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November 22-25 Storm Discussion


Hoosier

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The 12z run on October 25 did. 

 

Here's that old thread for anyone who wants to reminisce

 

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/239844-the-great-midwest-low-of-2010/

 

Just read through most of that.  Very interesting/fun read.  BTW, whatever happened to Turtle?  Posted a lot in that thread, and I don't think I've seen him on here in awhile.

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00z Euro fairly similar to previous runs.  Deepens low to upper 970s by the time it reaches the WI/IL border, and then settles to around 974 as it moves into the UP.  Large area of snow showers wrapping around the back side of it by Monday.

 

 

Pretty large area of 50 kt 850 mb winds still at 120 hours.  We'll have to see about mixing but taking a peek at GFS forecast soundings, it's suggesting decent mixing potential. 

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Light freezing rain looks possible in OH/IN on Saturday. Neither the NAM nor the GFS predict very much precipitation. NAM soundings for Fort Wayne show 30F surface, and saturated, above freezing at 850mb early Saturday.

 

Yeah, I was worrying about sl**t here, but it's looking more and more like a freezing rain to rain event. Fortunately, it should be a light icing. 

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"FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPS OF +3 TO +7 DEGREES DEVELOP ABOVE   A 1000-1500 FOOT LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE...MAKING   FREEZING RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SLEET THE LIKELY INITIAL   PRECIP TYPE."

^^ From LOT for Friday night. I don't think it will be much. Shouldn't be a big problem as it's going to start later at night and stop by early morning in the southern portions. 

12_NAM_042_41.57,-87.9_skewt_ML.gif

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^^ From LOT for Friday night. I don't think it will be much. Shouldn't be a big problem as it's going to start later at night and stop by early morning in the southern portions. 

12_NAM_042_41.57,-87.9_skewt_ML.gif

 

 

I agree...southerly low level flow is usually hostile for prolonged freezing rain but even minor amounts seem to cause an inordinate amount of problems on the roads.  There's been some model differences in just how quickly the surface warms but given the lack of replenishing cold/dry air feed in the low levels, I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the quicker side.

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There's been hints on some models of a wave swinging through the Ohio Valley as cold air tries to catch up with the precip.  The GGEM is perhaps the most striking example.

 

12z Euro has something similar to this, but verbatim...cold air lags just a bit too far behind the precipitation.

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I agree...southerly low level flow is usually hostile for prolonged freezing rain but even minor amounts seem to cause an inordinate amount of problems on the roads.  There's been some model differences in just how quickly the surface warms but given the lack of replenishing cold/dry air feed in the low levels, I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the quicker side.

Im with you. I see the surface temps warming quickly. 12Z NAM is the only one that is little slower to bring the temps back up

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How much snow cover is left down state from Sunday's wave?  It might be worth looking at how the various models are resolving that snow cover to then guess how they're handling 2 m temps for Friday night.  That said, I'm on board with everyone else for very light IP/ZR that's mostly a non-event.

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Looks like the lead energy is coming onshore in Cali this evening...should have solid sampling of that for tonight's 00Z model suite....

 

The northern stream vort comes on shore 12Z 22NOV...

 

I am not expecting much to change...just we should be ironing out some of the wobbles and strength differences moving forward I would imagine....especially Saturday morning ... fwiw

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Looks like the lead energy is coming onshore in Cali this evening...should have solid sampling of that for tonight's 00Z model suite....

 

The northern stream vort comes on shore 12Z 22NOV...

 

I am not expecting much to change...just we should be ironing out some of the wobbles and strength differences moving forward I would imagine....especially Saturday morning ... fwiw

 

 

12z might be better for the Cali wave as it may not be totally onshore at 00z.  Certainly will have at least partial sampling though.  After that it does the ol plunge into Mexico, which seemingly creates some wonky output on occasion...hopefully not this time.

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12z might be better for the Cali wave as it may not be totally onshore at 00z.  Certainly will have at least partial sampling though.  After that it does the ol plunge into Mexico, which seemingly creates some wonky output on occasion...hopefully not this time.

 

haha...so as the lead vort drifts down into mexico the northern stream vort comes on shore in the NW....oh well...again, should only lead to minor differences which shouldn't play a huge role in this particular setup

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Here's the latest special weather statement North and East Central IL

 

 

334 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014 /434 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...
BUT ONLY VERY SMALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES CAN
CREATE SLIPPERY AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR OVER A WEEK...GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY RISE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY
MORNING. BUT UNTIL BOTH AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING...ICY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANYONE TRAVELING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
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MAIN QUESTION WILL THEN BE HOW LONG DOES IT PERSIST. GROUND  SURFACES HAVE BEEN SUB FREEZING FOR OVER A WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS  MAYBE REACHING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FRIDAY. THUS IT WILL TAKE  SOME AMOUNT OF TIME FOR AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TO WARM  THESE COLDER SURFACES AND END FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.

^from LOT's AFD - This will be interesting to see how this plays out. After a week of subfreezing temps, it could take some time to warm up different types of surfaces.

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