Superstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's timing as I will be driving up tomorrow from Lancaster, PA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS remains more amped than the euro (oddly enough), question is who wins this time. The north trend seems to have stopped with the NAM/CMC, but the euro is ticking north every run and the ukmet/GFS/GEFS are well north. IF this sfc low ends up crossing along or just south of LI, the ukmet will be the only model to have nailed it from 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 15z SREFs are wetter and north. 12" mean in Binghamton, 15 in Ithaca and Elmira, and 18 in BUF, ROC, and SYR. Only 3 of the 22 members are below 10" for ITH, and every member is at least 10 in the I-90 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Warnings hoisted by BGM for just about everyone. 2 products issued by NWS for: Ithaca NY More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on email Share on print Share on gmail Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY302 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015NYZ015-022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-012015-/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1900Z//O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0002.150201T2100Z-150202T2100Z/YATES-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENN YAN...CORNING...HORNELL...WATKINS GLEN...ELMIRA...ITHACA...CORTLAND...NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON...WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE...MONTROSE302 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO4 PM EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS OF NEW YORK...THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...AND THE TWIN TIERS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* TIMING...STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.* TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES...THEN FALLING TO 5 TO 15 ABOVE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS AND WALKWAYS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL [email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 15z SREFs are wetter and north. 12" mean in Binghamton, 15 in Ithaca and Elmira, and 18 in BUF, ROC, and SYR. Only 3 of the 22 members are below 10" for ITH, and every member is at least 10 in the I-90 corridor. 18z NAM came north in line with the GFS, I'm not liking the 700 mb dry slot trying to punch from BGM to ALB though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM came north in line with the GFS, I'm not liking the 700 mb dry slot trying to punch from BGM to ALB though. Yeah, 1 more shift north and I get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF is just ridiculous, it has close to 20" near ROC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF is just ridiculous, it has close to 20" near ROC!! Really weird since most of the guidance has the heaviest stuff 100 miles south. Maybe really tuning into the lake enhancement possibilities. Either way I'll make my predictions tonight for Buf, Roc, Syracuse after tonights model runs. I'll tell you one thing, they are going to be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Really weird since most of the guidance has the heaviest stuff 100 miles south. Maybe really tuning into the lake enhancement possibilities. Either way I'll make my predictions tonight for Buf, Roc, Syracuse after tonights model runs. I'll tell you one thing, they are going to be high. It's annoying that Im driving to the 'dacks for a week of snowboarding in effort to get better conditions; and now WNY is going to get crushed. Murphy's law I guess. I do love to see this storm trending north though. Whiteface might catch a nice 4-6 if things keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's annoying that Im driving to the 'dacks for a week of snowboarding in effort to get better conditions; and now WNY is going to get crushed. Murphy's law I guess. I do love to see this storm trending north though. Whiteface might catch a nice 4-6 if things keep up. You're going to be boarding in pure fluff at the Dacks. I dream of that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not sure how much lake enhancement there will be from Ontario. It's starting to freeze over too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 That chart is wrong, I don't see much ice on Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, Ontario is open for business. I always wonder exactly how much the lake enhances the snow in these types of events. Really impossible to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I am NOT trying to rain on anyone's parade....but a few/many years ago, we had a similar setup (can't remember the date) and it was looking like a similar snow total for the same regions per the models right up until the event....verification showed that a line of convection south of the system, robbed the northern portion (snow region) of a ton of moisture...and the precip field literally rotten over us...giving most about 1/3 of what was expected....so keep that in mind....we DON'T want to see a major convective outbreak down south, that runs out ahead of the precip to the north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I am NOT trying to rain on anyone's parade....but a few/many years ago, we had a similar setup (can't remember the date) and it was looking like a similar snow total for the same regions per the models right up until the event....verification showed that a line of convection south of the system, robbed the northern portion (snow region) of a ton of moisture...and the precip field literally rotten over us...giving most about 1/3 of what was expected....so keep that in mind....we DON'T want to see a major convective outbreak down south, that runs out ahead of the precip to the north.... Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I simply dont understand why NWS BUF hasnt dropped warnings for the south Lake Ontario counties. Perhaps gun shy after last weeks debacle in NYC.? I would of done it by now. NAM and GFS has 12" upto the lake. actually more snow north vs: south. I bet they are holding close to in house WRF which is till showing 'only' 6" at lake shore. Plus euro was a bit anemic north of the thruway. wait, did I just answer my own question? lol. I'd still waive the flag. I like the chances of enhancement west of syracuse. King, I get your worries. But looking at my model recognition, this storm is a high confidence one for WNY. I'm not as nervous as i typically am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 not model recognition but set-up recognition, historical performance of storms that track over Pittsburgh. WNY always overperforms. and with qpf already at just under 1 inch. I'm bullish on this set-up, for KROC and KBUF. A bit less for Syr..... I've seen you guys robbed by these before too. Its the enhancement on the NE wind that helps wayne, monroe and orleans counties. also northern ontario and livingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I simply dont understand why NWS BUF hasnt dropped warnings for the south Lake Ontario counties. Perhaps gun shy after last weeks debacle in NYC.? I would of done it by now. NAM and GFS has 12" upto the lake. actually more snow north vs: south. I bet they are holding close to in house WRF which is till showing 'only' 6" at lake shore. Plus euro was a bit anemic north of the thruway. wait, did I just answer my own question? lol. I'd still waive the flag. I like the chances of enhancement west of syracuse. King, I get your worries. But looking at my model recognition, this storm is a high confidence one for WNY. I'm not as nervous as i typically am. Yeah, I'm not too nervous, especially with the current radar depiction....but things can go wrong quickly, if the trailing cf starts firing to strongly once it gets to the GOM....but I'm pretty confident in a really good snow for our area!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the only downside of having storms track north is that all the forums dry-up. All the peeps from the huge population centers give up and turn off. So please folks, lets keep the dialogue going! I love when the forums are on fire with tons of new maps and info coming in every minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's a little strange. Even if you believe ROC gets 3-4 inches less than BUF due to the greater distance from the low track, we probably make up for it with 2-4" of lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I would agree. KROC will get lots of help from Lake Ontario. The Weather Channel (not that I put much faith in them) have all of WNY in the 12-18" color. Well, except Niagara Falls which is at 6-12. The RGEM and latest GFS ticked a bit south (by maybe 15-30 miles) which is of little consequence. Will have to watch future models, as northern cutoff is going to be sharp. The least I see anyone getting is 6". I feel real confident with this set up. No worries. We all will see a good solid snow storm. Not blockbuster. but solid- at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 KBUF gets a decent shot with storms like this with lake enhancement in deformation bands in the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 0Z guidance all goes north and places KBUF/KROC in the middle of the heaviest stuff. I'll go Buffalo: 14.2" Rochester: 15.4" Syracuse: 12.2" Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That GFS is awesome. We will see if the new GFS model does us any good in WNY. It sure screwed NYC last week. Not as bad as the Euro screwed NYC. I'll be very curious to see what the 0z Euro shows for WNY. But it is now a nowcast and short term model game. I'll continue to watch the WRF, NMM, ARW etc. This is pretty much a guaranteed big snow for WNY. I was surprised that Roc mets were a hesitant to post snow maps. In my opinion, it doesn't get easier than this as far as snow goes. It aint a coastal. It aint Lake Effect. This is a shoe in for 6-12" plus. So post the dang map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NY should do fine with this...maybe the No. Tier of PA also although looks like a dry slot might rob No. PA and So. Tier of NY, which wouldn't be unexpected if the slp and 700mb lows track over PA, as presently modeled. General 6-10" looks pretty good along I-90, some spots, probably hills, up to 12". NWS ripping and reading NWP output, hence the higher projected totals for So. Tier NY and No. Tier PA. Won't work out that way, never does, but whatever. Not a particularly dynamic storm, more of a general push of precip. SLP doesn't really fire up till east of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm actually in awe that we're getting a decent Synoptic event, thing is, it hasn't started yet and there are still some questions that need To be answered. Im actually surprised KBUF pulled the plug for Oswego Ct. already but I guess we'll see! This year is especially true as we haven't seen nothing impressive except for maybe Novembers event. To be below 50" in so. Oswego ct the end of January is certainly not the norm. Feb should make up for the abysmal Winter so far, but we'll once again see! Start OBS tomorrow afternoon or evening in WNY. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm actually in awe that we're getting a decent Synoptic event, thing is, it hasn't started yet and there are still some questions that need To be answered. Im actually surprised KBUF pulled the plug for Oswego Ct. already but I guess we'll see! This year is especially true as we haven't seen nothing impressive except for maybe Novembers event. To be below 50" in so. Oswego ct the end of January is certainly not the norm. Feb should make up for the abysmal Winter so far, but we'll once again see! Start OBS tomorrow afternoon or evening in WNY. Good luck all! You're right...synoptic snow has been hard to come by since early December and back in November. Even LES has been paltry. Since mid December its been a pretty weak period for snow. January temps were about what you'd expect, solid winter conditions just not much deep snow. Since January is over, it gets an F for a grade. Wasted pattern and generally boring. Only the fake Blizzard was entertaining to follow, other than that, pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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