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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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12z NAM brings the winds Southwest later this afternoon into the evening. Maybe another shot for the Metro.

Nice it looks like KART is about to get smoked from that ontario band!!

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY915 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015NYZ007-008-091545-JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-915 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015...LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVING SOUTH THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY AND INTONORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...* AT 915 AM EST...A LAKE EFFECT BAND WAS PRODUCING PRODUCING  SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE AND  VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND WAS  LOCATED FROM NEAR WATERTOWN TO ANTWERP.  THE BAND WILL CONTINUE  MOVING SOUTH THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN LEWIS  COUNTY BY 1030 AM.  THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN EXITS 43 AND 49.* ADDITIONALLY...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING  AND DRIFTING SNOW.
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watertown ny lake band arrives!

Impressive band hammering the Tug right now:

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

302 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

NYZ006>008-092130-

JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-OSWEGO NY-

302 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE TUG HILL THIS AFTERNOON...

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER

OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR OVER

THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SOME AREAS MAY SEE 10 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF

SNOW BY 6PM. VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...

ADAMS AND ADAMS CENTER...

BARNES CORNERS...

WEST CARTHAGE...

COPENHAGEN...

LOWVILLE...

 

LES Advisory issued for northern Erie tomorrow afternoon.  We'll see what kind of punch the band has as it swings back north.  

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...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF LAKE ERIE...

* AT 737 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF UP

TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM SILVER CREEK AND ANGOLA TO

HAMBURG...EAST AURORA...BENNINGTON...AND WYOMING. THIS BAND OF

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID EVENING.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

911 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

NYZ010-101015-

/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0007.150110T1500Z-150111T0600Z/

/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150110T2100Z/

/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0002.150110T0600Z-150110T1300Z/

NORTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO

911 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT

SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY. THE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. VERY HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT IN A

SMALL SLIVER FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF ORCHARD PARK TO

MARILLA. HEAVY SNOW WILL RETURN ACROSS MORE OF THE SOUTHTOWNS

SATURDAY MORNING WITH A WEAKENING BAND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE

METRO AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS ADVISORY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY

SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE SNOW WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN ORCHARD PARK

TO MARILLA. 4 TO 7 INCHES SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS WITH 2

TO 4 INCHES FROM BUFFALO NORTHWARD.

* SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES

PER HOUR ON SATURDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO TONIGHT. AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT

TIMES SATURDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW.

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Updated LES

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTSATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING BLOWING  AND DRIFTING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 FEET TONIGHT WITH STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3  FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.* SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR.* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO MILE AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL  CREATE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO  VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME  NEARLY IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED  FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. BITTERLY COLD WIND  CHILLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN  TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

928 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

NYZ010-012-019-085-100400-

CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-WYOMING NY-

928 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ERIE...

* AT 922 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4

INCHES PER HOUR...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THIS LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM ANGOLA TO HAMBURG...EAST

AURORA...MARILLA...AND BENNINGTON. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN

NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE

SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND INCLUDE...

NORTH BOSTON...

ORCHARD PARK...

EAST AURORA AND ELMA...

MARILLA...

COWLESVILLE...

BENNINGTON...

TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT OR EVEN IMPOSSIBLE

DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND

DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADWAYS. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED BY HAVING AN EMERGENCY KIT...EXTRA

BLANKETS AND WARM CLOTHING IN THE EVENT THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS

MECHANICAL PROBLEMS OR GETS STUCK. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A FULLY CHARGED

CELL PHONE.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SETTLING
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE 2 TO 3 FEET EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH
4 TO 6 FEET QUITE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 03Z...THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS MANAGED TO EDGE JUST A HAIR
FURTHER NORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES OF AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR REACHING INTO MARILLA
AND PORTIONS OF ELMA. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT BY JUST A FEW MILES WAS
ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY TO COVER THE NORTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF
THE BAND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ELMA/MARILLA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WINDS VEER...WITH THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT ALREADY STARTING TO
BECOME NOTICEABLE IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. WHILE THIS NEW WARNING
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT
THE BUFFALO AREA AND THE REST OF ITS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBURBS
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED UNTIL THE BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING DURING SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS OFF LAKE ERIE
STILL LOOK TO BE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...AS THE STILL-INTENSE BAND WILL
GRADUALLY SLIP BACK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR TO CONTINUE IN THE CORE OF
THE BAND FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND WEAKENS A BIT FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
ALL OF THIS HAS NECESSITATED THE RAISING OF SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 FEET
FALLING WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS BY TOMORROW MORNING.

MEANWHILE OFF OUR OTHER LAKE...AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SINGLE BAND
/ALSO WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR/ CONTINUES
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION...WITH THIS HAVING REORGANIZED AND
SLIPPED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN SINCE EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THIS SAME GENERAL AREA WHILE
PERHAPS SINKING JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET LIKELY WHERE THE LAKE SNOWS
ARE MOST PERSISTENT...LIKELY RAISING EVENTUAL STORM TOTALS TO THE 4
TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS.

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14 inches of snow with round 2 which was mainly from 6-10 pm. Which brings the storm total for this event to 18 inches. Current snow depth is 20-25 inches on average. Lots of blowing and drifting.

 

Enjoy my friend. Wish I was there. I spent several winters in my youth in Western NY. Shuffling between Batavia and Hamburg, as we raced horses out there. This was approx 1973 to 1978.

 

Anyway, back on topic...I am listening to the Thruway State Police online and the Thruway is closed. They didnt take any chances this time! 

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Going to see some really high totals across the Boston Hills/Colden/Eden area tomorrow morning. Also this is a classic Tug Hill event. 4-6 feet around Redfield area. Going to sleep, will post the videos tomorrow.

Congratz! btw Lake erie band is on the move, BUF is saying 2-4" for the city but that band looks healthy so will see.. :snowing:

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