Gravity Wave Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS jumped north when it had previously been in the southern camp. 10-16 for pretty much everyone. One trend on every model today has been towards a stronger, better organized storm, so hopefully we won't experience the usual moth-eaten precip shield falling apart as it crosses the Appalachians. At this point I'd say the southern tier is a near-lock for a widespread 8-12+ event. The Finger Lakes and I-90 corridor are still up in the air to an extent, but I'm feeling pretty bullish about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS jumped north when it had previously been in the southern camp. 10-16 for pretty much everyone. One trend on every model today has been towards a stronger, better organized storm, so hopefully we won't experience the usual moth-eaten precip shield falling apart as it crosses the Appalachians. At this point I'd say the southern tier is a near-lock for a widespread 8-12+ event. The Finger Lakes and I-90 corridor are still up in the air to an extent, but I'm feeling pretty bullish about this storm. Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see WSW's up later today for much of the region.. looks like a model consensus is developing. Places just north of the 850 low are gonna make out real nice in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes, I can see all four clearly - each are different shots of you streaking naked down Camp Rd. in 5"/hour snow. Thank God for the low visibility... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 GEFS following the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is a massive hit for the entire forum. Low is near pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElmiraNYWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This storm is looking good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Every 0z model is north and wet so far. The only one that still needs to fall in line is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Every 0z model is north and wet so far. The only one that still needs to fall in line is the Euro. And to think you were punting this one. I'm going to go on the fence that this goes a tad bit north than being predicted as these systems always go farther northwest than predicted. Usually this puts WNY in the dry slot, but I think we're far enough north to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElmiraNYWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why is the NWS in Binghamton not issuing watches? Every 0z model is north and wet so far. The only one that still needs to fall in line is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And to think you were punting this one. I'm going to go on the fence that this goes a tad bit north than being predicted as these systems always go farther northwest than predicted. Usually this puts WNY in the dry slot, but I think we're far enough north to avoid that. You are right on the money with this! Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated. Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario) I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border. Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are right on the money with this! Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated. Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario) I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border. Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS.... Sounds about right with the current models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are right on the money with this! Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated. Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario) I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border. Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS.... I always add another 50-75 miles north than what the models predict with storms like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF Plumes converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 LEK what are the chances for Lake enhancement once the comma head of the system is east of here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nearly a perfect low pressure positioning for heavy snow here on the Euro Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 IMO we are in a perfect spot to get some nice totals out of this one, i'd go with 12-15" for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are right on the money with this! Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated. Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario) I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border. Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS.... Agree with this...the southern solutions are disappearing. Other than in ensemble members. I like our chances with this one and your snow totals look good. NWS should just rip n read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 LEK what are the chances for Lake enhancement once the comma head of the system is east of here? As long as we have ambient moisture at lower/mid levels we certainly can maximize some of the potential lake enhancement....the cold air draining into this system from the north is dry and pretty shallow...so equilibrium levels will be quite low (from a pure LES standpoint)...that said, I'd add another 2-4" a bit aways from L. Ontario (into the hills)....after storm passes, there will be a short period of LES S. of Ontario...but we will be snowing from levels under a couple thousand feet!!! (ie radars won't hardly even see any of it!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM ticked south a bit....I find it to be good news for the Thruway corridor in this setup!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM looks great for WNY...CNY in this setup, needs to proceed with caution wrt potential downsloping concerns...esp. with hints of damning down the HRV...dry air injected into system before going up and over the 'Dacks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting that BUF NWS hasn't bought in, calling for 2-4" along the south shore of Lake Ontario (10 am discussion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I bet dollars to doughnuts that eventually the entire forecast area will be under a WSW by tomorrow morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 9z SREF's went further north and adding a bit more to qpf for our region...GFS, also seemed to increase qpf....system looked to actually slow down an hour to a few hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I see that they have an average of almost 15" at ROC with a min of 10". Those numbers seem high to me but I've just started looking at the SREF's so I have no idea how they tend to perform for these types of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1238 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 NYZ001-002-010-011-010145- /O.EXB.KBUF.WS.A.0001.150201T1800Z-150202T1800Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA 1238 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...GENESEE...NORTHERN ERIE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 7 INCHES OR MORE. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I bet dollars to doughnuts that eventually the entire forecast area will be under a WSW by tomorrow morning this afternoon .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I bet dollars to doughnuts that eventually the entire forecast area will be under a WSW by tomorrow morning.... Aside from KART everybody else is under a watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Everything looking good right now! Every model is on board and the short range ones are looking particularly juicy. The ARW in particular had Ithaca at .75" of QPF with almost half the storm to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Aside from KART everybody else is under a watch! ....and my current thinking is that ART could be JUST north of the jackpot totals! ART will be included at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 First real shot at a legit synoptic storm for the entire forum. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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