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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Is this the guy from WxRisk? I follow him on Facebook. Is he even a Met? He doesn't seem to even know how to interpret models correctly. His maps are always horrid.

Yeah he's a met haha, always has been a euro hugger but I'm really not sure what he's looking at for this one.

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Things look good in Ithaca.  A snow shower is trying to make its way into the area now.  We should get 8-12 inches from the storm, assuming a cumulative ratio of 12:1 to 15:1 .  Mixing seems unlikely, even with the temperature spike late in the storm, which will bring us into the upper 20's before the energy transfer is complete.

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I'll throw in my two cents, since I just happen to be back home visiting family near Canandaigua for this one. I have a hard time forecasting more than 10" or so with these sort of front-ended storms, but as noted, the thermal and low-level wind profile should be such that at least some lake enhancement with high ratios should add potential as the relatively weak comma head comes through tomorrow morning.

Thinking we see a gradual ramp-up in intensity this evening, really peaking between 11pm and 3am as the mid-level frontogenetic forcing and isentriopic upglide peaks (in a pretty deep layer, but particularly around or above 700mb). Not confident about snow growth lining up perfectly with the best forcing, but think we should be dealing with 12-15:1 ratios with fairly deep good snow growth layer lining up with at least decent forcing. With the northern trend in guidance continuing, and even the weaker NAM showing a closed 700mb low tracking from DTW toward Lake Ontario, sleet will be a good bet near the NY/PA border, and I think even around Jamestown to Elmira. Even as far north as Dansville and Penn Yan may see a brief period, before we have a lull in activity with some poor ratio snow showers sometime between 4am and 7am. The 9am to 12pm period should see a ramp up in intensity, along with falling temps and increasing northerly winds. 15-18:1 ratios will be possible here, in the wake of the 850mb low, with forcing in lower level deformation. Higher amounts will be very localized with banding and orientation of lake enhancement.

With all that said, I think 8-12" is a good general call for most of western NY, but would not be surprised to see less than that along portions of the southern tier, and localized higher amounts from the northern finger lakes to Orleans/Monroe/Wayne County. 10-14" would be my call for ROC. Would not be shocked if someone sees 18", but 10-15 miles away sees 'only' 10".

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Lots of available moisture with this one. I like the axis of heaviest snow along the NYS thruway with the heaviest totals around Rochester down to Seneca/Penn Yan and back up to Lake Ontario to the west of Oswego. That triangle there looks like a great area of frontogenesis and maximum time in the overall QPF shield. Looking like a classic WNY snowstorm with West/East progression. A good ole synoptic snow storm. Take pictures y'all and enjoy the snow :)

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Lots of available moisture with this one. I like the axis of heaviest snow along the NYS thruway with the heaviest totals around Rochester down to Seneca/Penn Yan and back up to Lake Ontario to the west of Oswego. That triangle there looks like a great area of frontogenesis and maximum time in the overall QPF shield. Looking like a classic WNY snowstorm with West/East progression. A good ole synoptic snow storm. Take pictures y'all and enjoy the snow :)

 

Thanks Milly. You know this will be a given. Will be driving home from Amherst tonight after the Superbowl. Going to be taking some video and pictures.

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