Syrmax Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yawwwwnnnnnn. When is spring? CNY perspective: January may grade out as an F-, the - cuz of basically a month of an utterly wasted pattern and having to endure subzero mornings with no reward. Other than for the 6 people that live on the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yawwwwnnnnnn. When is spring? CNY perspective: January may grade out as an F-, the - cuz of basically a month of an utterly wasted pattern and having to endure subzero mornings with no reward. Other than for the 6 people that live on the Tug. Spot on. This winter really can't recover to better than a D no matter what else happens. Solid F for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Spot on. This winter really can't recover to better than a D no matter what else happens. Solid F for January. I gotta agree. I remember I posted something about a boring non-snow pattern on December 21st and got yelled at because "After Dec 24th the pattern was becoming more interesting". Talk about a snoozefest. Wonder if we can continue this and get through the winter under 50" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I gotta agree. I remember I posted something about a boring non-snow pattern on December 21st and got yelled at because "After Dec 24th the pattern was becoming more interesting". Talk about a snoozefest. Wonder if we can continue this and get through the winter under 50" of snow Now that would be interesting...a below normal temp winter with below normal snowfall. At this point it looks like that's what we have on our hands. I'm actually interested in seeing how long my 3" "snowpack" can stay intact. Its been a cpl weeks now I think. I remember the pattern change discussions (elsewhere), they are usually a joke with the usual suspects believing what they want to believe. At this point, with the "core" of winter a boring mess, I'd just as soon wrap this one up. Who knew Novemeber would be the most fun part of this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 It really has been quite meh the last two weeks. I'm a fan of snow actually falling in comparison to snow depth. For snow depth enthusiasts we have had 15 inches before the mini thaw and about 8 inches of concrete the last week or so. Very cold dry patterns are the absolute worst time of the year for me. I'd take anything over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think we'll really hate this cold, snowless pattern in a week or two. Yuck. No warmups in sight. I know WNY isn't a good spot for significant synoptic storms, but we usually at least get hit with these clippers. They're dodging us, again and again. Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I guess the flakes outside right now are a gift since I was expecting nothing from this storm. I think based on current radar we will pick up an inch or slightly more this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 It'll be interesting to see how this next storm evolves, there's certainly a lot of sensitivity regarding the amplitude of the west coast ridge. We'll need the ridge to stay amped so the northern stream shortwave can dive and wrap up further west rather than swing wide east. Either way with this type of thermal advection pattern there's gonna be one heck of a trowal on the NW side of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks like maybe 3-6" across the region from the clipper and fringes of the coastal on Monday/Tuesday and another 2-4 from the late week clipper. How exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The freezing drizzle was a bit of a fiasco yesterday. I drove up to Hamilton yesterday with nothing in the forecast but a slight chance of snow in the evening. I came back around 7 with the QEW shut down north of Fort Erie and a very slippery drive on backroads to get to the Peace Bridge border crossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ugh, almost spun out my pickup in the ice last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Snow falling right here in Ithaca currently. I guess some lake effect off Cayuga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Ouch on the trends for upstate ENY today for tomorrow's storm, but we've seen this setup before unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Monday's clipper looks like another non event here in CNY although hopefully it can result in some Lake snow if we can get a favorable trajectory. I can't beleive NWS puts up Blizzard watches in New England and NYC areas virtually every season. They almost never verify. Even during the big "blizzard" a couple years ago you had to look hard to find a single station that met conditions. It's all ridiculous hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro holds serve from last night's run, and if anything it closes off sooner/ sends more precip up this way. The NWS stated feedback issues for some of the other models today, so maybe there's something there. They use that term so much its easy to ignore it sometimes. Ouch on the trends for upstate ENY today for tomorrow's storm, but we've seen this setup before unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah it was extremely icy last night while driving. Everything was covered in a decent layer of ice and then we received a 1/2 inch of snow. Very slippery this morning as well. East coast is getting a classic Nor'Easter this week. Devin is going to be a happy camper in Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 well it appears the cold and dry pattern will stay locked in place for another couple of weeks, if NWP is correct. Been looking for signs of a big Western trough and SE ridge to pop but not yet. Maybe mid Feb we will see the change. Until then, maybe someone can get some lake snow eventually. Other than that, unfortunately not much to discuss for most of this board. Groundhog day. I entered my storm forecast for the web's longest running snowstorm prediction contest: CAR: 8.5 BGR: 13.5 PWM: 14 CON: 8.5 BTV: 3.8 BOS: 10.5 HYA: 8.5 ORH: 13.8 PVD: 9 BDR: 8.5 BDL: 14.5 ALB: 4 BGM: 1 ISP: 9.5 JFK: 7.5 ABE: 3.5 MDT: 2 PHL: 4 ACY: 0.5 EWR: 6.5 BWI: 2 IAD: 1 DCA: 0.5 I may be too high near NYC but OTOH, I feel better with a 6-10" idea for NYC, NJ, LI area vs the stupid amounts being forecasted by NWS down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 well it appears the cold and dry pattern will stay locked in place for another couple of weeks, if NWP is correct. Been looking for signs of a big Western trough and SE ridge to pop but not yet. Maybe mid Feb we will see the change. Until then, maybe someone can get some lake snow eventually. Other than that, unfortunately not much to discuss for most of this board. Groundhog day. I entered my storm forecast for the web's longest running snowstorm prediction contest: CAR: 8.5 BGR: 13.5 PWM: 14 CON: 8.5 BTV: 3.8 BOS: 10.5 HYA: 8.5 ORH: 13.8 PVD: 9 BDR: 8.5 BDL: 14.5 ALB: 4 BGM: 1 ISP: 9.5 JFK: 7.5 ABE: 3.5 MDT: 2 PHL: 4 ACY: 0.5 EWR: 6.5 BWI: 2 IAD: 1 DCA: 0.5 I may be too high near NYC but OTOH, I feel better with a 6-10" idea for NYC, NJ, LI area vs the stupid amounts being forecasted by NWS down there. I wouldn't be surprised if some places under banding in eastern MA push 24" and ALB only gets T-1". Models are trending steadily further east within 48 h.. seems to happen nearly every time. I bet tonights 00z euro finally gets a clue and shifts the precip max 50 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Certainly somewhere between ORH and BOS gets 2' (or a bit more) out of this...maybe in Eastern CT and RI too. I mentioned earlier 12z Euro had us near a foot while latest NAM gives us mostly nothing (especially north of the Mohawk River). Something needs to give, and based on trends of the other guidance, it will probably be the Euro that caves this time. We've seen this setup before in Upstate ENY, but it never stops hurting at least a little bit;) I wouldn't be surprised if some places under banding in eastern MA push 24" and ALB only gets T-1". Models are trending steadily further east within 48 h.. seems to happen nearly every time. I bet tonights 00z euro finally gets a clue and shifts the precip max 50 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just booked my trip for the Riu Palace in Costa Rica in April. A few more weeks of the brutal cold and I'll be counting down the days. I have a ski trip planned for Feb. 20-22nd as well. Pattern looks better for snow over the next few weeks than it has in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Models suggest lots of chances for light accumulating snows the next couple weeks. We'll see. This Thursday event still looks funky to me, and I expect lots of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snowing right here in Ithaca! About .5 inch with small flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro not only holds out this way, but slightly increases precip for the storm...almost gametime and its still Euro vs the world (as far as this area is concerned). It throws back much more precip westward than other models. If the Euro fails, it will be one of its biggest busts in this area I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro not only holds out this way, but slightly increases precip for the storm...almost gametime and its still Euro vs the world (as far as this area is concerned). It throws back much more precip westward than other models. If the Euro fails, it will be one of its biggest busts in this area I can remember. Pulling hard for you guys in ENY. All it takes is a few hours of strong banding to swing through and you're in business for big totals. Some mood flakes here in WNY. Our remaining snow pack in lower elevations is like a 3 inch thick glacier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro not only holds out this way, but slightly increases precip for the storm...almost gametime and its still Euro vs the world (as far as this area is concerned). It throws back much more precip westward than other models. If the Euro fails, it will be one of its biggest busts in this area I can remember. 18z nam is more in line with the euro, but still a huge question mark. Incredibly tough forecast for the ALB area, even 12h out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 18z nam is more in line with the euro, but still a huge question mark. Incredibly tough forecast for the ALB area, even 12h out. I'm really surprised the area from Syracuse to Wellsville to BInghamton are not in a WSW. They have had a stubborn band of orographic lift snow going there for hours. There has to be some 6-10 inch totals already there. Wouldn't be surprised to see some impressive totals there tomorrow morning on Cocarahs reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Local news at 6 out of Syracuse had reports of 3-5" in area's a little south of Syracuse so them totals for sure will be pretty good. Just a little dusting here in my neck of the woods. Bad year to have a new snowmobile sitting in my garage lol. Went snowmobiling last Thursday up on the Tug Hill and many places up there are pretty thin on snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Local news at 6 out of Syracuse had reports of 3-5" in area's a little south of Syracuse so them totals for sure will be pretty good. Just a little dusting here in my neck of the woods. Bad year to have a new snowmobile sitting in my garage lol. Went snowmobiling last Thursday up on the Tug Hill and many places up there are pretty thin on snow also. Not for long. Some good lake effect potential coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Picked up 1.5 inches of snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 1" here today and this evening. Maybe its 1.5"...window dressing. I did see reports of 3-5" south and SW of Syracuse in the hills. Not a bad bonus for them. Looks like we should be able to eke out some snow over the next two weeks. This winter is what it is... Condolences further east, towards Albany. This alleged Blizzard - which is utter rubbish to put these warnings up as they never verify - looks like west of the hudson is going to be in trouble. Particularly NJ, where NWS had outrageous snow totals posted, like 2-4 feet, and now appears, suprise, suprise, to be well less than 1/2 that. Its not over by any means, but the all NWP has trended away from west of the Hudson and now radar/satellite support NYC as being roughly the western edge of significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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