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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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Hey Ayuud check this out. 6-10 inches for Springville. :axe:

This is why you don't hire people without Bachelor degrees in Meteorology to be your head Met. ^_^

10926407_10152960223840359_7974350807260

I really don't know how they get away with these forecasts they issue, all I can say is I'm glad we have Don Paul around this parts man.

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Looking at the latest HRRR sub-hourly radar,it has the band oscillate a lil bit northwards as evident on CLE radar and then really gets cranking as it moves southwards from 5-6:30 in the immediate city area. :snowing: :snowing:

 

 

Yeah, looks like a shortwave is approaching and will give this band a boost before it swings south after the shortwave passes.  Wild few hours in the north towns.  

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Yeah, looks like a shortwave is approaching and will give this band a boost before it swings south after the shortwave passes.  Wild few hours in the north towns.  

How are the roads up there? there is literally one foot drifts on the side street i live over here. :mapsnow:

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Maybe this makes another run at the city tonight?

 

LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THIS HEAVY BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. AS
NOTED...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITHIN THIS SNOWBAND. SNOWFALL RATES 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND BEGINS ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH DURING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR THROUGH THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...AND BATAVIA AREA.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND VEERING WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ACCELERATE THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND SOUTHWARD MID
MORNING...REACHING FAR SOUTHERN ERIE AND THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE SNOWFALL RATES...AND
WITH A BIT OF WIND SHEAR THE SNOWBAND MAY BE BRIEFLY DISORGANIZED
FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS SEVERAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...EXPECT THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND TO OSCILLATE A BIT. A
NORTHWARD TRACK MAY TAKE THIS SNOWBAND BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHTOWNS
OF BUFFALO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOR WHICH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED.

BY TONIGHT ANOTHER UPTICK IN SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE
LAKE...INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS STILL OVER 10K FEET...AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF THIS LAKE ERIE
SNOWBAND...A GOOD WESTERLY PUSH WILL BRING DECENT SNOWS AS FAR
INLAND AS LIVINGSTON COUNTY OVERNIGHT
...FOR WHICH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. THIS BAND OF SNOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY
SETTLE SOUTHWARD LATER OVERNIGHT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL NORTHWARD PUSH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

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