DAFF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Looks to be a all rain event for DTX... Perhaps a refreeze on the back side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It's funny how after wisconsinwx did all of that whining in the complaint thread, he may end up get a solid snowstorm out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 snippet from our friend Joe Bastardi Chicago looks like mid point of nice 2-4 inch wind whipped backlash snow tomorrow for midwest. Warmup.. countered by snow. Sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Was this the event that was blizzard warned that busted hard in LOT cwa? All theae rain to snow events run together in my mind: Regardless, these never seem to go as modeled, so I am figuring I will likely see mood flakes with maybe a quick hitting inch. Yeah the low ended up tracking right up over Chicago IIRC. This has been a pretty tricky system for the models so far, due to the phasing etc. The 00z Euro changed quite a bit with today's rainfall compared to numerous runs that looked pretty similar. That was sort of a last second change, so even though we're less than 24hrs from the event I'm still not very confident. Gonna keep riding my 1-2" call for here, but may have to bump it up a bit if we continue to see similar runs to the NAM/00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 rain to snow wrap around events have a long history of underperforming, especially on the heels of heavy rain i'd temper expectations for anything more than an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 rain to snow wrap around events have a long history of underperforming, especially on the heels of heavy rain i'd temper expectations for anything more than an inch or two I think maybe 2 inches fall and an inch or so accumulates....for mby at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 rain to snow wrap around events have a long history of underperforming, especially on the heels of heavy rain i'd temper expectations for anything more than an inch or two Yeah it's best to stay a little conservative with these type of events. Always tricky up until the 11th hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 not too shabby... That's pretty sweet looking! First wave of -RN went through. Now just a few sprinkles. This is what the EURO control run showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Geos, looking forward to the 12z run and its simulated radar that will be out in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Temperature profiles look pretty decent on the 00z GFS...waiting impatiently for 12z text soundings. The warm layer is only between the surface and 925 mb. Classic case of where it could be 38 degrees and heavy snow, but not sure if that bodes well for sticking to anything but grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Geos, looking forward to the 12z run and its simulated radar that will be out in a couple hours. It has been entertaining how the models were all over the place this time yesterday and now they're all coming together. Close up maps of what the 4km NAM showed. It would be awesome if somehow Cyclone could pull off a 6" snowfall from this... in November of all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 rain to snow wrap around events have a long history of underperforming, especially on the heels of heavy rain i'd temper expectations for anything more than an inch or two I would be careful too and be guarded in expectations. Can this system surprise the Chicago area with a good hit, it is possible. At this point I would have an expectation of 2" at this point and if anything higher comes consider it bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Cool to loop the surface maps of various models. The pressure pattern gets elongated from north-south almost to the point where there's multiple surface lows rather than one stronger consolidated one. Lots of moving parts as was said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It will be interesting to see the freezing line march in from the south and west vs. north and west for this system. For example... western and southwest suburbs of Chicago will be ripping snow before Milwaukee will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 Merged blackrock's thread. Keep all posts regarding this storm in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 It will be interesting to see the freezing line march in from the south and west vs. north and west for this system. For example... western and southwest suburbs of Chicago will be ripping snow before Milwaukee will be. hires_t2m_chicago_33.png hires_ref_chicago_33.png Yep, but the models linger the snow up here longer, so it's more due to the low movement and the almost south to north movement of the defo zone than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 A close-up centered on Chicago with the 12z GFS run. 2m temp, 850 temp, and precip panels for hours 30, 36, and 42. Hour 30 Hour 36 Hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man, these models are struggling. More changes on the 12z Euro. Parts of NC Wisconsin were high and dry on the 0z run...and are now getting a good hit of snow with the 12z run. Overall, the snow field has moved NW. Still some Chicago love, but western/northwest suburbs are better. EDIT: GRB went from under an inch on the 0z run to 6"+ on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Man, these models are struggling. More changes on the 12z Euro. Parts of NC Wisconsin were high and dry on the 0z run...and are now getting a good hit of snow with the 12z run. Overall, the snow field has moved NW. Still some Chicago love, but western/northwest suburbs are better. EDIT: GRB went from under an inch on the 0z run to 6"+ on the 12z run. Seeing a NW outlier is ok, it was a tad concerning if all the models continued to shift SE. Time to factor in the hi-res models first and foremost anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Seeing a NW outlier is ok, it was a tad concerning if all the models continued to shift SE. Time to factor in the hi-res models first and foremost anyway. Still a lot changes for the high res models to pick up on. Might struggle more then usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Still a lot changes for the high res models to pick up on. Might struggle more then usual I'm sure they will, but the global models will to an even greater extent, hence you get the Euro flip flopping on placement pretty much every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 wrf still showing some high country enhancement.. hoping to cash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2014 Author Share Posted November 23, 2014 After reviewing 12z models, I'm thinking we will have wind gusts of 40-45 mph here tomorrow with some potential for a window of gusts near 50 mph. Best timeframe should be roughly mid-morning until early evening. Farther east still looks worse unless mixing/momentum transfer is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z EURO maps. The track is similar to the 0z, but the amount of phasing is different on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That's a nice map, Bo. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens. btw, I missed the discussion on getting rid of the other thread. I'm sure it was filled with the few board nazis on here who always rant until they get their own way. Sorry it was such a thorn on the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 That's a nice map, Bo. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens. btw, I missed the discussion on getting rid of the other thread. I'm sure it was filled with the few board nazis on here who always rant until they get their own way. Sorry it was such a thorn on the thread. thx man, I have a buddy that runs them for me. I think it was just a way to consolidate all the talk into one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I like that EURO run for here. Nice. People are already discussing school closures around here for Tuesday. Talk about wishful thinking for early vacations. I think after last winter, people who "snow closures" on the mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 15z RAP gets it to 978mb north of GRR at 9z tomorrow The track is east of the NAM/GFS and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 thx man, I have a buddy that runs them for me. I think it was just a way to consolidate all the talk into one thread. Alright. Sometimes it is hard to sift through different types of discussions. Some like talking about the severe aspects, others the wind, others the snow, etc... I am a winter weather man, so that is the part I'm interested in discussing. I've had that conversation on here in the past, but sort of get yelled at or mocked for even trying to have a separate thread for winter weather. Ah, well. I guess that's the way this board runs. I was checking out webcams for up da U.P. and it looks like this system is even causing a lot of ugly slop up there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z euro looks reasonable and it's still the best model by a mile strip of 2-4" from cyclone northeast through RFD to MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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