Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

November 22-25 Storm Discussion


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

We have some consensus for a rapidly deepening low pressure, possibly sub 980 mb.  This looks to bring a variety of conditions to the region although no particular weather aspect looks extreme at this point.  We can keep this a general thread for now to cover all parts of the storm and if one thing starts to look like it will be more of an impact (snow or severe) then we can split off. 

 

The Friday night/Saturday mixed precip disco can go here since it's the beginning stages of the bigger event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 596
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That lead s/w is really doing more harm than good at this point, sucking a lot of the moisture away from the phase/rapid deepening of the low.

 

 

Warm sector looks kinda junky.  If any severe threat does materialize then it would probably be closer to the OH River.  I think if temps/dews could get into the upper 50s or so, it would be enough for a respectable threat given the dynamics in play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

cool thanks....not really the most important thing in the world....just would be fun to see if we can get it sub 970

 

 

2 or 3 GFS ensemble members do that.  Considering we are dealing with a pronounced negatively tilted system, I wouldn't be surprised if 1) the track creeps west of where most models have it and 2) it deepens on the quicker side of guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT mentioning possible problems with icing Friday night....then some possible hydro issues sunday with frozen grounds and 1 to 2 inches of liquid QPF...

From LOT for Friday afternoon/evening   

 

 

"SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP WARM LAYER SO  

WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET...BULK OF PRECIP  

SHOULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN."  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm reminds me of the Octobomb in 2010 (got down to 955mb in MN), I remember tracking that, the last few days it kept getting a better phase and lower pressure / more NW track on the models. Will be interesting to see what this one does :D

 

 

Was trying to remember what the models had in the days leading up to that.  I found the old thread at Easternuswx and it looks like models had it in the mid 960s to low 970s a few days out, and it verified at 955 mb as you said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was trying to remember what the models had in the days leading up to that.  I found the old thread at Easternuswx and it looks like models had it in the mid 960s to low 970s a few days out, and it verified at 955 mb as you said.

 

Was probably my favorite no snow pure windstorm I ever experienced, was on vacation in the eastern UP when it hit at a casino resort, the squall line along the cold front came thru with 70mph wind gusts and a few thunders, and was blowing tiles off the roof, I still have some roof tiles from that in my room as a storm trophy, was like a mini-hurricane lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously it will change and this is more a reservation of the fact the pattern is so volatile but the Euro ensemble control also has a sub 980mb low into northern IL at day 14-15. If this is the pattern we will have this winter with potent systems coming through every week I will take it and bank on my eventual bomb locally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was trying to remember what the models had in the days leading up to that.  I found the old thread at Easternuswx and it looks like models had it in the mid 960s to low 970s a few days out, and it verified at 955 mb as you said.

 

 

IIRC the RGEM cranked it down to the mid 950s a few days out and was pretty consistent with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...