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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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18z GFS jumped north when it had previously been in the southern camp. 10-16 for pretty much everyone. One trend on every model today has been towards a stronger, better organized storm, so hopefully we won't experience the usual moth-eaten precip shield falling apart as it crosses the Appalachians.

 

At this point I'd say the southern tier is a near-lock for a widespread 8-12+ event. The Finger Lakes and I-90 corridor are still up in the air to an extent, but I'm feeling pretty bullish about this storm.

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18z GFS jumped north when it had previously been in the southern camp. 10-16 for pretty much everyone. One trend on every model today has been towards a stronger, better organized storm, so hopefully we won't experience the usual moth-eaten precip shield falling apart as it crosses the Appalachians.

 

At this point I'd say the southern tier is a near-lock for a widespread 8-12+ event. The Finger Lakes and I-90 corridor are still up in the air to an extent, but I'm feeling pretty bullish about this storm.

 

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see WSW's up later today for much of the region.. looks like a model consensus is developing. Places just north of the 850 low are gonna make out real nice in this one.

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Every 0z model is north and wet so far. The only one that still needs to fall in line is the Euro.

 

And to think you were punting this one. I'm going to go on the fence that this goes a tad bit north than being predicted as these systems always go farther northwest than predicted. Usually this puts WNY in the dry slot, but I think we're far enough north to avoid that.

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And to think you were punting this one. I'm going to go on the fence that this goes a tad bit north than being predicted as these systems always go farther northwest than predicted. Usually this puts WNY in the dry slot, but I think we're far enough north to avoid that.

You are right on the money with this!  Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated.  Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario)  I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border.  Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS....

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You are right on the money with this!  Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated.  Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario)  I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border.  Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS....

 

Sounds about right with the current models.

 

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You are right on the money with this!  Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated.  Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario)  I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border.  Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS....

 

I always add another 50-75 miles north than what the models predict with storms like this one. ^_^

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You are right on the money with this!  Since I've been a met (27 years) I have yet to see similar storm tracks NOT modeled far enough northward (re precip, and track) right up until the event.....I worry more about dry slotting off the mountains, and also wasting a lot of moisture on getting the column saturated.  Offsetting those, would be higher ratios, and some lake enhancement/orographic components (esp. for WNY south of Ontario)  I bet the models never catch up to verification wrt the jackpot totals....I'm thinking 25 miles either side of a line from BUF/ROC/SYR down the Mohawk river valley.....vs. the current thinking of a southern tier line to the NY/PA border.  Max. lollies probably 1.5 feet....with most in the 7-14" range....I bet we hear of some sleet mixing in in the S. Tier of NYS....

Agree with this...the southern solutions are disappearing. Other than in ensemble members. I like our chances with this one and your snow totals look good. NWS should just rip n read. ;)

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LEK what are the chances for Lake enhancement once the comma head of the system is east of here?

As long as we have ambient moisture at lower/mid levels we certainly can maximize some of the potential lake enhancement....the cold air draining into this system from the north is dry and pretty shallow...so equilibrium levels will be quite low (from a pure LES standpoint)...that said, I'd add another 2-4" a bit aways from L. Ontario (into the hills)....after storm passes, there will be a short period of LES S. of Ontario...but we will be snowing from levels under a couple thousand feet!!! (ie radars won't hardly even see any of it!!)

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

1238 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

NYZ001-002-010-011-010145-

/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.A.0001.150201T1800Z-150202T1800Z/

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...

BATAVIA

1238 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...GENESEE...NORTHERN ERIE AND ORLEANS

COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY

AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 7 INCHES OR MORE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES CREATING

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

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