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November 22-25 Storm Discussion


Hoosier

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Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Got into the dry slot and then heights tank and heavy snows developed and moved ENE across the area 

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=2012&month=3&day=2&hour=8&minute=55

 

Yeah that was a fun one. 

 

We need this to slow up a little bit, or bomb a little sooner to maximize our time with the main deform band before it lifts more north.  As it stands now it looks like at the least a quick shot of heavy snow and strong winds.

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Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Got into the dry slot and then heights tank and heavy snows developed and moved ENE across the area

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=2012&month=3&day=2&hour=8&minute=55

That's a good comparison. RFD had 3" of snow in a few hours. The track is fairly similar too.

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One thing that needs to be ironed out is the placement of this feature.  It's not a big difference in location from the 18z run to 00z run but it will have an effect on how quickly this thing deepens.  Some models phase that with the other energy while the NAM really doesn't.

 

 

post-14-0-97221800-1416709225_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-48194400-1416709213_thumb.png

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One thing that needs to be ironed out is the placement of this feature.  It's not a big difference in location from the 18z run to 00z run but it will have an effect on how quickly this thing deepens.  Some models phase that with the other energy while the NAM really doesn't.

 

attachicon.gifnam_namer_027_500_vort_ht.png

attachicon.gifnam_namer_033_500_vort_ht.png

 

I've been watching that as well.  The NAM keeps it separate and tracks it to NYC.  The GFS turns it hard left up into the lakes and at least partially phases it with the northern energy.  The Euro also turns it up into the lakes, but still doesn't wrap the storm up as much as the GFS.

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I've been watching that as well.  The NAM keeps it separate and tracks it to NYC.  The GFS turns it hard left up into the lakes and at least partially phases it with the northern energy.

 

 

Unless something else supports it on these model runs, I'd be skeptical of the NAM solution just based on that.  Just taking a quick look, it appears that every other major model on the 12z cycle didn't do what the NAM is doing.

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Unless something else supports it on these model runs, I'd be skeptical of the NAM solution just based on that.  Just taking a quick look, it appears that every other major model on the 12z cycle didn't do what the NAM is doing.

 

On the other hand, some eyebrows have to be raised as well when the NAM is on the weaker side of the solutions (given its normal tendency to go buck wild with the intensity of these storms).

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Hopefully offices start hitting the wind potential hard if it looks like these deeper solutions are going to verify.  Between favorable diurnal timing and a strong CAA regime, it could get kinda wild.  At least the trees are largely void of leaves and whatever's left won't put up much resistance.

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