Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z euro looks reasonable and it's still the best model by a mile strip of 2-4" from cyclone northeast through RFD to MKE It's been flip flopping on the details almost as bad as everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's been flip flopping on the details almost as bad as everything else. lol yep it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Alright. Sometimes it is hard to sift through different types of discussions. Some like talking about the severe aspects, others the wind, others the snow, etc... I am a winter weather man, so that is the part I'm interested in discussing. I've had that conversation on here in the past, but sort of get yelled at or mocked for even trying to have a separate thread for winter weather. Ah, well. I guess that's the way this board runs. I was checking out webcams for up da U.P. and it looks like this system is even causing a lot of ugly slop up there too. Each situation is different but in this case, we have a non-existent severe threat in this region, rains that don't look to get too out of hand, some snow and strong winds. If this was a huge snowstorm with the thread moving a mile per minute, then splitting off a thread for snow might've made more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 lol yep it has. qpf field looks displaced too far SE closer to the low track on the GFS et al either way, we'll see a brief wet plaster. LOT probably goes with a WWA for the NW CWA before too long here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Each situation is different but in this case, we have a non-existent severe threat in this region, rains that don't look to get too out of hand, some snow and strong winds. If this was a huge snowstorm with the thread moving a mile per minute, then splitting off a thread for snow might've made more sense. Thanks for the explanation, Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 qpf field looks displaced too far SE closer to the low track on the GFS et al either way, we'll see a brief wet plaster. LOT probably goes with a WWA for the NW CWA before too long here Eh we'll see. Not your typical setup to me, trowal like feature being enhanced well SW of the sfc low by secondary wave dropping in on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Funny, 5 days ago everyone was interested in the wind or pressure gradient, now that the event is upon us... as goes AmWx, we are now all trying to figure out where the thin band of snow ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Eh we'll see. Not your typical setup to me, trowal like feature being enhanced well SW of the sfc low by secondary wave dropping in on the backside. yeah, i'm not taking it to the bank clock or anything just a hunch (and i'm sure my bias against wrap around changeover events is playing in here) hopefully we get some clarity with the next model cycle now that cyclogenesis is underway in ernest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Funny, 5 days ago everyone was interested in the wind or pressure gradient, now that the event is upon us... as goes AmWx, we are now all trying to figure out where the thin band of snow ends up. winds look zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 November barometric pressure records across the area. Some of these most likely won't be in play but wanted to create a list that included many places to account for changes in track/strength Bumping this from the other day... it looks like most of these will be out of reach barring quicker strengthening than expected. The records with a better chance of being approached or broken would appear to be toward the bottom of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yeah, i'm not taking it to the bank clock or anything just a hunch (and i'm sure my bias against wrap around changeover events is playing in here) hopefully we get some clarity with the next model cycle now that cyclogenesis is underway in ernest Sfc low is on the southern end of guidance being at 992mb in central/eastern OK along I-40 and these p-falls would argue the eastern side of guidance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 yeah, i'm not taking it to the bank clock or anything just a hunch (and i'm sure my bias against wrap around changeover events is playing in here) hopefully we get some clarity with the next model cycle now that cyclogenesis is underway in ernest Wrap around events don't seem to be very impressive in the Wisconsin/Michigan/Illinois part of the Great Lakes Region. When I lived in Western PA, they could get some of their best snows from them. There was a nice one around the holidays a couple years ago though. If I recall, sort of a similar setup to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Sfc low is on the southern end of guidance being at 992mb in central/eastern OK along I-40 and these p-falls would argue the eastern side of guidance IMO US.pfalls.20141123.19.gif I'm sure you know this but you have to be careful with snapshot images of pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 side note: why do i even bother turning on the bears, talk about zzzzz stratiform rains about to commence. gotta admit, nice to have an event to track and kick off the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wrap around events don't seem to be very impressive in the Wisconsin/Michigan/Illinois part of the Great Lakes Region. When I lived in Western PA, they could get some of their best snows from them. There was a nice one around the holidays a couple years ago though. If I recall, sort of a similar setup to this? i think the best analog to this has already been mentioned a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 just spent 10 minutes getting all my winter weather bookmarks in order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 i think the best analog to this has already been mentioned a few pages back. Are you being a smart a-l-e-k here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 FWIW 18z RAP which has good handle on current sfc low position takes the low north of LAF to SBN to GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Are you being a smart a-l-e-k here? are you new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 side note: why do i even bother turning on the bears, talk about zzzzz stratiform rains about to commence. gotta admit, nice to have an event to track and kick off the season Media going to have a field day is Bears lose to Lovie and Joshy footbal Agreed, so nice having so many winter tabs open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Torching away right now at a balmy 52*F. But in typical late November fashion, we'll be back into the cold/dry-ish pattern soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 are you new? That answers my question... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 i'm settling in for the evening…gonna make some posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was going to stream the Lions at work today, then saw the score and figured it wasn't worth the 1gb worth of Verizon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z SREF mean came in more juiced and SE compared to 9z.. plumes mean for ORD just under 4" and 5" for DKB now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I was going to stream the Lions at work today, then saw the score and figured it wasn't worth the 1gb worth of Verizon data. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 As someone pointed out earlier...evening commute in LOT looks to be rather adversely effected tomorrow evening... 15Z JOT plumes for my neck of the woods with a 3 inch mean.... a 4 pack cluster around 1 inch... a 6 pack cluster between 4 and 5 inches... might have to up my thoughts on 2 inches in the air and 1 inch of accums locally here.....maybe double each category Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was just about to say that about the SREF's. Really rising now. Mean: 5.9" out at SQI, and 5.6" at DVN by Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 the run 2 run changes already apparent by 3z Monday on the NAM 12/18z aren't instilling much confidence either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Wow, looks great for you guys, Geos. We won't get as much here, unless there's more after this. Probably some lake effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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