cny rider Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 It's flurrying here now so at least I can remember what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Not much to talk about. Flurries today reminding us its actually winter. Bare ground...looks like we got our pattern change finally, and its not being productive this time around...trough anchored over central CONUS, sometimes with a + tilt and a +NAO keeping things moving along. The northeast has managed to make out ok with similar patterns in previous winters, but maybe not this time around. LES looks mostly dead with only glancing shots of seasonably cold air. Hopefully this changes moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Here's a couple shots I took of Lake Ontario on the 27th. It looked and felt more like mid-September than 2 days after Christmas. It's too bad this turn to colder weather isn't favorable for at least any significant lake effect. Lots of winter to go though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Here's a couple shots I took of Lake Ontario on the 27th. It looked and felt more like mid-September than 2 days after Christmas. It's too bad this turn to colder weather isn't favorable for at least any significant lake effect. Lots of winter to go though... IMG_0025.JPG IMG_0048.JPG Some awesome pics Bumble. Thanks for sharing. LES looks good for the Tug and a storm system that looks impossible to forecast after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Foot+ when all is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's snowing haha. Sorry got excited lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Foot+ when all is done. I'm still up in Redfield until Saturday. Just issued LES watch. Im just south of the reservoir. More south Redfield. This setups can be tricky. Sometimes north Redfield gets 2' and we get a few inches. Hope it works out this time. Will keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm still up in Redfield until Saturday. Just issued LES watch. Im just south of the reservoir. More south Redfield. This setups can be tricky. Sometimes north Redfield gets 2' and we get a few inches. Hope it works out this time. Will keep you posted. Yeah, definitely keep us updated. Looks like Redfield would be a good spot for this one. It's snowing haha. Sorry got excited lol. It's been far to long this month without snow, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Rev do you ride on the Tug or close to home? Looking really good this week into the weekend for the Tug. I can see 1-2 feet by Sunday easily. Right on the money. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hey Ayuud did you see the 0Z NAM Hi-res? Looks pretty solid for the Metro. Maybe 2-4 inches on New Years Eve/Day? Going to be really windy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Right on the money. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. Hmmmm, road trip to the Tug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 an unexpected 2-1/4" last night...lake effect powder, 0.07" liquid. 32:1 ratio. Broom or leaf blower is all you need to clear it! First snow on ground since about the 23rd. It'll have to do as the lake effect warning is up to the north, the Tug Hill as usual, followed by another disgusting cutter storm featuring ground clearing rain. This appears to be our lot in life this winter. I should have done a better job cleaning up the flower beds of weeds this fall, since I'll apparently be looking at them until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hey Ayuud did you see the 0Z NAM Hi-res? Looks pretty solid for the Metro. Maybe 2-4 inches on New Years Eve/Day? Going to be really windy too. Check out the snow totals north of lake superior in Ontario...is that Lake Effect on SW flow? Or synoptic...it has the look of a lake effect distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah gravestone that is sw flow lake effect. If the synoptic moisture was 200-300 miles south this would be a major les event for buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sorry mill busy all week with work and have family up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll keep you posted from Redfield. Feeling pretty good about this one. You guys can live vicariously through me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sorry mill busy all week with work and have family up. All good. I was mainly just joking around since I haven't seen a flake in over a month down here. I'm attending the National AMS conference starting with travel on Friday, so I wouldn't have much time myself. Enjoy the New Year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll keep you posted from Redfield. Feeling pretty good about this one. You guys can live vicariously through me. Usually its the other way around. Have fun up there. I hope you brought your snowmobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 All good. I was mainly just joking around since I haven't seen a flake in over a month down here. I'm attending the National AMS conference starting with travel on Friday, so I wouldn't have much time myself. Enjoy the New Year!! That sounds awesome. How long until you are a certified Met? Do you have to pass a certification exam or just pass the 4 year program? You have a great new year as well! I'll keep you posted from Redfield. Feeling pretty good about this one. You guys can live vicariously through me. Usually its the other way around. Yeah, definitely keep us posted with some videos/pictures. Should be a solid event in that area. 2+ inches per hour with totals over 2 feet likely by the end of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That sounds awesome. How long until you are a certified Met? Do you have to pass a certification exam or just pass the 4 year program? You have a great new year as well. Thanks Buffalo. I have one semester left at Millersville, then I get my degree. I just have to pass the 4 year program to become certified. No certification exams here. We have enough for all our classes . Will be awesome to get a red tag this upcoming summer. A lot of hard work, studying and dedication goes into getting this degree, but I can't imagine doing anything else!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Hey Ayuud did you see the 0Z NAM Hi-res? Looks pretty solid for the Metro. Maybe 2-4 inches on New Years Eve/Day? Going to be really windy too. LES WATCH UP FOR THE METRO AREA!! Off Lake Erie...forecast confidence is a bit lower than off LakeOntario...due to relatively lower synoptic moisture in place. However...forecast model soundings show enough moisture to saturate the low dendritic growth zone. Lake equilibrium levels come up to almost 10kft Wednesday night. Expect that despite the lack of synoptic moisture above about 800 mb...the saturated low-levels with the low dendritic layer will be sufficient for a Good Lake effect snow event. The latest high resolution model runs are also catching on to Strong Lake effect snow band developing off of Lake Erie by late Wednesday afternoon. In terms of placement...it looks like this band will set up right through the Buffalo metropolitan area for Wednesday night...which could prove even more impactful due to the New Year Holiday. Snow rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour are possible with this lake effect snow band...with total accumulation 6 to 12 inches possible. Have issued a lake effect snow watch with this forecast update. Winds will pick up Wednesday night...with gusts up to 35 miles per hour at times. This will bring wind chills to around zero and blowing snow in and around the lake effect snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Good call for Tug Hill Buffalo Weather. Latest warning says 2'+ for Tug Hill. Key will be how long we keep winds out of the west and not southwest for Redfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sweet!! Hopefully this keeps trending in the right direction heading into tomorrow. Lake Effect Snow WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY103 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014NYZ010>012-085-310215-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0011.141231T2000Z-150102T1100Z/NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE103 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2014...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHLATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE...GENESEE AND WYOMINGCOUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREAWEDNESDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 TO 12 INCHES INTHE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES* IMPACTS...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THEAREA ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL RESULT INHAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIESAND SNOW COVERED ROADS.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THEEXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yep...getting better every model run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Strong little meso low about to move in from Lake Ontario: http://www.localsyr.com/livedoppler9/eastern-lake-ontario/ Nice start for you swva. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AT 900 PM...RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWED A MESO LOW ACROSS EASTERN LAKEONTARIO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE LATE THISEVENING. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWROUGHLY BETWEEN AND EAST OF A WATERTOWN TO OSWEGO LINE THROUGH 1AM. AFTER THIS...A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS LIKELY TO FOCUS EAST OFLAKE ONTARIO NEAR NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW INCREASING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...* AT 956 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDA LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OFAROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE ONTARIO FROMNINE MILE POINT TO WATERTOWN. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTINTO THE TUG HILL REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 And so it begins. 1st flakes are flying in Redfield! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Have fun everyone up near the Tug. Will bring in the New Year with a bang up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Looks really good for the TUG, and also looking progressively better for Metro Buffalo. Bullseye right through the city. I will be out downtown tomorrow night, most likely staying overnight at my grandmas house in the city. Should be a fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Tug wins again. West flow. Bahh Humbug. I'll have to live vicariously through others again while waiting for the weekend rain. Great winter. #not (Yes. Yes, I'm whining a bit. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Tug wins again. West flow. Bahh Humbug. I'll have to live vicariously through others again while waiting for the weekend rain. Great winter. #not (Yes. Yes, I'm whining a bit. ) It's actually a mainly Southwest flow here and W to SW to W flow in the Tug. But yeah, the Tug wins 99.9% of the years over anyone East of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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