The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's pouring moderate snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I don't know if stats bear this out but from my personal observation, the Euro can run a bit dry at times. OTOH, when it's wetter than other models, take that into strong consideration as it's not as prone to putting out huge qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 If I had to use only one model to base a forecast on in the short/medium range, it's no doubt going to be the Euro. That being said, there's not an OP model out there that's nails 6+ days out. Accuracy scores certainly tell the tale there. Anywho, occasional mood flakes continue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 A good consistent light snow starting here. A bit late to the game but gonna go with 3.2" IMBY through Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 real high end -SN with large puffballs Should make for a scenic start to the Bears game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Snowing, but not much sticking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's already a failure for here because it's showing measurable precip for LAF in the next couple of hours...only thing accumulating here is overcast...but here's the 17z HRRR total run QPF. Buyer beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Flakes falling here now 20 miles E of MIE. Shouldn't call them flakes more like clusters of smaller flakes, kinda strange looking, but a decent -SN for about the last 30 min. Not sticking yet, ground temps just above freezing, 33 by my measurement 2 inches deep. Thats going to change quick though I believe. Radar showing a decent band setting up from about my area SW all the way to just north of Terre Haute. Last winter was my first full winter after 25 years in the SE, I might be ready for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 A few nice fat snowflakes are just starting to commence here at Fortville ne of Indpls. at 2 p.m. EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 This little band may have been just enough to cool the ground temps, starting to stick on the grass and trees. This mornings update from KIND 1430Z UPDATE...GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS WITH THIS LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. AND THE BAD NEWS IS THAT YES...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK FOR ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. IN ALL SERIOUSNESS...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPS/DEW POINTS/POPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 It's already a failure for here because it's showing measurable precip for LAF in the next couple of hours...only thing accumulating here is overcast...but here's the 17z HRRR total run QPF. Buyer beware. 11:16 17z HRRR precip.png i dont know if this means anything, but I have noticed in previous winters that the HRRR distinctly runs ahead. Meaning, it will show snow starting at say 1pm when it really doesnt start til 2 or 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Oh, ILN...This the current Watch/Warning/Advisory map and the snow totals listed in their WSW and WWAs... Realistically could have been handled by a broad brush advisory. The wording is almost identical, but I guess because of a slightly shorter time for snow in the warning area, they went with a warning. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You would think the advisory vs. winter storm warning criteria would be similar in these areas, or have a gradient north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Radar returns blossoming in the LAF area and some better banding about to move in. LAF at 33 but I would expect a slight fall back pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Got about 2" of wet snow. Light snow now. Roads are covered as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Terre Haute down to 1/2 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Snowing nicely here now and the temp has fallen to 31 at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Snowing nicely here now and the temp has fallen to 31 at LAF. Starting to stick to the grass now. Time to make some hay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Starting to stick to the grass now. Time to make some hay. What's KTIM reading, 38 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 What's KTIM reading, 38 degrees? 33.3˚, but falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 33.3˚, but falling. Checking area radars, some of the better banding looks like it may align somewhat farther north at least in the short term. Upstream radar actually looks pretty good when extrapolating into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. You would think the advisory vs. winter storm warning criteria would be similar in these areas, or have a gradient north to south Agreed, however: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/criteria/winter.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Checking area radars, some of the better banding looks like it may align somewhat farther north at least in the short term. Upstream radar actually looks pretty good when extrapolating into our area. Looks ok to our west on the ILX radar, but man...not much margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Interesting that the 18z GFS appears to have nudged NW, with 0.25"+ now creeping into Monroe & SE Wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 LAF reporting mod snow, but just high end flurries here at my place. Hmmm, but these types of gradients like to happen around here. SPECI KLAF 162142Z 19003KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN006 OVC011 M01/M01 A3002 RMK AO2 P0002 T10111011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 IND on the board with measurable snow for this event. METAR KIND 162154Z 00000KT 3/4SM R05L/5000V5500FT -SN BR VV017 M01/M02 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP170 SNINCR 1/1 P0003 T10061017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Its been spitting flurries for about an hour now very light snow has begun. Thinking 2" is definitely doable by morning. Love the first blanket of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Kinda OT: Anybody have any thoughts about how the PGFS has been doing so far this season? Anybody have a free link to PGFS data? I haven't really been following it, and I am kind of excited the GFS will be upgraded to a "hi-res" 13km model on Dec 17th when it replaces the current GFS (last date i heard about the transition anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 rather be lucky than good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Kinda OT: Anybody have any thoughts about how the PGFS has been doing so far this season? Anybody have a free link to PGFS data? I haven't really been following it, and I am kind of excited the GFS will be upgraded to a "hi-res" 13km model on Dec 17th when it replaces the current GFS (last date i heard about the transition anyways). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2014 Author Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just went out and measured 1.1" on my board. My first bust of the season...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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