LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Any concerns of "convection" robbing that I pointed out yesterday/this morning are gone. NWS current forecasts are in good shape, imo. As noted several days ago, these type systems almost always are modeled too far south 2-3 days out....not sure why, but this case was no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Snowgrowth has been poor so far, but we weren't supposed to be getting into the good stuff until after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I see KBGM has adjusted their snowfall map to a general 10-14" for NY zones. We'll see if that works for the So. Tier. IMO they are still too high in PA,mouth that seems to be a bias they have. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I see KBGM has adjusted their snowfall map to a general 10-14" for NY zones. We'll see if that works for the So. Tier. IMO they are still too high in PA,mouth that seems to be a bias they have. I could be wrong. I doubt it works for the So. Tier as they are definitely too high IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Warm air punching into the Western 2/3rd of PA should translate Northeastward but I don't think this change over will last to long in any one place as Temps behind the front CRASH so flash freezes throughout the Mid-Atlantic and NYC look like a good bet. Horrible commute shaping up for them down state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Snow crystals have been really small for the past several hours but radar now showing heavy returns on our doorstep. I'd say we've gotten about 3" of snow since this morning (well, since last night, I don't know how much fell before I got up today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's too cold to go out and measure but I'm eyeballing 3-4" outside, if this keeps up we could get a foot by dawn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It's too cold to go out and measure but I'm eyeballing 3-4" outside, if this keeps up we could get a foot by dawn.. Yep, 4" is a good estimate for here so far. Really impressive out right now. Visibility is under 1/4 mile w/out the wind, so easily at 1"/hr rates. Flake size still isn't the best, but it's getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Horrible drive from Amherst to Hamburg just now. Radar looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not sure she was ever progged to close off at H7 so soon over OH!! Stacked from the surface ion up to H7! 925MB 850MB and 700 No 500 though, lol, but thats stacked enough for me!! She is looking real nice right about now. I havent been this excited since the Valentine's Day System. I don't know if that was 2010 or 11 or 12 because as each year passes a part of my memory is lost,lol. Obviously short term, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not sure she was ever progged to close off at H7 so soon over OH!! Stacked from the surface ion up to H7! 925MB 850MB and 700 No 500 though, lol, but thats stacked enough for me!! She is looking real nice right about now. I havent been this excited since the Valentine's Day System. I don't know if that was 2010 or 11 or 12 because as each year passes a part of my memory is lost,lol. Obviously short term, lol. Love the analysis, always nice to get! Are you on the Tug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Few videos of my drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 And she's still leaning Pos, Just imagine if she was leaning Neg!! Now that would be one for the history books as this one most likely will be as its affecting so many people across so many states! Way bigger impact felt from Linus, LOL Horrible TWC, than from JUNO!! Why did TWC start naming friggen snow storms? Its so stupid IMO! Sorry, tangent, back to Linus, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 And she's still leaning Pos, Just imagine if she was leaning Neg!! Now that would be one for the history books as this one most likely will be as its affecting so many people across so many states! Way bigger impact felt from Linus, LOL Horrible TWC, than from JUNO!! Why did TWC start naming friggen snow storms? Its so stupid IMO! Sorry, tangent, back to Linus, lol! I kind of like the names. It's easier to remember the storms. The Mass. forum section talks about Nemo quite often. Instead of the snowstorm of Feb. 2012 or whatever. It makes it much more easier to recall historic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Noticeable increase in flake size in the last 30-40 minutes. Really looking good out there. Up to about 2" here (since 4pm) 5 miles north of Canandaigua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Im really starting to get excited now after looking at some Obs that are moving our way! What are our peak winds goiong to be when the meat and potatoes cross the area/ Anybody take a gander? I will, lol. KFZY Meteogram Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Some of the members are in the 20 range!! Whats up with the Euro lately,lol, its off its rocker but this system does have the juice to do it if there ever was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 10 meter gusts to 33 knots at the end of Charlotte Pier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NY...NRN PA EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...A 1000 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SWRN OH WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL OH AND CNTRL PA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF A 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM ERN OH SWD ACROSS WV. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD A SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS ALREADY LOCATED ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS SETTING UP FROM WRN AND SRN NEW YORK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Love the analysis, always nice to get! Are you on the Tug? I'm in Pennellville about 20 miles due North of Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm in Pennellville about 20 miles due North of Syracuse. Wow that's a great spot for some insane totals. Must have had quite a few 200" years there. Getting some real nice rates right now here. Going to measure at in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not sure she was ever progged to close off at H7 so soon over OH!! Stacked from the surface ion up to H7! 925MB 850MB and 700 No 500 though, lol, but thats stacked enough for me!! She is looking real nice right about now. I havent been this excited since the Valentine's Day System. I don't know if that was 2010 or 11 or 12 because as each year passes a part of my memory is lost,lol. Obviously short term, lol. I'm gonna watch that 850 Low. the hvst should follow that track! hvy stuff has had some trouble getting up to Rochester, but finally here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Warm air punching into the Western 2/3rd of PA should translate Northeastward but I don't think this change over will last to long in any one place as Temps behind the front CRASH so flash freezes throughout the Mid-Atlantic and NYC look like a good bet. Horrible commute shaping up for them down state. They have bad commutes on a clear summer morning. So tired of their hysterical whining. Or at least the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Just got back from work. Looking at all the data. Looks good. Best dynamics might be from I90 south. But this is early. I gotta look at short term modelling of the 850 and 700 Low. Any input. My guess : Buf-11", Roc-11", Syr-13", Finger Lakes area- 16". Lake enhancement will be the wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 And she's still leaning Pos, Just imagine if she was leaning Neg!! Now that would be one for the history books as this one most likely will be as its affecting so many people across so many states! Way bigger impact felt from Linus, LOL Horrible TWC, than from JUNO!! Why did TWC start naming friggen snow storms? Its so stupid IMO! Sorry, tangent, back to Linus, lol! If this storm had a negative tilt, it would be a lakes cutter and we would be wet..given the same setup. I don't pay attention to the names TWC places on storms. It's too embarassing to contemplate playing that moronic game. It's like putting a big "Kick Me, I'm a Doofus" sign on your own back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Wow that's a great spot for some insane totals. Must have had quite a few 200" years there. Getting some real nice rates right now here. Going to measure at in a little bit. The last few have been plentiful for sure thats why when one of these years come around its real hard to take but its seems as though we can add up real quick around here if we get into a pattern IE. like we are now, so lets see how things stack up down the stretch which I think is going to last well into April!! I see ugliness heading straight for KBUF from the SW. The dreaded dry slotting from the H7. Lets hope you guys out there can get past that! It might in fact get into the KBUF area but soon after there is a wicked Def Band setting up across the MW moving Eastward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm not too worried about that dryslot for Buf or Roc. Maybe the southern tier. If you look close, the radars are filling in over ohio. Our best dynamics are just starting. We will see what Southern Mich saw over the evening and south ontario saw over the late nite. Not worried about dry slot. Dynamics look great right now. If only Mother Nature would cooperate. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 4.5" as of 1 am. Good night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Low is 994 mb centered near Mansfield Ohio. Freezing rain from Cleveland to Du Bois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Low is tracking as expected. Maybe even a tad north. Amazing that 3 days ago they showed hvy snow across northern VA.! But I've seen this many times. With split flow, these Ohio River Lows almost always track north, day after day. Hope this one doesn't stall too long in WPA or EOhio. Rochester needs it to move towards Scranton to give us the North flow for super enhancement from Ontario. As does anyone from Buf to Syracuse. Everything on track for now. Still looks like heaviest is just along and south of I90. So this might be a problem if it persists. As i expected, the dry slot that appeared over CLE and Detroit earlier is filling in. The latest storm intensity is around 997. Very good for an Ohio valley roller! I'd like to see it at around 995 by Pittsburgh and I saw the ARW has it at 988 over boston sometime tomorrow afternoon. This is a perfect track for all of WNY. Sorry I freaked out for a minute. I always do at the start of any storm. I HAVE the sickness bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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