BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Good evening all. Thought it was a good time to start a new thread with November coming up next week. Possible first snowflakes (Aside from the grauple a week ago) coming next weekend. To start this thread right I forgot to post some video I took of the March Blizzard last year. Enjoy! Driving in it Thunder-Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 REGARDLESS OF WHICH OF THE ABOVE YOU BELIEVE...THE FRIDAY-SATURDAYPERIOD SHOULD FEATURE AT LEAST A GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH AND/ORCHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MUCH COLDERAIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND WHATEVER SURFACE FEATURE EXISTS.THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST TRUE SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON FOR THEVAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS MORE THAN THAT ACROSS THENORTH COUNTRY SHOULD THE STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONSVERIFY...IN WHICH CASE A SOLID ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL WOULD BEPOSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA. WHILE IT`S STILL WAY TOO SOON AND THINGS AREWAY TOO UNCERTAIN TO EVEN MENTION THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO...THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMINGWEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Friday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 From the KBUF AFD: THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST ONFRIDAY...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE ITS ATTENDANTSFC LOW WILL TAKE THE UNUSUAL TRACK FROM LK HURON TO NORTHWEST PA.SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS AND LIFT PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXITREGION OF A 120KT H25 JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD COMBINE WITH A DEEPMOISTURE FIELD TO PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WHICH DURINGTHE MORNING COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW.AS THE VERY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TOVIRGINA FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THEMID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE INTI AL SFC LOW WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITYOVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FEED OF ATLANTICMOISTURE OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPEFLOW AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCESOME WET SNOW OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORELIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLYOVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It would be great to see the models continue the trend of a more amplified, negatively tilted UL trough this weekend, but the the 12z GFS has the main shortwave and embedded vort max digging too far south with much less phasing than in previous runs. We'll have to see if the EC picks up on this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 From the KBUF AFD: THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TAKE THE UNUSUAL TRACK FROM LK HURON TO NORTHWEST PA. SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS AND LIFT PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF A 120KT H25 JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD COMBINE WITH A DEEP MOISTURE FIELD TO PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WHICH DURING THE MORNING COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW. AS THE VERY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO VIRGINA FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE INTI AL SFC LOW WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME WET SNOW OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER. It would be great to see the models continue the trend of a more amplified, negatively tilted UL trough this weekend, but the the 12z GFS has the main shortwave and embedded vort max digging too far south with much less phasing than in previous runs. We'll have to see if the EC picks up on this as well. Welcome back. Definitely looks to be an elevation driven event as most early season storms are. I think we will have a better idea on how this is going to unfold by tomorrow night. 72 and sunny, feels great out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 28, 2014 Author Share Posted October 28, 2014 .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUR FIRST REAL SHOT OF WINTRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS AIRMASS COULD PRODUCE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO...OR BELOW FREEZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There are certainly some exciting solutions floating around for this weekend. Too soon to really say much, but things could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Av8r Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 There are certainly some exciting solutions floating around for this weekend. Too soon to really say much, but things could get interesting Any chances of snow in WNY in the lower elevations? Local forecasters are going with an all-rain solution at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 Any chances of snow in WNY in the lower elevations? Local forecasters are going with an all-rain solution at this juncture. Welcome to the forum! I don't think we will see much more than a few wet flakes at lower elevations Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Looks like Ontario's starting to turn over; Salmon are running... http://www.onthelake.net/fishing/turnover.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Had some wet flakes yesterday. Nothing was sticking though. Boston hills got a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Had some wet flakes yesterday. Nothing was sticking though. Boston hills got a coating. Man the models did a 0-100 change over the past couple of days in regards to the long range temps, i have a feeling we could be looking at yet another brutal winter based on the favorable OPI/SAI & SCE. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 Man the models did a 0-100 change over the past couple of days in regards to the long range temps, i have a feeling we could be looking at yet another brutal winter based on the favorable OPI/SAI & SCE. Your thoughts? Below normal temperatures (Not as extreme as last year) and Above average snowfall (I'm calling for 105 inches at KBuf). I've been following these topics to make these predictions. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-16 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44158-winter-2014-15-discussion/ http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43733-2014-2015-winter-outlooks-and-discussions/ Lots of good information on this forum. Love all the Mets analysis and conclusions based on the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Thought I would put together a list of Oct/Nov Lake effect events here in WNY from a friend over at Accuweather forums data-set. Halloween 1993, the most significant early season snowfalls for many places. Very elevation dependent. Reduced 9% November 24-26, 1950, "The Great Appalachian Storm". If you live anywhere in Ohio, Western PA, and SW NY, you should pray for a repeat of this storm. One of only 4 triple phasers confirmed. Snow records in my town are shot, so I had to estimate based on nearby totals, climo, and liquid. Reduced 9% November 2-5, 1966, minor, but long duration and very early season Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (48.52K) November 3, 1991, small accumulations, but short duration and very early season Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (46.44K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 November 5, 1982, brief, but very intense, 2nd highest early season storm in Buffalo (behind October 2006) Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (47.69K) October 1976, two very early mid month, significant snowfalls. Kicked off a historic winter and complimented a very cold October. Reduced 9% November 28-30, 1965, long duration event with high accumulations in the Boston Hills and the high population area around Erie, PA, extending inland to the Chautauqua Ridge/Sherman area. Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (50.4K) November 11-13, 1977, relatively quick, moderate, early season event, first significant snowfall of the winter. I forgot to turn off the #s layer, so sorry for the numbers. Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (54.62K) October 1925, unusually snowy October in the region, Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (47.37K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 November 8-9, 1933, first in a series of 3 snow storms during 11/1933 that produced near-record or record snowfall in the Southern Tier. These storms were pretty fascinating in that they all were particularly hard hitting in Jamestown. Snow records are scattered at this time, so I tried to gradient the best I could with climo (for all storms), Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (50.36K) November 10-11, 1933, second storm, unusual inland extent and snow in Niagara county, Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (50.14K) November 15-16, 1933, third storm, classic, early season elevation storm with Buffalo swing, Reduced 9% November 27-28, 1952, brief, intense Buffalo squall, Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (47.02K) November 20-22, 1957, textbook South Towns storm, quick and intense snow with a fairly long duration, daily totals in Elma were 2.5", 14.5", and 16.0". Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (48.8K) 700 x 500 (51.18K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Reduced 9% 700 x 500 (46.82K) Reduced 9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Recent Storms in Oct/Nov Lake Effect Summary - November 16-17, 2005 Lake Effect - November 24-25, 2005 Historic Lake Effect Snow Storm of October 12-13, 2006 Lake Effect Summary - November 6-7, 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Lake Effect Summary - November 9-10, 2008 Lake Effect Summary - November 16-19, 2008 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 30" (Ellicottville); Lake Ontario 28" (West Leyden) Lake Effect Summary - November 20-23, 2008 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 18" (Mayville); Lake Ontario 14" (West Monroe) Duration: 72 hours +/- Prime Feature: Marginal multi-faceted event. Lake Effect Summary - November 26-27, 2008 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 15" (Perrysburg); Lake Ontario 18" (Carthage) Duration: 36 hours +/- Prime Feature: Evolved from synoptic event, lake enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 Lake Effect Summary - November 26-27, 2010 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 10" (Attica); Lake Ontario 13" (Beaver Falls) Duration: 24 hours +/- Prime Feature: Marginal early season event, good eastward extent. Lake Effect Summary - November 17-18, 2011 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Ontario 12.5" (West Fulton, NY); Lake Erie 7.5" (Perry, NY) Duration: 24 hours +/- Prime feature: Very Cellular, Great Dendritic Snow Crystal Growth, Lightning and Thunder Lake Effect Summary - November 25-26, 2012 Maximum Snowfall: Lake Ontario 15" (Redfield); Lake Erie 7" (SE Buffalo) Duration: 30 hours +/- Prime feature: Marginal Early Season Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 So lake snow events are actually quite common in WNY and Upstate New York as we head from Mid November onwards. The possibility is definitely their for some big storms if conditions come together in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Av8r Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Some notable lake effect systems have definitely impacted WNY in past years during November. It's a time when the air temp can drop way below the lake water temperature a mile up. Based on what I'm seeing for next week though it does look like any lake effect would set up on a NW flow. Temps should be cold enough for some decent delta T's but fetch would be limited and accumulation would be hindered by temps at or above the freezing mark during daytime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 Some notable lake effect systems have definitely impacted WNY in past years during November. It's a time when the air temp can drop way below the lake water temperature a mile up. Based on what I'm seeing for next week though it does look like any lake effect would set up on a NW flow. Temps should be cold enough for some decent delta T's but fetch would be limited and accumulation would be hindered by temps at or above the freezing mark during daytime hours. Sounds about right. Haven't had time to look to much into the models yet. I will post a few long term model maps later tonight after I get back from the gym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 One thing is for sure. It's going to be downright cold here for at least the next two weeks. The GFS is much more progressive with the cold air than the EURO which locks us with negative departures for quite sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 So cold is virtually a sure thing aside of some moderation on a very nice Monday with some sun. Lakes will most likely have a response due to the cold air but not sure I see anything of serious note in terms of Lake Effect at least for the next week. Dry air/Shear looks high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 We would actually want the storm system around the 10-12th time period to go far northwest of the area so when that cold front comes through we can get a W/SW flow. (If you want snow for the area) We would warm up nicely and miss out on the synoptic system but set us up better for the Lake Effect. The latest GFS is much farther northwest with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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