Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!

[schinz]

Cleveland Nws. The lake temp is 39 but half of it has temps from 40-45 still so we might be able to see some decent lake effect or lake enhanced snow on Xmas depending on track.

WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME. RAIN ON

WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN

TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS

PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS. BUT WITH A

SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

 

 

The flow seems to want to go more Northwesterly in the period between Sat. the 28th and the 1st of the year. I am starting to get optimistic about some decent lake effect in ski country during that time frame. 850's to get progressively colder during that period also.

[Syrmax]

Looks like a pretty good bet on a wound up system to our northwest on Christmas, but sensible weather impacts (other than wind) still seem up in the air. Gusty and mainly dry, or wind-driven periods of snow...?

Maybe a few snowshowers in WNY, at best a brief period of LES, but for most of us probably just windy and mostly dry. Certainly a brown Christmas is all but guaranteed for most of this forum unless you're on a hill with deep snowcover. Looks like wintry wx is a wrap until closer to New Years. At least another 7-8 days or so.

[BuffaloWeather]

I think Lake Erie was 40-50% frozen at this time last year. With it completely wide open for nearly all of January we have some epic potential.

[Syrmax]

Long range models show an improved situation once we get past the next 2 cutters. We'll just have to grin and bear it till then. It's only a week. No way of knowing how long it'll last but the El Niño effect coupled with some -AO help at times will probably at least make it interesting.

[BuffaloWeather]

Nice christmas.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The one positive in such a dull pattern. The lake won't be freezing anytime soon which leaves open the possibility of LES events well into February. This weeks looks really warm and no ice on the lake by January the potential is huge. Overall the lake is 2 degrees warmer than average for the date, will probably be 4-5 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

 

[Buffalo Bumble]

The one positive in such a dull pattern. The lake won't be freezing anytime soon which leaves open the possibility of LES events well into February. This weeks looks really warm and no ice on the lake by January the potential is huge. Overall the lake is 2 degrees warmer than average for the date, will probably be 4-5 degrees above normal by the end of the week.

 

 

At this rate beaches will be open by MLK day and we'll be playing in the sand.  Seriously...I'm always leery of a much above average lake temp as we move through January.  It means the pattern is just persistently mild. The lake can sit at 50 deg all winter but if we get weak sauce Pacific based cold fronts moving through once a week it won't matter.  Too early to go there I know, but long range trends lately have not been too promising to say the least.    

 

Ok - downer rant over.  Happy Holiday's to everyone on the forum here!  

[schinz]

Oh...I think things really start looking good once we get through Sunday!!!!  Euro looks sweet...by Tuesday morning 850's are in -11 range, -15 by Wed. morning and -21 by Thursday morning.  With Erie that warm relative to average, we could see some good potential.  Am I looking at this wrong?

[swva]

Oh...I think things really start looking good once we get through Sunday!!!!  Euro looks sweet...by Tuesday morning 850's are in -11 range, -15 by Wed. morning and -21 by Thursday morning.  With Erie that warm relative to average, we could see some good potential.  Am I looking at this wrong?

Correct!  If the Euro is right, the lakes could begin to fire and things get interesting off Erie and Ontario.  Also nice synoptic event to start things off.  Models have been all over the place though.  Would love to see a couple model runs in a row like the 12z Euro.

[BuffaloWeather]

At this rate beaches will be open by MLK day and we'll be playing in the sand.  Seriously...I'm always leery of a much above average lake temp as we move through January.  It means the pattern is just persistently mild. The lake can sit at 50 deg all winter but if we get weak sauce Pacific based cold fronts moving through once a week it won't matter.  Too early to go there I know, but long range trends lately have not been too promising to say the least.    

 

Ok - downer rant over.  Happy Holiday's to everyone on the forum here!  

 

I highly disagree with this. I mean unless we get a winter like 11-12, this is highly unlikely. Lake Erie freezes over 69% of the time which means the lake is 90% frozen. For example, just look at a few events last year. If the lake wasn't frozen, Buffalo would have been slammed. When Watertown gets hit hard, KBUF is usually smack dab in the middle of the hardest stuff.

 

 

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 1" (North Amherst); Lake Ontario 26.7" (Watertown)

Duration: 18 hours +/-

Prime feature: West-southwest flow over Lake Ontario, very little response off Lake Erie.

 

 

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 1.4" (Colden); Lake Ontario 30" (Watertown)

Duration: 18 hours +/-

Prime feature: Northern extent of Lake Ontario band.

 

 

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie None; Lake Ontario 15" (Watertown)

Duration: 12 hours +/-

Prime feature: Low top band; Southwest flow.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

After researching this, I am actually quite angry the lake froze so early. This is not even including this event which featured a 50% frozen lake Erie. If the Lake didn't freeze over so early Kbuf would of finished with 3 more incredible LES events like Watertown did. Instead of 130 inches on the year it would of been close to 175"+

 

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 22" (Orchard Park); Lake Ontario 60" (Rodman)

Duration: 60 to 72 hours +/-

Prime feature: Excessive snow on the Tug Hill and blizzard conditions in Buffalo

 

[BuffaloWeather]

While this pattern truthfully blows, having a Lake with literally no ice and temperature anomalies running 4-5 degs above normal heading into what is climatologically speaking our coldest month. It opens up so many more possibilities if we were to get the right ingredients.

[BuffaloWeather]

Oh...I think things really start looking good once we get through Sunday!!!!  Euro looks sweet...by Tuesday morning 850's are in -11 range, -15 by Wed. morning and -21 by Thursday morning.  With Erie that warm relative to average, we could see some good potential.  Am I looking at this wrong?

 

While the cold is helpful we need other elements to come into play to initiate LES. Haven't had a chance to look at much model data lately as I've been very busy. Maybe OSU, LEK, or Mill can chime in.

 

BUF NWS seems unimpressed.

 

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE

WITH THE PATTERN...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE SWINGS

IN RANGES OF POSSIBILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. THE GFS IS MOST BENIGN...

WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND EARLY

MONDAY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND WEAK LAKE EFFECT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SLOWER

SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST

ON MONDAY...WHICH IS A FULL DAY LATER THAN ITS SOLUTION FROM

YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST GO WITH A LOW

CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND

CONSISTENCY IS SEEN. IT DOES APPEAR TO TURN COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK

WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR...OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

BY DAY 7.

[BuffaloWeather]

Oh yeah...Some crazy winds are coming fellas. Pretty awesome write-up from KBUF.

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO4 PM EST THURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...ERIE...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...GENESEE...  WYOMING...AND MONROE COUNTIES.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY  AFTERNOON.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BRING DOWN SOME TREES  AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THESE  WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE  VEHICLES. IN ADDITION...HOLIDAY DECORATIONS WILL BE DAMAGED IF  THEY ARE NOT SECURELY TIED DOWN.

SEVERE POTENTIAL...

LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO DROP THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOWN TO
JUST BELOW 0C WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 100J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. BY SUMMER STANDARDS THIS INSTABILITY IS
NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT
IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT MAY
PRODUCE THUNDER. 500MB WINDS EXCEED 100 KNOTS...WHICH IS AN OLD RULE
OF THUMB THRESHOLD FOR A COLD SEASON DERECHO IF A STRONGLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT. IF SUCH A CONVECTIVE LINE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE MID LEVELS
MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THESE SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SMALL SCALE BOWING
SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE...IF IT MATERIALIZES.

WIND POTENTIAL...

THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO DOWN THE MIDDLE OF OUR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SAINT
LOUIS UNIVERSITY PULLS UP SEVERAL NOTABLE HIGH WIND EVENTS FROM THE
PAST...INCLUDING AN EVENT FROM JANUARY OF 2008 AND DECEMBER OF 2008
WHICH BOTH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN SEVERE
WEATHER NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC AIR WITH THE DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE FOLDING DOWN TO AROUND 500MB WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...INDICATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MIXING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANNEL OF
STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE AND CROSSING THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...LAKE ONTARIO...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

THE NAM REMAINS STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WITH JUST OVER 70 KNOTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
DECK WHILE GFS WINDS ARE IN THE 55-60 KNOT RANGE AT THAT LEVEL...
BUT EVEN THE WEAKER GFS WINDS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING
CRITERIA GUSTS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SCHEMES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS.

GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...ANALOG SUPPORT...AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION WE WILL UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND
ALSO IN JEFFERSON COUNTY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE HAVE
INCREASED WIND GUST POTENTIAL SOME AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND 60 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE FILLED IN WITH A WIND ADVISORY
WHERE GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FASTER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...STARTING IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

[MillvilleWx]

Wow. That is a fantastic discussion by KBUF. I don't think there's any question about the wind potential up there. I wouldn't be surprised to see a peak gust over 70 near the lake shore off Erie. Good luck up there!!

[BuffaloWeather]

Wow. That is a fantastic discussion by KBUF. I don't think there's any question about the wind potential up there. I wouldn't be surprised to see a peak gust over 70 near the lake shore off Erie. Good luck up there!!

 

Yeah should be a fun one. We can get some crazy wind events here Northeast of the lake. It channels right across the entire thing and picks up steam as it goes over land. I lost quite a few trees in a few wind events in winter at my parents house. Pine trees have shallow roots and are usually the first to go.

[Buffalo Bumble]

I highly disagree with this. I mean unless we get a winter like 11-12, this is highly unlikely. Lake Erie freezes over 69% of the time which means the lake is 90% frozen. For example, just look at a few events last year. If the lake wasn't frozen, Buffalo would have been slammed. When Watertown gets hit hard, KBUF is usually smack dab in the middle of the hardest stuff.

 

True, but the pattern that was in place to make those events possible in Watertown (e.g. highly displaced and persistent  polar vortex over southeastern Canada) by default leads to a rapid freeze of Lake Erie.  Since 2000/2001, 5 of the 6 lowest annual snow totals at BUF occurred when the lake froze after Feb 8, or never froze at all (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44941-just-a-matter-of-time/page-2).  So in that regard, we want a cold pattern to lock in relatively soon to start the freeze process, and along with it give us a window of lake effect events off Erie.  Note that this correlation is for seasonal snow totals at BUF, not necessarily single lake effect events that would of course be possible in Feb/Mar with an unfrozen lake.  I would be curious to see how many big events occurred in Feb/Mar in years when the lake had minimal ice cover.  

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

I highly disagree with this. I mean unless we get a winter like 11-12, this is highly unlikely. Lake Erie freezes over 69% of the time which means the lake is 90% frozen. For example, just look at a few events last year. If the lake wasn't frozen, Buffalo would have been slammed. When Watertown gets hit hard, KBUF is usually smack dab in the middle of the hardest stuff.

 

True, but the pattern that was in place to make those events possible in Watertown (e.g. highly displaced and persistent  polar vortex over southeastern Canada) by default leads to a rapid freeze of Lake Erie.  Since 2000/2001, 5 of the 6 lowest annual snow totals at BUF occurred when the lake froze after Feb 8, or never froze at all (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44941-just-a-matter-of-time/page-2).  So in that regard, we want a cold pattern to lock in relatively soon to start the freeze process, and along with it give us a window of lake effect events off Erie.  Note that this correlation is for seasonal snow totals at BUF, not necessarily single lake effect events that would of course be possible in Feb/Mar with an unfrozen lake.  I would be curious to see how many big events occurred in Feb/Mar in years when the lake had minimal ice cover.  

 

 

 

 

An open lake allows the possibilities for LES well into the winter. Just look at this event in Feb. of 2007. I think East Aurora had 45 inches in that one. Lake Erie is 39 Degrees today and will likely be that around the new year. Unless we get some insanely brutal arctic air, we won't have a 75%+ frozen lake until the 1st/2nd week of Feb. If the lake was already 40% frozen like this time last year we wouldn't have as much opportunity.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/locust/

 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

I highly disagree with this. I mean unless we get a winter like 11-12, this is highly unlikely. Lake Erie freezes over 69% of the time which means the lake is 90% frozen. For example, just look at a few events last year. If the lake wasn't frozen, Buffalo would have been slammed. When Watertown gets hit hard, KBUF is usually smack dab in the middle of the hardest stuff.

 

True, but the pattern that was in place to make those events possible in Watertown (e.g. highly displaced and persistent  polar vortex over southeastern Canada) by default leads to a rapid freeze of Lake Erie.  Since 2000/2001, 5 of the 6 lowest annual snow totals at BUF occurred when the lake froze after Feb 8, or never froze at all (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44941-just-a-matter-of-time/page-2).  So in that regard, we want a cold pattern to lock in relatively soon to start the freeze process, and along with it give us a window of lake effect events off Erie.  Note that this correlation is for seasonal snow totals at BUF, not necessarily single lake effect events that would of course be possible in Feb/Mar with an unfrozen lake.  I would be curious to see how many big events occurred in Feb/Mar in years when the lake had minimal ice cover.  

 

 

 

 

There is not much documentation of this as the Lake usually freezes by the 2nd week of Feb.

 

Here's a few of the more major events I found.

 

 Lake Effect Storm February 28-March 2, 2005

• 

 

 Lake Effect  - Februray 5-8, 2006

• 

Lake Effect Summary - April 4-8, 2007

 

 

 

 

Lake Effect Summary - February 19 - 20, 2008

Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 14" (Elma)   Lake Ontario 49" (Pulaski) 

Duration: 42 hours +/- 

Prime Feature: Impressive westerly flow event. Uncertain ice coverage issues off Lake Erie.

 

Lake Effect Summary - February 19-21, 2013

 

 

 

Lake Effect Summary - March 19-22, 2013

 

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The BUF NWS database only goes back to 2004 -.-

[BuffaloWeather]

Strong winds a coming.

 

[ayuud11]

Strong winds a coming.

 

Latest AFD from BUF.

 

FIRST A SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM LOWER

MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AND REACH

WESTERN QUEBEC BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING

THIS LOW WILL ENTER WESTERN NY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN

SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

BE CLOSE TO THE DEFINITION OF BOMBOGENESIS...WITH 24 HOUR PRESSURE

FALLS APPROACHING 24MB. A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING

THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON A SIMILAR TRACK AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF

STRONG ASCENT WITHIN THE DPVA REGION ON ITS EASTERN FLANK.

 

SEVERE POTENTIAL...

LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO DROP THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOWN TO

JUST BELOW 0C WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 100J/KG FOR PARCELS ROOTED JUST

ABOVE THE SURFACE. BY SUMMER STANDARDS THIS INSTABILITY IS

NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT

IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT MAY

PRODUCE THUNDER. 500MB WINDS EXCEED 100 KNOTS...WHICH IS AN OLD RULE

OF THUMB THRESHOLD FOR A COLD SEASON DERECHO IF A STRONGLY FORCED

ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT. IF SUCH A CONVECTIVE LINE IS ABLE TO

DEVELOP...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE MID LEVELS

MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THESE SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SMALL SCALE BOWING

SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE...IF IT MATERIALIZES.

 

WIND POTENTIAL...

THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO DOWN THE MIDDLE OF OUR

CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT NORTHEAST OF

LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SAINT

LOUIS UNIVERSITY PULLS UP SEVERAL NOTABLE HIGH WIND EVENTS FROM THE

PAST...INCLUDING AN EVENT FROM JANUARY OF 2008 AND DECEMBER OF 2008

WHICH BOTH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN SEVERE

WEATHER NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN

SHOWING AN INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC AIR WITH THE DYNAMIC

TROPOPAUSE FOLDING DOWN TO AROUND 500MB WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY

SLOT...INDICATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BETTER POTENTIAL

FOR DEEP MIXING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANNEL OF

STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE AND CROSSING THE NIAGARA

FRONTIER...LAKE ONTARIO...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

LIKEWISE...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE 1.5 PV SFC WILL LOWER TO AS

LOW AS 850MB...BUT THE CORE WILL STAY JUST TO THE WEST ON THE

OTHER SIDE OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GENERAL LOBE OF THIS FOLD

WILL CROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z CHRISTMAS EVE

THOUGH...MAKING THIS THE TIME OF HIGHEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

WILL TWEAK THE WIND GUSTS ACCORDINGLY.

THE NAM REMAINS STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT IN THE POST FRONTAL

ENVIRONMENT...WITH JUST OVER 70 KNOTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE

DECK WHILE GFS WINDS ARE IN THE 55-60 KNOT RANGE AT THAT LEVEL...

BUT EVEN THE WEAKER GFS WINDS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING

CRITERIA GUSTS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER

SCHEMES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS.

GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...ANALOG SUPPORT...AND PATTERN

RECOGNITION...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE LAKE ERIE

SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO IN

JEFFERSON COUNTY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE HAVE INCREASED WIND

GUST POTENTIAL SOME AS WELL...WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE

NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND 60 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE

REST OF THE CWA WILL BE FILLED IN WITH A WIND ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS

OF 50-55 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FASTER THAN MODEL

GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...STARTING IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

[BuffaloWeather]

Latest AFD from BUF.

 

I'm breaking out the candles.

[BuffaloWeather]

I know it's cherry-picking and way out there in the model data, but this is the 3rd straight run that the Euro develops a pretty massive storm in the 150-180 hour time-frame.

 

[ayuud11]

I know it's cherry-picking and way out there in the model data, but this is the 3rd straight run that the Euro develops a pretty massive storm in the 150-180 hour time-frame.

 

LOL latest GFS run says what storm? love that vodka cold for new years though..

[BuffaloWeather]

LOL latest GFS run says what storm? love that vodka cold for new years though..

 

GFS sucks though. Euro+Ensembles all winter for me.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

The Euro nailed the storm coming through Xmas. It was unwavering in its path, while the other models were all over the map and it looks like the king Euro wins again.

[Chinook]

Soundings near Buffalo at 06z December 25 have some of the strongest wind fields throughout the atmosphere I've ever seen. Highly relevant high-wind discussion by BUF office mentions 65mph winds.

[DeltaT13]

GFS sucks though. Euro+Ensembles all winter for me.

 

I think the GFS hate is a little overstated.  I pretty much just peruse the GFS 850's at 0z and 12z everyday and always have a real good ballpark feel for the upcoming weather.  People fluff the **** out of the Euro...

 

GFS isnt perfect but it did very well on the December 9th storm.  

[DeltaT13]

I'm really starting to like this setup for tonight.  A nice squall line is taking shape over Ohio.  This system definitely reminds me of the January 9, 2008 Derecho event.  Which has the record for my highest wind gust ever experienced (~75mph)