Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 GFS is a bit different in terms of snow placement on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z pGFS Total snowfall through 60 hours. Usual caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 0z GGEM. Seems a touch more amped than its 12z run. It's a bad model though, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Timing the rain/snow line is going to be a little bit of a challenge given the sharp gradients/rapid advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 A little early still, but I'm thinking a quick inch or maybe two here before she shuts down pretty quickly late morning Mon. Some additional snow showers later in the day could add a little bit. System needs to slow down for anything more than that the way it looks to me. Amounts should go up pretty quickly as you head north into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Might be a new low in my weather board career, but I just saw WxBell has some Chinese model. The 12z run went deep. Not enough buns, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Might be a new low in my weather board career, but I just saw WxBell has some Chinese model. The 12z run went deep. Not enough buns, I know. cma 48.png cma 54.png Might as well have posted the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Might as well have posted the CRAS. I just looked...it's not as fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha^ GGEM does look a bit amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Remember when the Ukie was always good for a bomb? Not so much on tonight's run, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wind fields off the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Remember when the Ukie was always good for a bomb? Not so much on tonight's run, relatively speaking. uk 30.gif uk 36.gif I'm curious if LAF will go under 29" on the barometer. RGEM and GFS say yes (barely). Very hard to do here...hasn't happened at LAF in 40-45 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Expecting some tweaks yet to come given the delicacy involved but am increasingly liking the chances of getting a little measurable snow here. Not gonna amount to much and we'll probably sorta get split by highest impacts here with the greatest snow going north/west and the greatest wind potential being farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro much more impressive with snowfall this run Large 3-5" swath from northeast MO to Chicagoland and into srn WI. 6" bullseye near GBG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO is pretty far east with the low. 987mb in SW MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 EURO is pretty far east with the low. 987mb in SW MI. ecmwf_slp_precip_mw_6.png Just talking surface low, there's almost a 200 mile spread with the position between the NAM/RGEM and the ECMWF/GFS at 30 hours. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just talking surface low, there's almost a 200 mile spread with the position between the NAM/RGEM and the ECMWF/GFS at 30 hours. Yikes. Pretty crazy. 979mb is about the bottom on the EURO. What a nightmare for the regional offices to try to figure out! Snowfall track is similar to the GFS. This would be a rough rush hour around here. Wagons south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'd be pulling my hair out if I was at some of these NWS offices...like La Crosse...the model variance there in terms of sensible results is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I'd be pulling my hair out if I was at some of these NWS offices...like La Crosse...the model variance there in terms of sensible results is ridiculous. Yep like rolling the dice for them right now. Really impossible for them to put together a forecast that will satisfy the general public at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Little colder air and we got a monster. Thinkin 3"IMBY though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yep like rolling the dice for them right now. Really impossible for them to put together a forecast that will satisfy the general public at this point Have to steer towards the mean, like about 2-4", that way large error is much less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was the southern vort in Texas for the 0z sampling or still in Mexico ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 WRF models supporting a EURO/GFS type blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was the southern vort in Texas for the 0z sampling or still in Mexico ? Should've been Mexico. There's obs from MMAN (Monterrey) so that should've helped I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Should've been Mexico. There's obs from MMAN (Monterrey) so that should've helped I would think. Gotcha. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Pretty big difference still aloft between the 6z RAP and 0z NAM/GFS centered on 0z tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Gino sums it up nicely MONDAY ONWARD... STILL SEEING SOME NON-TRIVIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS MONDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THEIR TENDENCY TO STRUGGLE WITH PHASING SYSTEMS. ALL GUIDANCE SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA IS AN INCREASING LARGE CAMP OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LAGGING BEHIND AND ENHANCING ASCENT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THIS POINT THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/PARALLEL 13KM GFS ALL SHOWING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND KNOWN ISSUES GUIDANCE HAS WITH PHASING SYSTEMS LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BUT HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME AND CARRIED A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF QPF ENDS UP BEING IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT HAPPENS THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T FAVOR HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO SNOWFALL WITH DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER WARMER THAN -10C...RATHER LARGER AGGREGATE FLAKES WOULD BE FAVORED WITH A WETTER SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS. WILL BEGIN TO ADVERTISE THIS THREAT IN THE HWO BUT FAR TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Getting into nowcasting time now.. 9z RAP/HRRR seem to have best handle on sfc low placement right now. Guymon, OK in the OK PH had a sfc pressure of 992.9mb at 10z while the 6z NAM/GFS are too far north in western KS and weaker with the placement of the sfc low. The strongest p-falls are from LBB up through western OK/srn KS and the RAP/HRRR want to move the sfc low along/south of I-40 while the NAM/GFS move it along the KS/OK border. Going to be fun to watch this play out today in both the models and the real time analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Just catching up on the overnight model runs. NAM, canary in the coal mine again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Encouraging Euro run for northern IL in regards to snow. Power outages might become a pretty significant issue Monday as the rain quickly changes over to wet snow and sticks to everything. The strong winds and caking snow to power lines/trees should keep the power crews busy. The Dec '12 event resulted in significant power outages from a similar situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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