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November 22-25 Storm Discussion


Hoosier

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18z GFS keeps the low bombing out to 971mb over lake superior, 970mb just into Canada, would be fun to see a sub 970 low this time of year. I'm kind of surprised in the difference in the models at < 72hrs out, GGEM and EURO show a much weaker low around 985 vs the GFS.

 

 

18z parallel GFS also deepens it very quickly...might even go sub 970 mb on there based on the rather large 972 mb isobar but hard to tell on the crappy NCEP graphics.

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Radar returns look showery so far.  Some of the short term/hi-res guidance is a little more bullish on freezing rain prospects here and I wouldn't be surprised if IND issues an advisory later.

 

It would surprise me. They issued an update to the afternoon discussion with concerns about moistening up enough for precip before temps get above freezing, basically shortening the the timeframe for zr.

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It would surprise me. They issued an update to the afternoon discussion with concerns about moistening up enough for precip before temps get above freezing, basically shortening the the timeframe for zr.

 

 

The thing I'm thinking though is that there will be some lag between 2m temps going above freezing and surfaces going above freezing, though maybe not as extreme as some of those occurrences last winter.  If we struggle to get precip then that would negate that lol.  We'll see I guess.

 

27/12 now

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The thing I'm thinking though is that there will be some lag between 2m temps going above freezing and surfaces going above freezing, though maybe not as extreme as some of those occurrences last winter.  If we struggle to get precip then that would negate that lol.  We'll see I guess.

 

27/12 now

 

Quite a bit warmer out that way. 19/12 at FWA. I think that they'll end up covering it with an SPS.

 

EDIT: Good point about 2m/surface temps. With a week of cold weather under our belts and not a fast 2m temperature rise, it might take awhile for the surface to warm.

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00z op GFS goes well below 970 mb (into the mid 960s so far...).

 

Look at the changes of the height field at 500mb at 54hrs. Not far off from a sneaky snow event the way the wave dives SE over the midwest from the nrn plains with strong height falls.

 

Sfc low starts bombing passing over Chicago. 6mb drop in 3hrs as it heads over Lake Michigan

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