BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 where do you guys go chasing? I've only chased locally within a few hours from here. But southern Indiana/Illinois/Ohio is usually a good spot depending on the set-up. Always a dream of mine to see a tornado live close up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Also, I bet DT busts way low across north central NY and VT.. That's a Horrible Map and Im not saying this cause its in my BY but its not even logical what this person they call DT is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow rate has picked up quite a bit over the past half hour or so. Visibility is down a fair amount. Lookin' good so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's a Horrible Map and Im not saying this cause its in my BY but its not even logical what this person they call DT is showing. He needs to update his "last call" and make a "last last call" map. Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The precip shield is massive as I am trying to figure out the paltry amounts the latest briefing out of KBGM has? It just doesn't make sense. 6-8" for KSYR, come on are they serious? Whats up with the collaboration between KBUF and KBGM cause there need to be one because KBUF has 10-14 while 6-8" from KBGM...... DT like, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The precip shield is massive as I am trying to figure out the paltry amounts the latest briefing out of KBGM has? It just doesn't make sense. 6-8" for KSYR, come on are they serious? Whats up with the collaboration between KBUF and KBGM cause there need to be one because KBUF has 10-14 while 6-8" from KBGM...... DT like, lol! Yes, BGM is way too conservative for its northern areas. I have no clue what they're seeing. Anyway, roads and sidewalks here are now coated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The precip shield is massive as I am trying to figure out the paltry amounts the latest briefing out of KBGM has? It just doesn't make sense. 6-8" for KSYR, come on are they serious? Whats up with the collaboration between KBUF and KBGM cause there need to be one because KBUF has 10-14 while 6-8" from KBGM...... DT like, lol! Maybe downsloping as some models suggest for CNY??? I have a question for you or whomever: I am adding up the QPF on each 3 hour panel(850 mslp) and it does not add up when I check total precip. The NAM has us in .5 to .75(I realize on edge of .75 to 1.00) but when I add up the other I get close to an inch. This is even doing the low range on the precip. Probably nitpicking just curious. This is a massive storm just not super strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just read a post from another forum and an greaqt anolog to this particulas storm system was mentionede and I went back to check the set-up and it looks almost identical! Take a look and then check to see what areas got what as the amounts. Amounts ramped up toward S-CNY and points N&W as the typical change over occurred in the big cities but now before a healthy 5-7" fell across the area! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2003.html December 13-14-15 is before during and after! Its not identical as analogs aren't supposed to, be but their there representations do show the similarities between the two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KBGM's Mets are not conservative their just champs at adjusting upwards instead of downwards, lol. They say, its better to adjust upwards instead of downwards as it shows at least you hit the low end but was a bit too conservative on totals which is OK to the public but unacceptable to US weenies as we like to see massive snow maps like WB's colorful depiction, lol. KBUF, they too are grossly underestimating the Northern extent of this shield and the Meso Bands that are gonna make it up to Governour are gonna smoke the totals they have for that area. Its a nowcast situation so start the measuring you guys out West! BTW, if snow is falling anywhere out there yet. whats the Growth like of the dendrites falling ? Hows the riming look as the dendrites are descending through th BL? Are they coalescing into giant Moth Balls, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElmiraNYWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I've only chased locally within a few hours from here. But southern Indiana/Illinois/Ohio is usually a good spot depending on the set-up. Always a dream of mine to see a tornado live close up. yeah I'd love to go storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 BTW, if snow is falling anywhere out there yet. whats the Growth like of the dendrites falling ? Hows the riming look as the dendrites are descending through th BL? Are they coalescing into giant Moth Balls, lol?? I was out a while ago and can say that the snowflake size is a mixture of very small stuff (probably the larger scale precip component) and some larger (but not huge) flakes, probably a lingering lake effect component. All day we had light to moderate lake flakes which were decent size. It seems the recent uptick in precip rate and downtick in visibility is due to the addition of the smaller crystals to what was already falling. Nothing like giant mothballs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was out a while ago and can say that the snowflake size is a mixture of very small stuff (probably the larger scale precip component) and some larger (but not huge) flakes, probably a lingering lake effect component. All day we had light to moderate lake flakes which were decent size. It seems the recent uptick in precip rate and downtick in visibility is due to the addition of the smaller crystals to what was already falling. Nothing like giant mothballs! Thanks coh, as I was just wondering how the snowflake process (Cloud Physics) up above was working today as it looks as optimal as I've seen it (speaking of data), this season so far synoptically! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I agree, it does look good for later this evening/tonight. Sometimes these systems produce nothing but tiny crystals which can be quite frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 According to the new NAM a storm that was once a 994 SLP in WPA has become a 1004 SLP with a negligable transfer of energry which looks incorrect to me from the new 18Z Nam depiction! Also dryslots the whole So.Tier with little wrap around which should cut down on amounts drastically that's why KBGM needs to do some serious updating cause their total map looks horrendous! They have a chance of changing over to plain RN/FZRN in NEPA for a time as well, so I don't know whats up with them!! I'm probably wrong but we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's a map from Matt Lanza, former frequent BB-frequenter, who forecasted for central NY out of WKTV in Utica for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's a map from Matt Lanza, former frequent BB-frequenter, who forecasted for central NY out of WKTV in Utica for a few years. That map looks right on IMO..wherever the banding sets up will cash in big time and that looks to be off to the north. NAM cross-sections reveal the potential for some slantwise convection across north central NY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snowstorm in progress here in the BUF. Flake size and intensity improved markedly in the last hour. Great look outside right now with the extended twilight and moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any thoughts on the unexpected blizzard-ish conditions in Chicago and the storm as it continues to get organized and move eastward? It looks like we may see some of those wind velocities in WNY (especially along the lakeshore) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That map looks right on IMO..wherever the banding sets up will cash in big time and that looks to be off to the north. NAM cross-sections reveal the potential for some slantwise convection across north central NY too. I like it overall. Those far northern new yorkers who were expecting to get hardly anything 24-48 hours ago are in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I like it overall. Those far northern new yorkers who were expecting to get hardly anything 24-48 hours ago are in for a surprise. They sure are, lol, and the southern tire folks who thought they were getting blitzed are also in for a surprise as they wake thinking there'll be a blanket of white, as there will be, but there might be something else falling form the sky instead of SN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The short range models don't have the steady moderate snow starting in CNY until 11 or 12 tonight, but it looks like the main shield is moving in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They sure are, lol, and the southern tire folks who thought they were getting blitzed are also in for a surprise as they wake thinking there'll be a blanket of white, as there will be, but there might be something else falling form the sky instead of SN!! Yup, no kidding! I'm always leery of these type of Ohio Valley storms that keep getting progged farther and farther north as we get closer. I know we all start wishing for a stronger and more wrapped up primary low, but all remember those times when the dry slot ends up 100 miles farther north and it's 33 degrees and drizzling. It's a good thing we have such a deep cold airmass in place, and we're dealing with a fairly progressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any thoughts on the unexpected blizzard-ish conditions in Chicago and the storm as it continues to get organized and move eastward? It looks like we may see some of those wind velocities in WNY (especially along the lakeshore) ... Sfc/low-level gradients are quite a bit stronger there than they will be along the Ontario shore. Would expect 5-10 mph less wind, and they are 'only' sustained 20-25 with gusts 30-35 overall...probably reaching strict blizzard criteria only within a mile or two of the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I like it overall. Those far northern new yorkers who were expecting to get hardly anything 24-48 hours ago are in for a surprise. Do you think they'll upgrade the advisory for ART? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We have about an inch so far and snow is starting to pick up, latest 15Z SREF has about 14" for both BUF/SYR and 17" for ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Do you think they'll upgrade the advisory for ART? Hard to predict what they will do, but I would if I were them. The advisory already has 4-8" with 15-25mph winds and -20 to -25F wind chills in it. Given the unusual cold temps with this type of storm, I would tend to lower the warning criteria to account for impacts. Not to mention that they are looking at more than 4-8 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The snow has begun in Brewerton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Snowing in Ithaca. Not much has fallen so far, though. My guess is that we're still under 2 inches of new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Ripping here nicely now, eyeballing close to 1"/hr. rate. East wind has kicked up quite a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHIELD CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACRS C NY ANDNE PA AS WAA OR ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THEREGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WAS LEADING TO A RIGHTENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION OVER NY AND PA WITH A LEFT EXITREGION MOVING NORTH TWD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERNSTREAM. THE AGEO CIRC THAT RESPONDS TO THIS JET CONFIGURATIONPRESSES THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPES FARTHER SOUTH AS THE LEFT EXITLEADS TO SIGNIFICANT FLOW UP THE ISENTROPES. ADDITIONALLY THEUPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LEADING TO THESE UPPER JETSTRUCTURES WAS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL REACH OH AND THE ERN LAKESBY 12Z AND CNTRL NY BY 18Z AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z. THIS UPRLVL WAVE WILL ALSO BE LIFTING THE ISENTROPES AS THE WAVE MOVESE...LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE LIFTING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER C NY ANDNE PA.MODEL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEENROUGHLY 6Z-9Z AND 12-15Z FROM SW TO NE. BELIEVE UP TO 2 INCHES PERHOUR IS MOST LIKELY ACRS NC NY WHERE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BEHIGHER.BELIEVE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACRS NC NY WHERE 10-14 INCHES WILLLIKELY OCCUR. FARTHER S...ACRS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SCNY/NRN TIER OF ERN PA...LOOKS LIKE 8-12 INCHES. FARTHERS...EXPECT 5 TO 8 INCHES AT BEST. WARMER AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THENRN TIER OF ERN PA AS PER 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS...RGEM AND THE2.5 KM HI RES CANADIAN MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELSBY 12Z TO 15Z MON. I USED ALL THIS NEW GUIDC TO ADJUST THE ZR AND IPFARTHER N INTO THE NRN TIER OF ERN PA MON AM. MORE SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN IN THE AVP AREA TO POCONOS WILL CUT SNOW AMNTS DOWN.FOR NOW HAVE 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH ARND .1 TO .2 INCHES OF ICE This is nice.! Hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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