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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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CMC has Buffalo temps near 50 by Monday

 

I probably shouldn't follow these models, it's gonna lead to disappointment.

 

Gotta look at the whole picture. Ensembles are the best, not just one operational model. Most of the GEFS had a suppressed look than amped like the GGEM. Will see what the new ones have.

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This Sunday/Monday system is going to be a real nail biter.  0z GFS today was an absolute crush for WNY/CNY, but by the 12z run it doesnt phase at all and the storm is completely suppressed south.  Its going to be a long 12 hours until the next run comes out.  

 

I'm heading up to the Adirondacks snowboarding all next week... I need that snow BOMB!

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I'm coming with you delta. Gem was a nice hit here

 

Come on up Man!  Whiteface and Gore are the main attractions at this time.   I have been a little concerned with the temps over the past few runs (-40 850s!!).  That said, the suppressed solution that lacks snow is much milder and progressive.  So we either get a lot of snow followed by obscenely cold temps, or not much snow but milder temps.  Kind of tough call..

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12z GFS completely tears the system apart with arctic air. We get 2-4" of overrunning snows.

 

The CMC is less amped and transfers to the coast(right over NYC in fact) and spits out well over a foot for most in the region.

 

Edit: And now the Euro is only marginally better than the GFS. Hopefully we can get some trends back in the other direction.

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Not happening this year guys!  Disappointment is all we get here in CNY, lol, absolutely pathetic!

 

Good News-First Event-

 

AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY ON DAY
2...IT BEGINS EVOLVING INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH...WHICH CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THROUGH 30/00Z. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
STARTS TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (WITH A 35
TO 45 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE 290 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE) PUMPS
0.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE AIRMASS. MOISTURE IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PRODUCES A LARGE AREA
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN OH...WESTERN PA AND
NORTHERN WV. BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...LAKE ENHANCED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SHOWED A 6 TO 9
HOUR PERIOD OF CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 775 MB...VERTICAL MOTION IN
THE LOWER LAYERS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKES. THE ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD RESULT IN 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL EAST OF EACH OF THE LAKES.

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12z GFS completely tears the system apart with arctic air. We get 2-4" of overrunning snows.

 

The CMC is less amped and transfers to the coast(right over NYC in fact) and spits out well over a foot for most in the region.

 

Edit: And now the Euro is only marginally better than the GFS. Hopefully we can get some trends back in the other direction.

18Z looks even worse,lol.

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Yep,  If this doesn't come back on 0Z models tonight I think it's safe to say the synoptic snow suck hole covering WNY and CNY continues for the foreseeable future.  At least it would be a merciful miss - nothing worse than tracking for several days and wiffing.  

 

Lots of GEFS with an amped solution but it's becoming a lost cause. Nice view of the lakes today.

 

10930783_922963071047288_759169351639419

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The best stations are the Davis weather stations. Look it up on Amazon. They can be quite pricey but well worth it. Save up and spend $250-$300 on a quality one.

I am looking into them. I'm looking to spend like $300. Where would be the best location for one? on the roof?

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Today marks the 38th anniversary of the blizzard of 77, here is the complete newscast broadcast of the blizzard back in 1/31/77.

 

 

http://weather.buffalonews.com/2015/01/28/blizzard-77-anniversary-jan-28-1977/

Kevin O'Connell's forecast 20 minutes in.....moving around the "H" and "L" on the cartoon weather map to show where High and Low pressure systems are going.  Then the scrolling forecast for cities across the US with disco music in the background.  Classic.  

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It looks like the GFS bumped significantly north with the monday system, wouldn't be surprised to see big changes over the next couple days. The shortwave involved is still out in the gulf of alaska and seems to be the source of ensemble spread as it rides the west coast ridge.

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