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November 22-25 Storm Discussion


Hoosier

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Earlier, I mentioned Detroit in regards to wind potential.  Here's the 00z GFS forecast sounding valid 18z Monday.  You have essentially dry adiabatic lapse rates tapping into 65 kts aloft with 60 kts as close as 900 mb.  We'll see if future runs hold but there would be a window of major gust potential if this is right.

 

post-14-0-84030500-1416633153_thumb.gif

 

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seems silly to discredit all of tonight's runs as the WPC has done when there is likely some better sampling for tonight's suite....clearly the models are sniffing something out...we shall see what they say if the euro tags along

 

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID NOV 22/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...AN EVALUATION OF THE 00Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY
PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 00Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT ITS THEIR FORECASTS.


...INITIAL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MX...
...EVENTUAL NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROF LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
...POSITION OF MEAN TROF/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

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This morning, the 0.05" of freezing rain that fell on frozen ground created sidewalks that were literally unwalkable. I dont know how anyone stepped out their door lol.

 

A plane slid off the runway at DTW airport due to the ice, and as of 945 am no flights in or out of Detroit until further notice (which probably wont be long as the temp rises).

 

4161-800.jpg

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This morning, the 0.05" of freezing rain that fell on frozen ground created sidewalks that were literally unwalkable. I dont know how anyone stepped out their door lol.

 

A plane slid off the runway at DTW airport due to the ice, and as of 945 am no flights in or out of Detroit until further notice (which probably wont be long as the temp rises).

 

 

My kids are having fun with it sliding around.  Plus the snow has become good packing so they are making big snowmen!! :snowman:

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I was thinking if the track shifts west of where models had it last night, you'd probably bring the stronger core of winds aloft farther west over Lake Michigan on Monday.  It's going to be windy anyway but it would make things even more intense along the eastern shore, where they will feel the full effect of the W/SW flow coming off the lake.

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