MillvilleWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Haha year its crazy up here for Lake Effect and upslope enhancement events if you go to the locations I've posted. I'm quite surprised Erie is able to keep up so well with totals with the Tug. Most of the seasonal totals are not to far off from each other. The highest since the 02-03 season is 388" in Redfield in 06-07', Redfield also received 382" in 08-09'. Crazy! Those are some pretty amazing totals Buffalo. Thanks for sharing. The power of the lakes can not be denied. The Tughill is a snow mecca because of how the setups usually work and the enhancement from orographic lift. It's basically the perfect storm for intense snowfall rates and totals without the having the crazy mountainous elevations of Vermont and Northern New England. Since you probably know this better than I do, what is the perfect climatic setup for a period to get the most snow? Last year we had plenty of cold air over the lakes and the delta T's were outrageous over Ontario early which is why they had some insane events. I'm sure there is more to it, so I'm asking you or LEK or anyone who might have answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Those are some pretty amazing totals Buffalo. Thanks for sharing. The power of the lakes can not be denied. The Tughill is a snow mecca because of how the setups usually work and the enhancement from orographic lift. It's basically the perfect storm for intense snowfall rates and totals without the having the crazy mountainous elevations of Vermont and Northern New England. Since you probably know this better than I do, what is the perfect climatic setup for a period to get the most snow? Last year we had plenty of cold air over the lakes and the delta T's were outrageous over Ontario early which is why they had some insane events. I'm sure there is more to it, so I'm asking you or LEK or anyone who might have answer. The best set-up for KBUF and the strongest bands of LES for Erie is a low pressure system that stalls out north of Lake Superior and brings in a counter clockwise rotation of winds that go right up the length of Lake Erie. Here is a W/NW wind event And a WSW/SW event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Lets get some warmth and sun the next few days to keep the lake warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Lake Erie is still 40 degrees. 1 degree above normal for the date. Surprising since Nov. was so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 It appears it might get active again right around Christmas and the week between Christmas and New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 It appears it might get active again right around Christmas and the week between Christmas and New Year. Agreed. Pattern looks much better from christmas moving forward into the New Year. Both for Lake effect, but especially synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The best set-up for KBUF and the strongest bands of LES for Erie is a low pressure system that stalls out north of Lake Superior and brings in a counter clockwise rotation of winds that go right up the length of Lake Erie. Here is a W/NW wind event And a WSW/SW event: Nice pics. Yeah, I always knew how it happened, but not the best setup for it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nice pics. Yeah, I always knew how it happened, but not the best setup for it. Thanks Sorry. Here is a generic overview of the last event. http://thevane.gawker.com/the-mechanics-behind-lake-effect-snow-natures-greatest-1659711094 Here is the one that probably appeals to you more. This is the best source for LES as its written by Tom Niziol, most likely the best LES mind in the world. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281987%29002%3C0310%3AOFOLES%3E2.0.CO%3B2 I've read that one a few times, truly a great piece for LES enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sorry. Here is a generic overview of the last event. http://thevane.gawker.com/the-mechanics-behind-lake-effect-snow-natures-greatest-1659711094 Here is the one that probably appeals to you more. This is the best source for LES as its written by Tom Niziol, most likely the best LES mind in the world. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281987%29002%3C0310%3AOFOLES%3E2.0.CO%3B2 I've read that one a few times, truly a great piece for LES enthusiasts. Thanks Buffalo. I'll make sure I read up on these articles. From skimming through, they sound really informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Doesn't look very exciting or wintery at all heading into Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Doesn't look very exciting or wintery at all heading into Christmas... Not sure what you're looking at but the period starting around the 24th is the advent of a major pattern change. It's fairly obvious on most models. NAO and AO are heading in the right direction for a much more blocky, amplified pattern. Stop being silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Not sure what you're looking at but the period starting around the 24th is the advent of a major pattern change. It's fairly obvious on most models. NAO and AO are heading in the right direction for a much more blocky, amplified pattern. Stop being silly. NWP showing it getting cold after the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald Redux storm blows past on 12/24-25. Looking forward to some 50s on the warm side, too bad it'll be in a driving rain, if current GFS & EC are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 NWP showing it getting cold after the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald Redux storm blows past on 12/24-25. Looking forward to some 50s on the warm side, too bad it'll be in a driving rain, if current GFS & EC are correct. Holy bombs on GFS and Euro in that time period (nice reference by the way). Mega wind event for BUF if those come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Not sure what you're looking at but the period starting around the 24th is the advent of a major pattern change. It's fairly obvious on most models. NAO and AO are heading in the right direction for a much more blocky, amplified pattern. Stop being silly.Consider me shamed. Just trying to get someone to chime in on this forum! I was mostly speaking of the period leading directly to Christmas. I'm still a sucker for a nice white christmas as opposed to this cold muddy slop of this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Well, not to model hug a storm that's 6 days out, but I will. 12Z GFS looks a bit more optimistic for some wraparound snows on Xmas day after the big Edmund Fitzgerald blowtorch on the front end. So the White XMas hopes remain alive. Certainly some LES is possible somewhere if current modeling is near accurate. About the best we can hope for is that this system takes longer to wind up and go negative. When's the last time ALL NWP (edit: almost all...GGEM looks very diff) had anything dead right at 6-7 days? Of course, we could always get stuck right underneath the gyre, in a big gaping, occluded dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 18 GFS has 24-30 inches of snow across WNY. That model is almost as bad as the NAM. I am living with the Euro and its ensembles this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 18 GFS has 24-30 inches of snow across WNY. That model is almost as bad as the NAM. I am living with the Euro and its ensembles this year. Just saw 18Z GFS: LMFAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2014 Author Share Posted December 17, 2014 Just saw 18Z GFS: LMFAO I am pretty confident this is going to be a massive storm somewhere. Where the snow sets up won't be resolved until Sunday/Monday time period. It can be anywhere from Northern Michigan/WIsconsin to Albany NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I am pretty confident this is going to be a massive storm somewhere. Where the snow sets up won't be resolved until Sunday/Monday time period. It can be anywhere from Northern Michigan/WIsconsin to Albany NY. This looks like it will be a bomb and it'll be windy pretty much everywhere with a storm of that size and magnitude. There should be some crazy CAA on the western side of the low and I feel the best area of snow might still be in the UP of Michigan. I would love to be in Sault Ste. Marie for this one when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 This looks like it will be a bomb and it'll be windy pretty much everywhere with a storm of that size and magnitude. There should be some crazy CAA on the western side of the low and I feel the best area of snow might still be in the UP of Michigan. I would love to be in Sault Ste. Marie for this one when it comes to snow. Yeah, these systems are tricky. Sometimes here in WNY we want the storm system to go way northwest of us so that when the cold front goes through we get the Lake effect snow. The track of next weeks system is very much up in the air as the BUF NWS pointed out in their FD. But we sometimes get our biggest Lake events in scenarios where the low pressure heads northeast over Lake Superior and drags a cold front across our area. Many times we go from the 50s to 20s in a matter of hours with gusty W/SW winds. The Dec 2010 and Jan. 2014 had similar trajectories. Not saying this is going to happen with this one, but if we miss out on the synoptic side, the lake usually hits us harder than if we were on the colder side of the low and NW/W winds on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Also, Moderate sleet out there right now. Roads are completely covered and very slippery when I headed home from the gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Someones getting hit around Xmas. This storm has the chance to completely mess up holiday travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 I want the Euro to verify to get those Southwest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The atmosphere just looks pi$&@ed off on some of these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I want the Euro to verify to get those Southwest winds. If you do, perhaps a Christmas 2001 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Someones getting hit around Xmas. This storm has the chance to completely mess up holiday travel. Yes, I'm travelling from Toronto to Kitchener, Ontario on Christmas Eve. Half excited, half concerned about this storm threat as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 If you do, perhaps a Christmas 2001 redux? lol. no way. Nov 2014 tops that for me though. I lived in the heart of that right near the airport so had around 80 inches in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yes, I'm travelling from Toronto to Kitchener, Ontario on Christmas Eve. Half excited, half concerned about this storm threat as a result. How far is that drive on the norm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 The atmosphere just looks pi$&@ed off on some of these model runs. RAWR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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