BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 70%+ chance of 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Over 2 inches of QPF near my place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 70%+ chance of 12+ We're at 30%-40% on the WPC point map, so in the gradient on the image file map you posted. Better than being in 0%, right? I'm not going to be pessimistic about this, despite how this winter has played out for North Buffalo so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 We're at 30%-40% on the WPC point map, so in the gradient on the image file map you posted. Better than being in 0%, right? I'm not going to be pessimistic about this, despite how this winter has played out for North Buffalo so far. The NWS just sent me this as the top analog for this system. Looks like we all get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 The top 5 analogs 12-11-2009 12-23-2000 1-21-2008 1-03-1995 1-19-1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 We're at 30%-40% on the WPC point map, so in the gradient on the image file map you posted. Better than being in 0%, right? I'm not going to be pessimistic about this, despite how this winter has played out for North Buffalo so far. FWIW the 18z models quickly veer the winds after 12z Friday and keep it near the far southern Erie county till Saturday, it looks like a 2-4" followed by a quick 3-6" dump for the northtowns.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 BUFWEATHER is the luckiest SOB alive, enjoy yet another great event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 FWIW the 18z models quickly veer the winds after 12z Friday and keep it near the far southern Erie county till Saturday, it looks like a 2-4" followed by a quick 3-6" dump for the northtowns.. Don't always trust the models with wind forecast this far out. I was predicted 1-2 inches last night and this is why we got more. Frictional Convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I guess I don't understand because those analogs were lake effect storms that mostly/all hit the Southern Tier/Ski Country. Except the 95 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's been dropping tonight from 9F to now 2F here in Skaneateles. We keep getting under these tiny lake bands, but when you do, its snowing hard despite what looks like light returns. I always enjoy a real COLD snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 I guess I don't understand because those analogs were lake effect storms that mostly/all hit the Southern Tier/Ski Country. Except the 95 one. You're right. Top 5 analogs for friday produced the following events. 12-11-2009 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 27" (Springville); Lake Ontario 40" (Highmarket) Duration: 54 hours +/- Prime Feature: Classic WSW event, all ingredients prime. Well inland extent. This was quite an event to start the season. Surface winds were very strong with resulting in considerable blowing snow and whiteout conditions at times. The NYS thruway was closed between Dunkirk and the PA line with hundreds of motorists stranded. The Buffalo and Rochester metro areas were affected as well, although major impacts were restricted to Buffalo's South Towns. Snowfall totals were extreme in the heavier areas. It therefore earns five ***** stars. 12-23-2000 20001222/1915 Heavy Snow WFO: BUF Damage: $20.00K Crop: $ Injuries: 0 Fatalities: 0 This lake effect event began as some of the coldest air of the season crossed the Great Lakes. Meandering snow squall produced snowfall rates of two inches an hour. The activity began off Lake Erie during the early morning hours of the 22nd as a cold front crossed the region. The band set up across the Buffalo southtowns with schools across those areas forced to close. During the afternoon, the band lifted north into the city of Buffalo and adjacent suburbs. The band drifted south during the evening hours. A similar scenario developed off Lake Ontario during the mid to late morning hours, then drifted south in the late evening. Specific reports off Lake Erie: 14"" at West Seneca, 12"" at Hamburg, 11"" at Perrysburg and 9"" at Stockton. Off Lake Ontario: 24"" at Hooker, 19"" at Lowville; 16"" at Oswego, and 15"" at North Rose. 1-21-2008 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 25" (Perrysburg); Lake Ontario 37" (Fulton) Duration: 60 hours +/- Prime Feature: Classic westerly flow event. Very dry and cold airmass, but great parameters ohterwise. Longevity and little shear. 1-03-1995 Can't find anything 1-19-1994 Can't find anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 The thing that caught my eye from their forecast was this. THE BAND WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THEFLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION BY MIDDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS THE DISTANTBUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERNTIER...REMAINING THERE WELL INTO SATURDAY. I think this is a Colden/Boston Hill/Springville special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Here is something about the 1994 event. http://jimladueview.blogspot.com/2014/01/extreme-cold-lake-effect-and-what-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Here is what KBuf received on these days 12-11-2009 - 6" 12-23-2000- 6.2" 1-21-2008- 3" 1-03-1995- 11.1" 1-19-1994- 7.1" Definitely a southtown/ski country event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The thing that caught my eye from their forecast was this. THE BAND WILL LIKELY SWING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION BY MID DAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT LAKE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS THE DISTANT BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...REMAINING THERE WELL INTO SATURDAY. I think this is a Colden/Boston Hill/Springville special. If this can hang up a little further north you'll be on a fast track to 200" for the season. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm a pessimist so yeah sorry, I'm just hoping the band stays as organized as models suggest. Been disappointed too often with high wind, some directional shear events like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 If this can hang up a little further north you'll be on a fast track to 200" for the season. Crazy. Nearly all from lake effect too. Only 2 synoptic events were the one from early Dec. where I got like 6.5 inches and the Mesolow which gave me 4 inches I believe. The rest are lake enhanced/snow events. This is why I don't mind warmer temperatures in Dec. It opens up the possibility for what happened last night and over the next few days. I'm a pessimist so yeah sorry, I'm just hoping the band stays as organized as models suggest. Been disappointed too often with high wind, some directional shear events like this before. Yeah I don't think wind shear will be a big deal this go around, moisture will be plentiful as well. Wind direction will be the player here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Here is a good recap of the event last night. Driving: ECC parking lot: Walking along the road: Walking in some of the heaviest stuff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 NAM meanders the band quite a bit especially into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 KBGM typo? lol NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET ENOUGH SNOW TO MAKE ADVISORYCRITERIA LATE THU NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT SHIFTS SOUTH.THE BEST SNOW OF SEVERAL FEET WILL AGAIN BE JUST NORTH OF THEM.COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT IN THE HWOAND HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCH FOR LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Heavy snow, Lackawanna. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Heavy snow moving up through metro. Looks good for at least a couple inches of fluff. Monster flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Congrats buffalo hopefully you guys can get 3-5 inches from this band and 6-12 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 About 4 inches at my office in northern end of Lancaster over the course of a couple hours as the band moved through. We have over 100 acres of "nature preserve" land behind the office - conditions were about as good as they get for a lunchtime hike. Heavy snow, 12 degrees, and SW winds gusting over 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Woow!! VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. WE WILL SEE THE CONCLUSION OF A NEAR ADVISORY/ADVISORY LAKE EFFECT EVENT THIS EVENING OFF OF BOTH LAKES. A CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A WIDESPREAD GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL OF A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE GENERAL SNOWFALL...A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTES FRIDAY MORNING IN THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...AND THE WATERTOWN AREA. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY /FURTHER DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM/. SNOWFALL RATES OVER 3 INCHES PER HOUR OFF OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS PUSHING 2 TO 3 FEET OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SATURDAY EVENING. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LAKES...ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE CURRENT BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS...SOME SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...THEN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL BE ONLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES. NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WILL INITIALLY BE LAKE ENHANCED...BUT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE STARTS TO DEPART...THE STRONG SINGULAR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL START TO DOMINATE. OFF OF LAKE ERIE...INITIALLY...230 FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS...GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE EMBEDDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BECOME MORE EVIDENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING STARTS TO DEPART...AND LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME INCREASING FAVORABLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE. THE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE 240 TO 250 BEFORE SUNRISE...ALLOWING THE LAKE BAND TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO NORTHTOWNS AND DOWNTOWN BUFFALO AREA. ALL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. WELL ALIGNED AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW /WITH WINDS OVER 35KTS/ WILL HELP TO FOCUS A SINGULAR LAKE EFFECT BAND. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND JUST BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...WHICH ALONG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PUSHING OVER 12KFT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL OMEGA...WILL RESULT IN A LAKE BAND CAPABLE OF 3+ INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS SINGULAR BAND OFF LAKE ERIE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING THE BAND WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...STILL CAPABLE OF 2 TO 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES. THE BAND WILL LIKELY SHOW SOME NORTH TO SOUTH MOVEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WIGGLES IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH. MODELS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE BAND WILL BEHAVE ONCE IT PUSHES SOUTH...WITH SOME MODELS BREAKING THE BAND APART ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BEFORE IT REFORMS AND SHIFT NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE MEAN FLOW ONLY MAKES IT TO ABOUT 260/265 DEGREES...AND THUS THE BAND SHOULD NOT PUSH SO FAR SOUTH AS TO BE DISRUPTED. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MEAN WIND DIRECTIONS...KEEPING THE BAND INTACT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING SNOW RATES UP. OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE PARAMETERS ARE JUST AS IMPRESSIVE AS OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND THE BAND WILL SIMILARLY START TO THE NORTH AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE BAND BEING REVEALED BY THE TIME THE SYNOPTIC WAVE DEPARTS. THE BAND SHOULD START ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL JEFFERSON...NORTHERN LEWIS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL...WHERE UPSLOPE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADD ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL RATES OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SIMILARLY PUSH OVER 3 INCHES AND HOUR IN THE BAND. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER LARGE PROBLEM IN BOTH OF THESE BANDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EDGES OF THE BANDS WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS TEND TO FOCUS. THIS WILL CREATE PROBLEMS FROM BLOWING SNOW IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AROUND BOTH SNOW BANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like nice event. Wish I did not have to drive in it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 My grandmothers wake is tomorrow from 2-4 and 6-8 pm in West Seneca. Not gonna be good for traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 My grandmothers wake is tomorrow from 2-4 and 6-8 pm in West Seneca. Not gonna be good for traveling. Definitely not. The 90 is closed starting at midnight. Latest snow map from NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Definitely not. The 90 is closed starting at midnight. Latest snow map from NWS. I guess i'll have to use the backroads to get to the Colden/Springville area, i have to do deliveries there tommorow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Just sitting back back and waiting! cant wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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