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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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00z GFS looks pretty great for the eastern half of NYS and western VT sunday into monday, too bad its 108 hours out. Its a thread the needle type scenario at H5 with the trough digging and tilting negative just in time to allow the low level frontal boundary to push far enough east.. then the sfc low rides the baroclinic zone. Actually closes off up to H5 as the low deepens over northern new england, definitely trending in the right direction for most everyone in this subforum.

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Rain Sunday for many areas per BGM and BUF discussions. Very bizarre modelology by them. I can see a fizzle/miss with the Sunday system, as it looks like a joke system... but rain...no. Regardless, looks like it will be milder. If any rain did fall, it would pretty much reset our snowcover back to zero.

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Rain Sunday for many areas per BGM and BUF discussions. Very bizarre modelology by them. I can see a fizzle/miss with the Sunday system, as it looks like a joke system... but rain...no. Regardless, looks like it will be milder. If any rain did fall, it would pretty much reset our snowcover back to zero.

Yeah, i don't see how it could rain in this scenario.. models have shifted significantly east and less amped in the last 24 h but some snow isn't out of the question. Something to watch next week would be a more substantial clipper/redeveloper.

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12zGFS offering some hope for the Monday storm for snow for eastern NYS.

Hope you/they can cash in.  It's been a real struggle outside of lake effect areas to get any meaningful snow this winter.  But all it takes is a good couple active weeks to changes things around and still plenty of winter left.  

 

I'm glad this warm-up starting tomorrow is looking really minor.  Snowshoeing and skiing has been great in WNY for the last week and this should only be a small road bump.  

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Hope you/they can cash in.  It's been a real struggle outside of lake effect areas to get any meaningful snow this winter.  But all it takes is a good couple active weeks to changes things around and still plenty of winter left.  

 

I'm glad this warm-up starting tomorrow is looking really minor.  Snowshoeing and skiing has been great in WNY for the last week and this should only be a small road bump.  

 

Pretty impressive clipper train showing up on GFS/EURO. Nothing big, but clippers usually do really well around here. I remember one living in Amherst that dropped 10+ inches when 1-2 were predicted. Nickle + Dime your way to a decent snowfall year. I'm going to need it to get to 200 inches with the lake mainly frozen.

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lol. You have to laugh at the Toronto "snow dome". Pretty much everywhere around the city of Toronto has snow...just not the city itself.

 

Might be that urban affect. I remember in summer being up in Toronto and the city and the temperatures being 10 degrees warmer than places just outside the city. It was noticeable at 2 seperate rest stops. Micro environments can have big effects on snow cover, depending on where abouts you live.

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With temps over 0C for 27 straight hours, a bit of rain, and gusty winds, my prediction is that the KBUF snowfall depth goes from 7 inches this afternoon to 2 tomorrow. I have the same depth and it is a fairly dense, wet pack at this point, so we may be left with something, but I doubt it'll be much.

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Unfortunately persistent cold and dry wins until proven otherwise......

This winter sucks.

Unfortunately persistent cold and dry wins until proven otherwise......

This winter sucks.

Yeah, 6 weeks of winter left, can't grade this thing yet but it won't be a high grade. January has been very blah. February is usually not a decent month anymore. Anyone hanging their hat on Feb is likely kidding Themself. But we'll see.

Some light rain here this afternoon. What a joke. This isn't 2001/02 but it's pretty lame in its own way.

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Hoping the 6" pack around Buffalo can mostly last through the weekend. Clipper potential this week got dull quickly.

Did better than I thought - KBUF shows 5 inches on their daily summary (4:47 PM). We only lost a little bit here as well. Ground still well covered, though it didn't look as healthy in Tonawanda and Amherst this afternoon.

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Long range looks pretty boring. The clipper train looks pathetic compared to what it originally looked like. Hopefully we can scrap together a few marginal events in the coming weeks. Want to make a run towards 200".

 

I would grade this winter a solid C so far, and falling fast towards repeating the semester......

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Sounds awesome. I have to visit some of the ski areas around there. Looks like some good conditions for spots outside the typical areas in the NE.

 

Yeah man. I've skied/boarded at quite a few locations and outside of the Dacks Holiday is my favorite. The plethora of hills and variety of options is unmatched for a ski resort only 40 mins away from my house. I can go from 330-10pm Mon-Weds for $17 a person, literally cannot beat it. It has a peak elevation of 2,323 ft. so not to bad either.

 

716003_trailmap.jpg

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