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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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It's very nasty here. No plows have been by my house at all, there's about 6 inches of very wet snow in the road. I sure hope all the school busses are careful. Just read that 81 in closed south of Syracuse to at least Lafayette...they're working on more than a foot of snow down there. Thruway westbound was closed near Weedsport for a jack-knifed tractor trailer, but recently reopened. Travel advisories are being issued all over in this area, it's still coming down hard. There's a road out there behind the hedge!

 

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Look at that band of snow developing over ENY...come west with that!

 

 

Looks tasty! I wonder with that next slug and a bit of help from LO later tonight we might tack on another 4 to 8 on top of the 7 to 8 we got so far. I had an official measurement of 6" as of about 11:30 today. NAM had the right idea after all.

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Looks tasty! I wonder with that next slug and a bit of help from LO later tonight we might tack on another 4 to 8 on top of the 7 to 8 we got so far. I had an official measurement of 6" as of about 11:30 today. NAM had the right idea after all.

Indeed! The wait has been well worth it w/ this one. Was a tiny bit surprised PHX went in today, given the forecast, but OTOH, I think local mets by and large downplayed this event, just my perception. Certainly the expectation was for a let up or intermittent light/mod snow...but it's been #poundtown all day. Also, radar this a.m. didn't look all that impressive but it's really blossomed throughout the day.

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About 4 inches here, 350 feet above downtown Ithaca. It's been moderate to heavy ever since daybreak. We should make it to 8 inches pretty easily, as both the NAM and the RAP have steady snow until about 8 AM tomorrow morning. WNY looks like it's getting over a foot.

 

It's going to be fun this evening when that big, juicy blob over the Adirondacks and VT gets here.

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Point of reference....18z NAM sim. radar for 21z, has bottom edge of steady precip field about 30-40 miles further north than verification/current radar....meaning that precip comma head should start a bit earlier, and last a bit longer as it transverses the state from E to W....not sure what/if the impact will be on verifiable qpf vs. NAM prog.....

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Point of reference....18z NAM sim. radar for 21z, has bottom edge of steady precip field about 30-40 miles further north than verification/current radar....meaning that precip comma head should start a bit earlier, and last a bit longer as it transverses the state from E to W....not sure what/if the impact will be on verifiable qpf vs. NAM prog.....

NAM has definitely had trouble with the CCB precipitation in ENY.. precip totals are well exceeding model output so hopefully that translates west.

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NAM has definitely had trouble with the CCB precipitation in ENY.. precip totals are well exceeding model output so hopefully that translates west.

Indeed!  I just think the whole setup (i.e. closed/stacked LP, small impulses rotating around the system, reinvigorating the theta-e transport, etc.) just overwhelm the abilities of most models to resolve some of the finer details, morso than a nice clean negatively tilted, but progressive, longwave trough slamming through.

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Indeed!  I just think the whole setup (i.e. closed/stacked LP, small impulses rotating around the system, reinvigorating the theta-e transport, etc.) just overwhelm the abilities of most models to resolve some of the finer details, morso than a nice clean negatively tilted, but progressive, longwave trough slamming through.

That's what makes these types of setups so exciting. You know it's going to be fun when there's a 100 kt 300-hPa easterly jet streak developing over southern Quebec and a well-developed trowal.

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Measured 8.5" at 445...prob another 1" since then. Not bad.

Edit: just measured...6.5" since 8 am this morning (0.64" melted)....total is 9.5" thus far.

Edit Edit: I see BUF has finally caved and put up WSW's for Oswego County and the eastern Lake Ontario counties. Was curious that they went with Advisories but perhaps the bar is a bit higher across the river.

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Measured 8.5" at 445...prob another 1" since then. Not bad.

Edit: just measured...6.5" since 8 am this morning (0.64" melted)....total is 9.5" thus far.

Edit Edit: I see BUF has finally caved and put up WSW's for Oswego County and the eastern Lake Ontario counties. Was curious that they went with Advisories but perhaps the bar is a bit higher across the river.

Hey Brian, Not sure I called you by your first name before but noticed it off of George's posts. What a nice snowstorm! I think we end up with 15" to 20" by Friday morning if we can tack on another 6" or so tonight and then nickel/dime stuff thereafter. I am going to guess Phoenix runs a two hour delay tomorrow to dig out from round 2. I actually can't blame them for running normal schedule today with 3 to 6 forecasted by the locals.

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