ElmiraNYWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's snowing very lightly in Elmira. What do you think it will be like in the Elmira Area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Things are looking better and better for the high peaks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Steady fall of decent size lake flakes here in western Monroe. Hopefully a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6Z WRF models from Buffalo downslope most of Onondaga County to hell and drylot for a few hours tomorrow morning after thump. 6 to 12 is a good call for the area. Just psyched for some snow. Enjoy the storm everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll make my final calls after the Euro, but there looks to be very good model agreement in general. The main split is between those with heavier precip amount and those that are slightly drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Things are looking better and better for the high peaks! I bet there's gonna be nice banding up into northern NY on the northern side of the precip shield along the mid-level frontogenesis maximum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Also, I bet DT busts way low across north central NY and VT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just dug a pathway for the deer as I have been feeding them lately. We have a 11-12" snow depth(Concrete). The board is also ready to start measuring! Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Also, I bet DT busts way low across north central NY and VT.. Is this the guy from WxRisk? I follow him on Facebook. Is he even a Met? He doesn't seem to even know how to interpret models correctly. His maps are always horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Is this the guy from WxRisk? I follow him on Facebook. Is he even a Met? He doesn't seem to even know how to interpret models correctly. His maps are always horrid. Yeah he's a met haha, always has been a euro hugger but I'm really not sure what he's looking at for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So, he's got as much or more snow (8") in NYC as along the southern shore of Lake Ontario. While I'll admit I'm skeptical about reaching the 15" mark here, I'll be very surprised if NYC winds up even close to what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I like this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anyone have Euro snowmaps for 12Z? New England thread has it but it's cut off near Albany. Looks like the 12+ would continue west through all of CNY and Western parts of state. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Final calls: Ithaca: 8-12 Binghamton: 8-12 Elmira: 9-13 Geneva: 10-14 Syracuse: 9-13 Rochester: 11-15 Buffalo: 10-14 These reflect the fact that QPF will be slightly higher in the western parts of the region and the potential for brief dryslotting south of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anyone have Euro snowmaps for 12Z? New England thread has it but it's cut off near Albany. Looks like the 12+ would continue west through all of CNY and Western parts of state. Thanks. Not sure of snowfall maps, but solid hit across the entire state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Things look good in Ithaca. A snow shower is trying to make its way into the area now. We should get 8-12 inches from the storm, assuming a cumulative ratio of 12:1 to 15:1 . Mixing seems unlikely, even with the temperature spike late in the storm, which will bring us into the upper 20's before the energy transfer is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll throw in my two cents, since I just happen to be back home visiting family near Canandaigua for this one. I have a hard time forecasting more than 10" or so with these sort of front-ended storms, but as noted, the thermal and low-level wind profile should be such that at least some lake enhancement with high ratios should add potential as the relatively weak comma head comes through tomorrow morning. Thinking we see a gradual ramp-up in intensity this evening, really peaking between 11pm and 3am as the mid-level frontogenetic forcing and isentriopic upglide peaks (in a pretty deep layer, but particularly around or above 700mb). Not confident about snow growth lining up perfectly with the best forcing, but think we should be dealing with 12-15:1 ratios with fairly deep good snow growth layer lining up with at least decent forcing. With the northern trend in guidance continuing, and even the weaker NAM showing a closed 700mb low tracking from DTW toward Lake Ontario, sleet will be a good bet near the NY/PA border, and I think even around Jamestown to Elmira. Even as far north as Dansville and Penn Yan may see a brief period, before we have a lull in activity with some poor ratio snow showers sometime between 4am and 7am. The 9am to 12pm period should see a ramp up in intensity, along with falling temps and increasing northerly winds. 15-18:1 ratios will be possible here, in the wake of the 850mb low, with forcing in lower level deformation. Higher amounts will be very localized with banding and orientation of lake enhancement. With all that said, I think 8-12" is a good general call for most of western NY, but would not be surprised to see less than that along portions of the southern tier, and localized higher amounts from the northern finger lakes to Orleans/Monroe/Wayne County. 10-14" would be my call for ROC. Would not be shocked if someone sees 18", but 10-15 miles away sees 'only' 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 12z Euro, for whomever is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 My aggressive calls look good for buf and roch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Light snow has started here under the leading WAA band. Humidity is up to 71%, so it seems as though the virga monster won't be eating up our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 These storms always have a max from Buffalo to Syracuse along the NWS Thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look how far that snowshield goes. from WNY to Oklahoma City. If we don't dryslot, going to be some high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Light snow has started here under the leading WAA band. Humidity is up to 71%, so it seems as though the virga monster won't be eating up our storm. I was worried about that as well. But light snow has started here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice lolli over Buffalo. With more to come after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lots of available moisture with this one. I like the axis of heaviest snow along the NYS thruway with the heaviest totals around Rochester down to Seneca/Penn Yan and back up to Lake Ontario to the west of Oswego. That triangle there looks like a great area of frontogenesis and maximum time in the overall QPF shield. Looking like a classic WNY snowstorm with West/East progression. A good ole synoptic snow storm. Take pictures y'all and enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Lots of available moisture with this one. I like the axis of heaviest snow along the NYS thruway with the heaviest totals around Rochester down to Seneca/Penn Yan and back up to Lake Ontario to the west of Oswego. That triangle there looks like a great area of frontogenesis and maximum time in the overall QPF shield. Looking like a classic WNY snowstorm with West/East progression. A good ole synoptic snow storm. Take pictures y'all and enjoy the snow Thanks Milly. You know this will be a given. Will be driving home from Amherst tonight after the Superbowl. Going to be taking some video and pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Look how far that snowshield goes. from WNY to Oklahoma City. If we don't dryslot, going to be some high totals. Kansas* not Oklahoma. Got my states mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hey Mills you want to go Tornado chasing with me this spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hey Mills you want to go Tornado chasing with me this spring?Absolutely. Check your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElmiraNYWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Absolutely. Check your PM where do you guys go chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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