Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM looks east through at 9hr. 990mb near LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM looks east through at 9hr. 990mb near LAF Comparing the 18z run to the 12z run... Broad low pressure...might be tough to figure out where the true center is at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Fairly impressive upper jet with northern IL sitting in the left exit region of the jet and pretty good jet coupling aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Geesh. NAM flips back, not nearly as much precip in the cold air as the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 18z NAM says i bust high 3 times before december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 impressive rain shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Well that didn't clear anything up! Relatively small area of snowfall in eastern WI. Let's see if the 4km keeps its beat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Geesh. NAM flips back, not nearly as much precip in the cold air as the 12z run As far as modeling has come, every once in a while it seems like you get one of these where it looks like it's going to be a struggle to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wind advisory here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Winter Weather Advisories for much of southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Interestingly, looks like MKX left Milwaukee out of the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Odd that MKX left the lakeside counties out. It's not like the winds will be onshore causing mixing issues. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014...LOW PRESSURE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....LOW PRESSURE THAT BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTHOURS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF WISCONSIN MONDAY. AS IT DOES SOCOLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON EVOLVING GUSTY WESTWINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREAWITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS ON WITH THEGUSTY WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Take it with a grain of salt but the def zone on the 18z RAP looks pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yep, the 18Z NAM looks awful for snow in places it just looked great for on the 12Z NAM. Somebody, please remind me of what this model is good for, besides getting headshakes of shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 DVN went with a WWA for 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOT went with a WWA as well, for the NW portions of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 LOT UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOTALS AND IF THIS WILL POSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING THE UPPER 40S/ARND 50. THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS AFTN HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL WISC SOUTHWEST THROUGH FAR EASTERN IOWA. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS OVERNIGHT UP A TAD...AND EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSISTENT UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK MON WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CWFA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SECONDARY ONE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WILL CONVERGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWFA ARND DAYBREAK...AND STEADILY SLIDE EAST THRU THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED WILL BE A SHARP THERMAL TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STEADILY FALL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/AFTN. SO THE DAY MAY START MILD...BUT BY MIDDAY THAT WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE THE CASE WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S. PRECIP WILL BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. AS THE SNOW BEGINS MIDDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THAT AT ONSET RATIOS WILL HOVER ARND 8:1 TO 9:1...THEN AS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN THOSE RATIOS SHUD STEADILY CLIMB TO 14:1-17:1 BY LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. COMPOUNDING THE SETUP WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS NEARING 30-35MPH. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD NEAR 1-2"/HR FOR A COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY BETWEEN 2-4PM CST AND MAINLY WEST OF A LASALLE TO CRYSTAL LAKE LINE. HAVE BUMPED SNOW TOTALS UP TO 2-4" AND COULD SEE IN PORTIONS OF WINNEBAGO COUNTY 3-5" CLOSER TO THE WISC STATELINE IN NORTHERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY. ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE...BUT EXPECTING MUCH LESS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH IN CHICAGO AND LESSER TOTALS FURTHER SOUTH. 500MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OVERHEAD MON EVE...AND WILL SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY PEEL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MON NGT...HOWEVER ENOUGH OMEGA/MOISTURE TO KEEP MENTION OF LGT SNOW SHOWERS MON NGT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 called it^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Interestingly, looks like MKX left Milwaukee out of the advisory. Odd that MKX left the lakeside counties out. It's not like the winds will be onshore causing mixing issues. warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wondering if a short jaunt to Chesterton tomorrow is going to be a good idea..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 warm tongue Yeah, maybe that's it. It will take a little longer to change over there though most solutions still give them decent amounts verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 MKX must going with the 12z GFS screw hole for MKE. Snowfall map below...looks like a wall. Poor BowMe. Yes I know, it's probably a software glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Haha, Chicago Wx. So, is it safe for us to say that the 18Z NAM is currently the furthest North with the heaviest snow? I know it's not all a matter of latitude, but also how quickly the cold air gets wrapped into the system and changes the rain over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Yeah, maybe that's it. It will take a little longer to change over there though most solutions still give them decent amounts verbatim. As the low moves away it will pull the warm tongue away with it. I do expect less amounts further east, but I still thought it was/is advisory worthy in far eastern WI, especially when factoring in the timing and wind. Actually there is an advisory this far east. ILZ005-006-012-240530-/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0027.141124T2100Z-141125T0600Z/MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA326 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHTCST MONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM3 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT.* TIMING...MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF A HARVARD TO WAUKEGAN LINE.* WINDS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH.* IMPACT...AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADWAYS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 High wind watch for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 High Wind Warning for all of CLE area, now DTX area too. Forecast soundings show 60 kt at 925 mb, as cold advection is increasing tomorrow (36 hr GFS forecast sounding for Cleveland). I suppose a few 50 kt wind gusts could affect Cleveland, Toledo metro areas. I wouldn't be suprised by 60 kt gusts in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 low track matters….exceptions happen but overhead tends not to work out too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 MKX must going with the 12z GFS screw hole for MKE. Snowfall map below...looks like a wall. Poor BowMe. mke screw hole.png Yes I know, it's probably a software glitch. That glitch tends to be there with some of the GFS snowfall maps I notice, that said I'm glad they're being cautious rather than run out with a WWA right away for everyone and possibly end up busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seeing the 18z runs make me glad I stuck with 1-2" call. May end on the low end of that if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That glitch tends to be there with some of the GFS snowfall maps I notice, that said I'm glad they're being cautious rather than run out with a WWA right away for everyone and possibly end up busting. Lol, MKX better not look at the 18z GFS snow map then, has around 4" for them. These models runs are bouncing around so much at such a short range it's pretty comical, somebody somewhere will get 4-6" snow though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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