steffen Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 First flakes here just above Ithaca for the past half hour. Always exciting to see the white stuff again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Here at SU, we had a 10 min. period of slush falling out of the sky....not really flakes...but, it's the start!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Here at SU, we had a 10 min. period of slush falling out of the sky....not really flakes...but, it's the start!! Welcome back LEK. We've missed ya here! Had quite a bit of grauple yesterday in some scattered LES Huron/Ontario streamers. Enough to cover the ground. (quickly melted though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like the lakes could get active again next week... I've been itching for snow in Oswego for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like the lakes could get active again next week... I've been itching for snow in Oswego for a while Ready for the LES to get going as well. What are you studying at Oswego? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Ready for the LES to get going as well. What are you studying at Oswego?Meteorology. May add a comp sci. minor in there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Meteorology. May add a comp sci. minor in there too Congrats man! I believe someone from our area is going there as well. His name might be Adam. Is he in any of your classes? If so, get him to start posting here as well. This sub-forum is dead compared to others. All the while having some of the best winter weather East of the Rockies. Another graduate from Oswego posts here quite often in winter. His name is OSUmetstud. He lives in Buffalo. Will be nice to have another active poster from the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Any chance for measurable LES in a non-NW wind for the upcoming week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Leelee, on 08 Nov 2014 - 8:12 PM, said:Any chance for measurable LES in a non-NW wind for the upcoming week? Next weekend looks decent for the metro area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Congrats man! I believe someone from our area is going there as well. His name might be Adam. Is he in any of your classes? If so, get him to start posting here as well. This sub-forum is dead compared to others. All the while having some of the best winter weather East of the Rockies. Another graduate from Oswego posts here quite often in winter. His name is OSUmetstud. He lives in Buffalo. Will be nice to have another active poster from the Tug.Freshman? I'll talk to a few people Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Freshman? I'll talk to a few people Monday Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Next weekend looks decent for the metro area.. I was seeing W/NW winds during that period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 GFS has shown a SW/WSW wind for like 12 hours next Saturday the last few runs, but that also coincides with a large high pressure arriving, so I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 GFS has shown a SW/WSW wind for like 12 hours next Saturday the last few runs, but that also coincides with a large high pressure arriving, so I don't know. BY WEDNESDAY THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH ARCTIC SOURCED AIR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR NOVEMBER AND FORECAST TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE RECORD BREAKING BUT WHAT IS RATHER UNCOMMON IS THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH FROM CANADA. A NEAR 1050MB CENTER AS FORECAST BY THE NAEFS IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GREATER THAN 30 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL. DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY DAY AND DROP INTO THE 20S BY NIGHT WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF MID TO LATE DECEMBER. THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL BRING A THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH FOCUS AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE SHORES. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE AT EXTREME LEVELS WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWERING BELOW -10C AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING ABOVE 10KFT FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW DECENT SURFACE TO 700MB MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC OMEGA INTERSECTING THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR EVEN THOSE NOT SEEING LAKE EFFECT. WIND SHEAR AND WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHO SEES LAKE SNOW AND WHO DOES NOT. THIS EVENT WILL BE WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MORE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING INTO ALIGNMENT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE SNOWS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR EVEN THOSE NOT SEEING LAKE EFFECT. && The most interesting portion of that. Usually those troughs allow the winds to back. Wind direction for LES is hard to predict outside of 2-3 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Anyone got any plans on Veterans day? Going to be beautiful! Veterans Day - Sunny, with a high near 67. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Predominant winds would be NW in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Predominant winds would be NW in this scenario. FWIW i just took a look at the 12z gfs BUFKIT data and it does back up those winds to WSW for a while on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 FWIW i just took a look at the 12z gfs BUFKIT data and it does back up those winds to WSW for a while on Thursday. The metro is definitely "due" for a LES event. When was the last major one? I guess you can count the 18 inches last year in the January Blizzard. But before that it would be 2010 (Mainly south Buffalo) The last major airport hit was 2006 in the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 The metro is definitely "due" for a LES event. When was the last major one? I guess you can count the 18 inches last year in the January Blizzard. But before that it would be 2010 (Mainly south Buffalo) The last major airport hit was 2006 in the October storm. Actually you forgot this one below but you are right the last classic one the city had was back in 06. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 Actually you forgot this one below but you are right the last classic one the city had was back in 06. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html Yeah, totally forgot about this one. Good catch! I was living in Cheektowaga/Amherst border at the time, is probably why I forgot about it. Only received around 8 inches from that one I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2014 Author Share Posted November 9, 2014 I can't believe I don't remember this event after reading through it. Prime Feature: Near blizzard conditions. Very strong winds. High population. The very active early winter continued as close on the heels of a major synoptic storm which dropped 6 to 12 inches across the region on the 19th. The season's most severe lake effect event followed the passage of a sharp front early on Sunday the 21st. A band of synoptic snow dropped 2 to 4 inches across the west and 4 to 8 inches east of Lake Ontario in advance of the front. Winds turned southwest and increased to 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts by early afternoon over the west and almost as strong by late Sunday afternoon east of Lake Ontario. The strong winds inhibited single band formation, but resulted in a broad 20-30 mile wide area of lake snows northeast of Lake Erie right across the Buffalo metro area during the afternoon, which gradually settled south across the city and nearby southern suburbs in the evening. There were actually two and even three single bands embedded within the larger area as winds slowly veered from 240 to 260 by midnight. The winds created whiteouts and near blizzard conditions at times, with drifts commonly three feet across the entire Buffalo metro area.A trof passed around 3 am on Monday 22nd and bands shifted south where they remained in a weakened form across southern Erie and northern Chaut/Catt counties during the day Monday before drifting north and weakening Monday night, passing across the Buffalo metro with an inch or less early Tuesday morning as winds veered to south.Off Lake Ontario, a similar scenario ensued, but about 4 to 6 hours later. The main activity was over Jefferson and northern Lewis counties Sunday afternoon and night, gradually shifting south across Oswego county Monday and settling across the Syracuse area later Monday before shifting north and weakening Tuesday morning.Snowfall amounts were close to a foot across metro Buffalo with a bit more in a strip from Hamburg to West Seneca to Elma to Batavia. Six inches fell up into far southern Niagara county, and even Rochester caught three inches as the band extended that far east for a time Sunday evening. Off Ontario the heaviest amounts fell from central Jefferson to northern Lewis counties, although a narrow area of a foot also was recorded in the Syracuse area and far southern Oswego county as the band stalled Monday. The strong winds and frigid temperatures combined with the heavy snow to create the worst whiteout conditions and drifting in the Buffalo area in several years. Activities were ground to a halt with several major highways closed, including the I-90 NYS Thruway. It affected a large population area base, with the only saving grace being that it was a Sunday afternoon and night which did limit the impact. It therefore earns a strong four **** stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 One thing I wonder about as to you 'Non-Ontario' posters; you do realize that anything under 8" from November through April is basically a 'non-event', right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 One thing I wonder about as to you 'Non-Ontario' posters; you do realize that anything under 8" from November through April is basically a 'non-event', right? I was just referring to large Lake effect events recorded at the Buf NWS. Usually I consider those to be 12+ inch storms. Those around the tug probably don't consider it an event unless its at least a foot+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Coming from northwest Ohio where we average <40"/yr anything above 3" is an event to me. So this should be a nice change of pace. On another note, the euro showed a pretty solid LES signal late this week and again next week. Over 1.25" of QPF off Ontario's shoreline between the two stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I was just referring to large Lake effect events recorded at the Buf NWS. Usually I consider those to be 12+ inch storms. Those around the tug probably don't consider it an event unless its at least a foot+. That's about right. No one really recalls individual storms dumping anything under a foot, and 12-18" events usually need a mental cue such as 'Thanksgiving', 'Easter', or '...that time Bill drove twenty feet off the road into a ditch in the whiteout.' What knocks even us flat is those one week or longer periods where it Just. Doesn't. Stop. Those are tough- they usually involve two or more NWS events arriving in quick succession, and we don't really see them as 'fun'. AppsRunner; Wait until the ropes go up between the buildings before you get too excited; a close look at the angle on those trees should give you an idea of what to expect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Actually you forgot this one below but you are right the last classic one the city had was back in 06. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/h/stormsumh.html I remember this event now, I wonder if we could dig back far enough to find the thread with it. I left a christmas party that Sunday Morning in Alden and decided to drive west to jump on the Thruway at Transit Road (Just to get into the snow band). The thruway from Transit to Batavia was extremely scary (and I've chased a lot of snow before) to the point of being nearly impassable because of whiteout conditions. I remember all of us being blown away that NWS in Buf didnt drop the B word on this event... That was nasty one fore sure but not a prolific snow producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Euro has a small bullseye of 0.6"+ or so off Ontario towards the end of the week. At the very least parameters look good with 850 delta ts running close to -20C for a 24 hour window. GFS is much less bullish and the GEM is more westerly with the winds but at least someone should see some accumulating snow off the lake by this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I wanted to introduce myself to this part of the board as my wife and I are strongly considering and most likely will be moving to the Buffalo area by or before next fall.I'm Rob Lightbown and I currently reside in Presque Isle, Maine, which is in the very northern part of Maine. I have been forecasting the weather up here since 1991 and needless to say I am very used to forecasting synoptic scale winter storms; therefore, I am very much looking forward to the challenge of forecasting meso and even microscale lake effect/lake enhanced weather events. We made the decision to move to the Buffalo area while visiting there just last month. We both fell in love with the area and like the opportunities that are available to both of us. My wife wants to go back to school for her masters and eventually her PhD and I would like to expand my weather forecasting company, Crown Weather Services, a little more; something that I have hit a dead end with in my local area. Anyways, I'll be looking at the various posts on this part of the forum throughout the winter and if you don't mind, may ask questions regarding the lake effect machine that gets cranked up at times during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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