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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Meteorology. May add a comp sci. minor in there too

 

Congrats man! I believe someone from our area is going there as well. His name might be Adam. Is he in any of your classes? If so, get him to start posting here as well. This sub-forum is dead compared to others. All the while having some of the best winter weather East of the Rockies. Another graduate from Oswego posts here quite often in winter. His name is OSUmetstud. He lives in Buffalo. Will be nice to have another active poster from the Tug.

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

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Congrats man! I believe someone from our area is going there as well. His name might be Adam. Is he in any of your classes? If so, get him to start posting here as well. This sub-forum is dead compared to others. All the while having some of the best winter weather East of the Rockies. Another graduate from Oswego posts here quite often in winter. His name is OSUmetstud. He lives in Buffalo. Will be nice to have another active poster from the Tug.

Freshman? I'll talk to a few people Monday
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ayuud11

ayuud11

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GFS has shown a SW/WSW wind for like 12 hours next Saturday the last few runs, but that also coincides with a large high pressure arriving, so I don't know.

BY WEDNESDAY THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OF OUR

REGION WITH ARCTIC SOURCED AIR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN

PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE

NOT UNCOMMON FOR NOVEMBER AND FORECAST TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE NOT

EXPECTED TO BE RECORD BREAKING BUT WHAT IS RATHER UNCOMMON IS THE

STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH FROM CANADA. A

NEAR 1050MB CENTER AS FORECAST BY THE NAEFS IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS

ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GREATER THAN 30 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL.

DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY DAY AND

DROP INTO THE 20S BY NIGHT WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF MID TO LATE

DECEMBER. THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL BRING A

THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH FOCUS AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE

SHORES. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE AT EXTREME LEVELS WITH

850MB TEMPS LOWERING BELOW -10C AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS

RISING ABOVE 10KFT FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT

PROFILES SHOW DECENT SURFACE TO 700MB MOISTURE COMBINED WITH

SYNOPTIC OMEGA INTERSECTING THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION

WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO

CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD

LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR EVEN THOSE NOT SEEING LAKE EFFECT. WIND

SHEAR AND WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHO SEES LAKE SNOW AND WHO

DOES NOT. THIS EVENT WILL BE WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT HAVE

INCREASED POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MORE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING

INTO ALIGNMENT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY WHICH

SHOULD ACT TO SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE SNOWS.

&&

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO

CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD

LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR EVEN THOSE NOT SEEING LAKE EFFECT.

&&

 

The most interesting portion of that. Usually those troughs allow the winds to back. Wind direction for LES is hard to predict outside of 2-3 days though.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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FWIW i just took a look at the 12z gfs BUFKIT data and it does back up those winds to WSW for a while on Thursday.

 

The metro is definitely "due" for a LES event. When was the last major one? I guess you can count the 18 inches last year in the January Blizzard. But before that it would be 2010 (Mainly south Buffalo) The last major airport hit was 2006 in the October storm.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

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The metro is definitely "due" for a LES event. When was the last major one? I guess you can count the 18 inches last year in the January Blizzard. But before that it would be 2010 (Mainly south Buffalo) The last major airport hit was 2006 in the October storm.

Actually you forgot this one below but you are right the last classic one the city had was back in 06.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Actually you forgot this one below but you are right the last classic one the city had was back in 06.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html

 

Yeah, totally forgot about this one. Good catch! I was living in Cheektowaga/Amherst border at the time, is probably why I forgot about it. Only received around 8 inches from that one I believe.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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I can't believe I don't remember this event after reading through it.

 

Prime Feature: Near blizzard conditions. Very strong winds. High population.

The very active early winter continued as close on the heels of a major synoptic storm which dropped 6 to 12 inches across the region on the 19th. The season's most severe lake effect event followed the passage of a sharp front early on Sunday the 21st. A band of synoptic snow dropped 2 to 4 inches across the west and 4 to 8 inches east of Lake Ontario in advance of the front. Winds turned southwest and increased to 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts by early afternoon over the west and almost as strong by late Sunday afternoon east of Lake Ontario. The strong winds inhibited single band formation, but resulted in a broad 20-30 mile wide area of lake snows northeast of Lake Erie right across the Buffalo metro area during the afternoon, which gradually settled south across the city and nearby southern suburbs in the evening. There were actually two and even three single bands embedded within the larger area as winds slowly veered from 240 to 260 by midnight. The winds created whiteouts and near blizzard conditions at times, with drifts commonly three feet across the entire Buffalo metro area.

A trof passed around 3 am on Monday 22nd and bands shifted south where they remained in a weakened form across southern Erie and northern Chaut/Catt counties during the day Monday before drifting north and weakening Monday night, passing across the Buffalo metro with an inch or less early Tuesday morning as winds veered to south.

Off Lake Ontario, a similar scenario ensued, but about 4 to 6 hours later. The main activity was over Jefferson and northern Lewis counties Sunday afternoon and night, gradually shifting south across Oswego county Monday and settling across the Syracuse area later Monday before shifting north and weakening Tuesday morning.

Snowfall amounts were close to a foot across metro Buffalo with a bit more in a strip from Hamburg to West Seneca to Elma to Batavia. Six inches fell up into far southern Niagara county, and even Rochester caught three inches as the band extended that far east for a time Sunday evening. Off Ontario the heaviest amounts fell from central Jefferson to northern Lewis counties, although a narrow area of a foot also was recorded in the Syracuse area and far southern Oswego county as the band stalled Monday.
 

The strong winds and frigid temperatures combined with the heavy snow to create the worst whiteout conditions and drifting in the Buffalo area in several years. Activities were ground to a halt with several major highways closed, including the I-90 NYS Thruway. It affected a large population area base, with the only saving grace being that it was a Sunday afternoon and night which did limit the impact. It therefore earns a strong four **** stars.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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One thing I wonder about as to you 'Non-Ontario' posters; you do realize that anything under 8" from November through April is basically a 'non-event', right? 

 

I was just referring to large Lake effect events recorded at the Buf NWS. Usually I consider those to be 12+ inch storms. Those around the tug probably don't consider it an event unless its at least a foot+. ^_^

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

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Coming from northwest Ohio where we average <40"/yr anything above 3" is an event to me. So this should be a nice change of pace.

On another note, the euro showed a pretty solid LES signal late this week and again next week. Over 1.25" of QPF off Ontario's shoreline between the two stretches.

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scottmartin49

scottmartin49

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I was just referring to large Lake effect events recorded at the Buf NWS. Usually I consider those to be 12+ inch storms. Those around the tug probably don't consider it an event unless its at least a foot+. ^_^

That's about right. No one really recalls individual storms dumping anything under a foot, and 12-18" events usually need a mental cue such as 'Thanksgiving', 'Easter', or '...that time Bill drove twenty feet off the road into a ditch in the whiteout.' :)

 

What knocks even us flat is those one week or longer periods where it Just. Doesn't. Stop. Those are tough- they usually involve two or more NWS events arriving in quick succession, and we don't really see them as 'fun'. 

 

AppsRunner; Wait until the ropes go up between the buildings before you get too excited; a close look at the angle on those trees should give you an idea of what to expect! :D

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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Actually you forgot this one below but you are right the last classic one the city had was back in 06.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html

 

I remember this event now, I wonder if we could dig back far enough to find the thread with it.  I left a christmas party that Sunday Morning in Alden and decided to drive west to jump on the Thruway at Transit Road (Just to get into the snow band).  The thruway from Transit to Batavia was extremely scary (and I've chased a lot of snow before) to the point of being nearly impassable because of whiteout conditions.  I remember all of us being blown away that NWS in Buf didnt drop the B word on this event...  That was nasty one fore sure but not a prolific snow producer.  

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

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Euro has a small bullseye of 0.6"+ or so off Ontario towards the end of the week. At the very least parameters look good with 850 delta ts running close to -20C for a 24 hour window. GFS is much less bullish and the GEM is more westerly with the winds but at least someone should see some accumulating snow off the lake by this weekend

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crownweather

crownweather

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I wanted to introduce myself to this part of the board as my wife and I are strongly considering and most likely will be moving to the Buffalo area by or before next fall.

I'm Rob Lightbown and I currently reside in Presque Isle, Maine, which is in the very northern part of Maine.  I have been forecasting the weather up here since 1991 and needless to say I am very used to forecasting synoptic scale winter storms; therefore, I am very much looking forward to the challenge of forecasting meso and even microscale lake effect/lake enhanced weather events.    

We made the decision to move to the Buffalo area while visiting there just last month.  We both fell in love with the area and like the opportunities that are available to both of us.  My wife wants to go back to school for her masters and eventually her PhD and I would like to expand my weather forecasting company, Crown Weather Services, a little more; something that I have hit a dead end with in my local area.  

Anyways, I'll be looking at the various posts on this part of the forum throughout the winter and if you don't mind, may ask questions regarding the lake effect machine that gets cranked up at times during the winter.  

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