing this thread.

 

The new thread for this LES event is here:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-historic-lake-effect-snowstorm/

[WintersGrasp]

Sorry this is a bit off-topic and unrelated directly to the current storm, but I wanted to get opinions from people in the area focused on lake effect and knowledgeable in those areas. For the future, I was thinking of what would be the best area to get a place someone in western NY (off of Erie or Ontario). I know that areas around Montague, NY and northern Redfield average the most snow year to year. However, many of those areas are literally wilderness and not that great for a family (at least to best of my knowledge) due to lack of many of the things that have become "necessities" in our everyday lives.

So.....All in all, what would be the absolute snowiest place off of Erie OR Ontario that has stores nearby, reliable internet, and a nice community with a population more than 25 ? Lol

[jamesnichols89]

Another major lake effect snow event is possible again next Wednesday through Saturday of Thanksgiving week.  This time colder 850mb temps with southwesterly cyclonic flow could allow metro BUF to get in more of the action than the southern suburbs got this week.  Still a situation influx.

[BuffaloWeather]

Sorry this is a bit off-topic and unrelated directly to the current storm, but I wanted to get opinions from people in the area focused on lake effect and knowledgeable in those areas. For the future, I was thinking of what would be the best area to get a place someone in western NY (off of Erie or Ontario). I know that areas around Montague, NY and northern Redfield average the most snow year to year. However, many of those areas are literally wilderness and not that great for a family (at least to best of my knowledge) due to lack of many of the things that have become "necessities" in our everyday lives.

So.....All in all, what would be the absolute snowiest place off of Erie OR Ontario that has stores nearby, reliable internet, and a nice community with a population more than 25 ? Lol

 

Boston New York is 20 minutes from downtown Buffalo and averages 200 inches a year. They have some good elevation too. Boston New York is around 3 miles southeast of Hamburg and averages 60-80 more inches a year.

 

Not sure about around the Tug, most of that area is remote aside from around Suny Oswego.

[WNash]

Sorry this is a bit off-topic and unrelated directly to the current storm, but I wanted to get opinions from people in the area focused on lake effect and knowledgeable in those areas. For the future, I was thinking of what would be the best area to get a place someone in western NY (off of Erie or Ontario). I know that areas around Montague, NY and northern Redfield average the most snow year to year. However, many of those areas are literally wilderness and not that great for a family (at least to best of my knowledge) due to lack of many of the things that have become "necessities" in our everyday lives.

So.....All in all, what would be the absolute snowiest place off of Erie OR Ontario that has stores nearby, reliable internet, and a nice community with a population more than 25 ? Lol

 

Yeah, I'd go with those SE Erie County spots: Boston, Colden, Holland, Springville. East Aurora is a lovely town only 20 minutes from Buffalo. Towns further south (Ellicottville, for instance) have a similar amount of snow but far fewer amenities, and a lot longer drive to Buffalo.

 

Watertown is another option, but it's a bit of a small town. Syracuse typically gets more snow than Rochester or Buffalo, with an LES season that keeps going all winter with NW flow off Ontario, but they also are more susceptible to losing the snowpack because of warmer temps at a lower altitude. The Tug would be amazing if it weren't for the fact that drives to the nearest decent sized city (Syracuse) takes an hour and a half when the weather is nice.

 

You're best off in the Boston Hills near Buffalo, I would think, though it does get frustrating when the lake freezes and you can't beg for a flurry on a west wind.

[champy]

Yeah, I'd go with those SE Erie County spots: Boston, Colden, Holland, Springville. East Aurora is a lovely town only 20 minutes from Buffalo. Towns further south (Ellicottville, for instance) have a similar amount of snow but far fewer amenities, and a lot longer drive to Buffalo.

 

Watertown is another option, but it's a bit of a small town. Syracuse typically gets more snow than Rochester or Buffalo, with an LES season that keeps going all winter with NW flow off Ontario, but they also are more susceptible to losing the snowpack because of warmer temps at a lower altitude. The Tug would be amazing if it weren't for the fact that drives to the nearest decent sized city (Syracuse) takes an hour and a half when the weather is nice.

 

You're best off in the Boston Hills near Buffalo, I would think, though it does get frustrating when the lake freezes and you can't beg for a flurry on a west wind.

Oswego and Fulton downwind of Lake O is another decent option - and good fishing year round.

[champy]

NWS BGM:

00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK...YET HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST STABLE RUN-TO-RUN...AND IT IMPACTS A FAIR CHUNK OF
OUR AREA WITHIN ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IT FEATURES A SURFACE
LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY...WHICH RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BETTER PHASING OCCURS /COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS/ BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. 00Z GFS IS FASTER AND
WEAKER...BARELY SKIMMING BY...WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS ALSO
WEAKER AND EVEN FARTHER OUT TO SEA /BUT CLOSER TO OUR REGION THAN
IT HAS BEEN/. HOWEVER...GFS- CANADIAN HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT RUN-
TO- RUN. 18Z GFS FOR EXAMPLE WAS ACTUALLY DEEPER AND IMPACTING
MORE OF OUR AREA...BEFORE JOGGING EAST AGAIN WITH 00Z RUN. BOTH
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. ONE POINT OF AGREEMENT IN ALL MODELS...IS THAT IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES US...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY /IF NOT ALL/ SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

00Z WPC GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-81. WHILE NOT USING IT VERBATIM...I HAVE ADJUSTED
TOWARDS ITS DIRECTION...RESPECTING STABILITY OF ECMWF AND THE
TREND OF GFS-CANADIAN /TO VARYING DEGREES/ TO ALSO BRING SYSTEM
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THUS PROSPECTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GOING
UP FOR WED-WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS. ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

no flood potential thread ?

 

my hunch is most of it gets sponged up anyway....even with temps nearing 60. 

[phoenixny]

Anybody have access to Euro? New England forum says huge far interior hit. Thinking this run is good for CNY.

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah, I'd go with those SE Erie County spots: Boston, Colden, Holland, Springville. East Aurora is a lovely town only 20 minutes from Buffalo. Towns further south (Ellicottville, for instance) have a similar amount of snow but far fewer amenities, and a lot longer drive to Buffalo.

 

Watertown is another option, but it's a bit of a small town. Syracuse typically gets more snow than Rochester or Buffalo, with an LES season that keeps going all winter with NW flow off Ontario, but they also are more susceptible to losing the snowpack because of warmer temps at a lower altitude. The Tug would be amazing if it weren't for the fact that drives to the nearest decent sized city (Syracuse) takes an hour and a half when the weather is nice.

 

You're best off in the Boston Hills near Buffalo, I would think, though it does get frustrating when the lake freezes and you can't beg for a flurry on a west wind.

 

WNash covered it quite well here. I think my favorite spot would be North Boston on the ridge. We have some friends up there where at times it would be raining on 391(town) and you go up to their house on the ridge and there is 6+ inches of snow in just minutes. They must average 150-200+ inches a year over at that location. It is also just 5 minutes to the Boston/Hamburg exit on the 219 which is just 15-20 minute drive to Downtown Buffalo. That IMO is the best location that is the closest to the city with all the amenities you need within 5 minutes in the town of North Boston. Just make sure you have 4 wheel drive and some good snow tires because that ridge is steep, depending on what street you live on.

 

In other news, I've never been so happy for this thaw. The snow piles were so tall and wide that it is very dangerous to drive around here still. I could barely back up out of my driveway onto oncoming traffic. There is going to be quite a few accidents due to these snow piles and not being able to see around corners while turning. I'm hoping this thaw shrinks them by half so we can have some visibility while driving.

[BuffaloWeather]

Anybody have access to Euro? New England forum says huge far interior hit. Thinking this run is good for CNY.

 

Latest run brings some decent measurable snow to central/eastern NY. Looks like Advisory event on latest run for that region.

[BuffaloWeather]

no flood potential thread ?

 

my hunch is most of it gets sponged up anyway....even with temps nearing 60. 

 

There really is never a flood threat here aside from Ice Jam flooding in the March timeframe. Unless the creek has an ice Jam, which didn't happy because it wasn't cold enough for long enough, than the threat for flooding is very low. However, the wind threat looks legitimate, along with the saturated ground. High wind warnings are in effect.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM ESTTUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...GENESEE...MONROE...WYOMING AND  NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD BRING DOWN SOME TREES  AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. DUE TO THE  RECENT MELTING OF THE PAST WEEKS HEAVY SNOW...AN UNFROZEN...  SATURATED GROUND WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR SOME TREES TO COME  DOWN...ESPECIALLY SHALLOW ROOTED PINES. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO  MAKE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. IN  ADDITION...  HOLIDAY DECORATIONS COULD BE DAMAGED AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR  ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS COULD BE BLOWN AWAY.  POWER OUTAGES COULD ALSO EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THOSE  WITH FLOODED BASEMENTS AS SUMP PUMPS WOULD NOT WORK WITHOUT AN  EMERGENCY...GENERATOR POWER SUPPLY.

[WNash]

I spent all Saturday digging out my in-laws in West Seneca. Incredible, really, how deep the snow was, and how heavy. We finally got in a bobcat to move the bulk of the snow in the driveway, but the operator of the bobcat told us that the snow was so heavy, a lot of equipment had problems with the hydraulics.

[Syrmax]

Anybody have access to Euro? New England forum says huge far interior hit. Thinking this run is good for CNY.

Hope so, we've had a couple inches here so far, scraped together, but overall just glad we are not those poor bastards near Buffalo, with a big slushy mess on their hands now. Thinking Wed Storm is pretty much a yawner for CNY but plenty of time for modelology to jerk people around.

[beavis1729]

WNash covered it quite well here. I think my favorite spot would be North Boston on the ridge. We have some friends up there where at times it would be raining on 391(town) and you go up to their house on the ridge and there is 6+ inches of snow in just minutes. They must average 150-200+ inches a year over at that location. It is also just 5 minutes to the Boston/Hamburg exit on the 219 which is just 15-20 minute drive to Downtown Buffalo. That IMO is the best location that is the closest to the city with all the amenities you need within 5 minutes in the town of North Boston. Just make sure you have 4 wheel drive and some good snow tires because that ridge is steep, depending on what street you live on.

In other news, I've never been so happy for this thaw. The snow piles were so tall and wide that it is very dangerous to drive around here still. I could barely back up out of my driveway onto oncoming traffic. There is going to be quite a few accidents due to these snow piles and not being able to see around corners while turning. I'm hoping this thaw shrinks them by half so we can have some visibility while driving.

Kudos - I could never have such a positive attitude about a thaw. I would lose it if all of that snow vanished in 2 days. The snowbelts of NW lower MI are another example. Several feet of snow in nov (in some cases record monthly amounts) and a monthly temp departure of -7 or so...yet all of the snow disappears in 2 days. Mother Nature can be very cruel.

[BuffaloWeather]

Kudos - I could never have such a positive attitude about a thaw. I would lose it if all of that snow vanished in 2 days. The snowbelts of NW lower MI are another example. Several feet of snow in nov (in some cases record monthly amounts) and a monthly temp departure of -7 or so...yet all of the snow disappears in 2 days. Mother Nature can be very cruel.

 

Having snow on the ground has never been a big deal to me at all. I snowboard/ski at Holiday Valley in Ellicottville and they rarely lose their base at all form Late Nov.-April. I'm just a big fan of large snowstorms/Lake effect with insane snowfall rates/thunder snow. Snowpack is cool, but seeing snow fall is always my favorite part of a storm. Hence all the videos/pictures of me out in it.