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November 22-25 Storm Discussion


Hoosier

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The 12z rgem phases early and revs the low up big time, 976 mb in nw Illinois... heavy def zone across eastern Iowa.  That would be great, but seems awfully ambitious.  The 12z GFS may be stronger than the NAM, but I doubt it's in the same ballpark as the rgem.

 

 

 

It's close pressure wise, though seems a little faster.  The 42 hour strength on the 12z GFS is 975 mb and the 48 hour strength on the RGEM is 973 mb, though they are in a similar location because of the timing differences.

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Earlier, I mentioned Detroit in regards to wind potential.  Here's the 00z GFS forecast sounding valid 18z Monday.  You have essentially dry adiabatic lapse rates tapping into 65 kts aloft with 60 kts as close as 900 mb.  We'll see if future runs hold but there would be a window of major gust potential if this is right.

 

attachicon.gif00_GFS_066_42_23,-83_33_skewt_ML.gif

 

And the fact that the city will be directly downwind of the SE flow off Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair (early on) will only enhance the wind potential...

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I like where you're sitting for a period of some good rippage and the cold air advects in Monday morning. 

 

 

Yeah it looks like much of northern IL could be in line for some brief rippage followed by a lot of snow shower activity.  This following 1"+ of rain makes it all the more interesting.

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Yeah it looks like much of northern IL could be in line for some brief rippage followed by a lot of snow shower activity.  This following 1"+ of rain makes it all the more interesting.

 

Was telling Joe the setup reminds me of 3/2/12, just without the big severe weather. Got into the dry slot and then heights tank and heavy snows developed and moved ENE across the area 

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=10&year=2012&month=3&day=2&hour=8&minute=55

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