ayuud11 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just drove back from ROC and man the 490 was a mess, it looks like they sent all the plows out to NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 1" here today and this evening. Maybe its 1.5"...window dressing. I did see reports of 3-5" south and SW of Syracuse in the hills. Not a bad bonus for them. Looks like we should be able to eke out some snow over the next two weeks. This winter is what it is... Condolences further east, towards Albany. This alleged Blizzard - which is utter rubbish to put these warnings up as they never verify - looks like west of the hudson is going to be in trouble. Particularly NJ, where NWS had outrageous snow totals posted, like 2-4 feet, and now appears, suprise, suprise, to be well less than 1/2 that. Its not over by any means, but the all NWP has trended away from west of the Hudson and now radar/satellite support NYC as being roughly the western edge of significant snow. The Clipper and following storm look really good for this area on the GFS. Will see if the other models follow suite. The GFS actually nailed the Nor'Easter this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Too early for this topic as the storm isn't near done (although some significant trends are in place), and it'll probably pop up somewhere else...but the sense I get from online elsewhere, is that the general public thinks this is already a gigantic bust of a storm. This is the general non weather weenie public. I mean, I can see their point. If NYC/NJ were hyped up for 24-36" of snow and they get say, 6-12" (and NJ is looking like a total bust), NWS is gonna look like jackasses. I felt some of the language used by BOX and NYC was over the top..."crippling" "historic" "dangerous" "life threatening" "flooding"...taken in aggregate, along with insane mass media hype, and questionable road and mass transit closings...one would get the idea that millions were going to die in some sort of apocalyptic nightmare. The storm can't possibly live up to this sort of expectation...so when you throw in a relative bust (again, still early)...its gonna get ugly, mark my words. I won't even get into the fact that Blizzard criteria won't be met (yet again) for large areas under Blizzard Warnings. And then to read some of the NWS AFD's discussing "blizzardy" conditions (because there aren't any blizzard conditions as of this hour), its all just a mockery of a sham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Too early for this topic as the storm isn't near done (although some significant trends are in place), and it'll probably pop up somewhere else...but the sense I get from online elsewhere, is that the general public thinks this is already a gigantic bust of a storm. This is the general non weather weenie public. I mean, I can see their point. If NYC/NJ were hyped up for 24-36" of snow and they get say, 6-12" (and NJ is looking like a total bust), NWS is gonna look like jackasses. I felt some of the language used by BOX and NYC was over the top..."crippling" "historic" "dangerous" "life threatening" "flooding"...taken in aggregate, along with insane mass media hype, and questionable road and mass transit closings...one would get the idea that millions were going to die in some sort of apocalyptic nightmare. The storm can't possibly live up to this sort of expectation...so when you throw in a relative bust (again, still early)...its gonna get ugly, mark my words. I won't even get into the fact that Blizzard criteria won't be met (yet again) for large areas under Blizzard Warnings. And then to read some of the NWS AFD's discussing "blizzardy" conditions (because there aren't any blizzard conditions as of this hour), its all just a mockery of a sham. Aside from eastern New England this should certainly go down as a huge bust/overhype, even in the mind of general public. The NWS fell for the western solutions simply because the euro was so persistent with a quicker capture and the NAM partially agreed. I don't think there was model consensus at any point for a western track. Once again the euro over amplified the upper-levels, as it really seems to have trouble with these negatively tilted, explosive cyclogenesis events and is almost always too far west. The euro ensembles were consistently east of the operational, as was the UKMET, GFS, GGEM etc. but were primarily discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 About 2" here, pretty but the roads are surprisingly quite bad. GFS is near warning level with the Thursday clipper and has been bullish on it for days. Interesting. But, various NWS offices seem to suggest this is a minor, 1-3/2-4, ho-hum clipper, so I don't know. FWIW, the new GFS has been quite accurate so far for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 About 2" here, pretty but the roads are surprisingly quite bad. GFS is near warning level with the Thursday clipper and has been bullish on it for days. Interesting. But, various NWS offices seem to suggest this is a minor, 1-3/2-4, ho-hum clipper, so I don't know. FWIW, the new GFS has been quite accurate so far for here. GFS has some impressive snow amounts for CNY for this coming week, with over a foot between the 2 systems for many places. At least it's something to track, which hasn't been the case up here for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS is more in line with other models, even suggesting a period of rain for Thursday. 1-3" of horrible driving slop ahead, boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Snowing hard here now, picked up a quick inch in the last hour. Oh what could have been....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 12z Euro brings a rapidly deepening low from the lower Mississippi valley up I-81 on Sunday night into Monday. Could this be the inland runner we've been waiting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The band over CNY is producing nicely. About 2.5 inches now. The 0 degree line on that Euro map makes me a little nervous though.......that looks like a wet solution for central/eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm curious if there's any mohawk hudson convergence helping to keep this little band going near ALB. 5" this afternoon with light snow continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 12z Euro brings a rapidly deepening low from the lower Mississippi valley up I-81 on Sunday night into Monday. Could this be the inland runner we've been waiting for? A nice 2-4 inch clipper followed by a potential biggie. It's looking much better but the spread is still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 GEFS are all over the board with that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I gotta agree. I remember I posted something about a boring non-snow pattern on December 21st and got yelled at because "After Dec 24th the pattern was becoming more interesting". Talk about a snoozefest. Wonder if we can continue this and get through the winter under 50" of snow Man I sure hope we do so we can at least head into the record books as a top 5 least snowy winter as there aren't many to choose from looking back, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Monday's clipper looks like another non event here in CNY although hopefully it can result in some Lake snow if we can get a favorable trajectory. I can't beleive NWS puts up Blizzard watches in New England and NYC areas virtually every season. They almost never verify. Even during the big "blizzard" a couple years ago you had to look hard to find a single station that met conditions. It's all ridiculous hype. It sure verified this time and continues to do so, so they were definitely warranted this time around, but I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Euro has a nice phase, the GFS is a semi phase, the GEM is an overrunning event. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not for long. Some good lake effect potential coming up soon. Where? What fantasy land do you live in? Cold and dry is in the picture despite the rubbish the GFS and EURO are throwing at us. The pattern for CNY-WNY has been horrendous and should remain status quo as the atmospheric conditions governing this pattern are not changing AO-NAO-PNA-WPO!! We need the Southern Jet to come into play otherwise its yawn till May as Weak Nino's are notorious for having horribly damp & cold Spring seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Where? What fantasy land do you live in? Cold and dry is in the picture despite the rubbish the GFS and EURO are throwing at us. The pattern for CNY-WNY has been horrendous and should remain status quo as the atmospheric conditions governing this pattern are not changing AO-NAO-PNA-WPO!! We need the Southern Jet to come into play otherwise its yawn till May as Weak Nino's are notorious for having horribly damp & cold Spring seasons. First week of February has a few shots. Nothing extreme, but something. Not sure what model your looking at. But GFS and Euro have a decent clipper coming Thursday and a potential bigger system around the weekend. The Euro would be a big hit in this area if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Didn't realize this was the old EasternUswx until I signed up,lol, and I see that there are still some cats from back in 2010-2012 when I was on here night and day, lol. The most horrendous year to date for me here in Oswego County except for the LES blitz which we got in on for a couple of days but other than the system in Nov it has been uneventful and I doubt it changes as the pattern for the season has been one where every thing that comes at us has some strange way of missing us, lol. When I moved here I realized Syracuse was not a good place synoptically but I said LE would make up for the lack of Coastals that Im so accustomed to!! MAN WAS I WRONG!! I wonder if LE-King is still around? Good to be back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We live in a constant non-favorable synoptic environment, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Didn't realize this was the old EasternUswx until I signed up,lol, and I see that there are still some cats from back in 2010-2012 when I was on here night and day, lol. The most horrendous year to date for me here in Oswego County except for the LES blitz which we got in on for a couple of days but other than the system in Nov it has been uneventful and I doubt it changes as the pattern for the season has been one where every thing that comes at us has some strange way of missing us, lol. When I moved here I realized Syracuse was not a good place synoptically but I said LE would make up for the lack of Coastals that Im so accustomed to!! MAN WAS I WRONG!! I wonder if LE-King is still around? Good to be back! Syracuse is a solid area for Lake effect all season and in a much better position for Nor'Easters. I believe they got 4 feet in the 1993 superstorm. LE King is still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here is the Euro snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How many times have we seen this? I can see it now, transferring its energy to the outer banks and plastering NE once again!! Not in the cards this year unfortunately but apparently the Cold is, because if there's one thing that's been around this year is the COLD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I especially like the fact that its a cold rain for the coastal areas as it is now, lol, but that'll change. Man it used to be, you get into Euro's wheelhouse and its game on. Whatever happened to those days? Anyway, here's hoping for the best. BTW we need moisture for LE and there is none being delivered from our wonderful Cross Polar Flow!! I will say this however, February looks decent for something nice to happen. Thank God Ontario doesn't freeze over or else I'd be really bummed, lol. Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here is the Euro snowfall totals. Yeah bro, and how many times this year have you seen those totals from EURO?? How many times have they verified? Go back and look to see and you will be amazed. If we went by those grafics we'd of been buried from November. One Ensamble run had CNY in the 30"+ range and I LMAO cause it never, and I mean never comes to fruition! Somehow, someway that clipper coming will find a way to bypass us, watch! This model 12hrs before yesterdays Blizzard had 30+ for all of the tristate area- called my brother in Staten Island this morning- 8" lol, Colossal bust for both Globals! The NAM did absolutely horrendous as well so what is there to look at? Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Here is the Euro snowfall totals. That'd be nice. LOL@ the snow hole right by SYR too, but at this point I'd be happy with 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is looking better and better as we approach! Wow, maybe we can actually get a decent synoptic event in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 BUF NWS was pretty much word for word with what I said earlier. Thurs-Fri Clipper: THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY...WITHANOTHER MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHPROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDINGANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUETO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH UPSLOPEFLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MOREWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATIONOF ADDED LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOMEWHAT COOLER SURFACETEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW THE GREATER SNOWAMOUNTS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ALSOTHE TUG HILL REGION. THIS MAY BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGEFOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERETHE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3INCH RANGE...WITH MOST OF THAT COMING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEHIND THESURFACE LOW...WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING TEMPS TO DROP SHARPLY FROMLATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS MAY STILL BE IN THE 20SBEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ANDINTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOWWILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE RESPONSE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITYDEVELOPING...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OFCONNECTIONS TO UPSTREAM LAKES SHOULD KEEP THIS RELATIVELY LIGHT. THENORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR MULTI-BANDS OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF LAKEONTARIO...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY TO BE FOUND FROM THEEASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPEFLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON MAY ALSO PRODUCESOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THESE AREAS MAY SEE ANADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. Sunday-Monday system: THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVERTHE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ANDMONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BYMONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE.THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OFACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OURENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEALOF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACKOF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSEDAND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURSDIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLEUNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOWCONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVEINCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE. Lake effect potential first week of February: BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGIONMONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THEPOTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS ISSUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 3-5 inches on most suites for the clipper for most of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is a fully phased bomb for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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