Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

November 16-17 Snowfall Event


Chicago WX

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I will lol...pull the force NW!

Its funny if we somehow miss BOTH tonight and tomorrow nights synoptic events, but still get all the lake effect this week, we could have above normal snow in Nov with no synoptic snow :lol:. Of course...lets hope thats not the case. NORTHWEST!

DTX not counting it out yet...

"DEEP LAYER

MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE

ENHANCED FGEN WILL SUPPORT A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP PRECIP JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST

AREA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THE 700-500MB PORTION OF THE

FRONT WILL BE ACTIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS

THE EASTERN HALF OF SE MI LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MON. THE

POOR SAMPLING OF THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER N CNTL CANADA DOES LEAD TO

SOME DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. IT CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE

THAT THE DEEPENING UPPER WAVE MAY PULL THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND

ESTABLISH SOME GOOD FGEN FARTHER WEST...WHICH SUPPORTS HOLDING

CHANCE POPS ACROSS SE MI ATTM."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little less concerned about that northern edge now.  Would be nice to see some of the holdout models bump things up though.

 

0z GFS bumped us up to around 0.10" precip. So I guess that's good. :lol:

 

0z RGEM somewhere in the 0.10-0.20" neighborhood. Not much, but an improvement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, ILN...This the current Watch/Warning/Advisory map and the snow totals listed in their WSW and WWAs...

 

post-384-0-87907800-1416142369_thumb.jpg

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

NOON EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING.

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON

EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST MONDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF MONDAY MORNING.

 

Realistically could have been handled by a broad brush advisory. The wording is almost identical, but I guess because of a slightly shorter time for snow in the warning area, they went with a warning.

 

:arrowhead:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a little tempered versus some model guidance, but I think the timing of the snowfall today may initially waste some accumulation due to somewhat marginal surface temps. And the 0z Euro took a good step back in snow totals as well...sometimes a red flag of sorts. Anyways, put them all in a blender...and here's my final call for a couple of Indiana cities.

 

FWA: 1.5-2.0"

IND: 2.0-2.5"

LAF: 0.5-1.0"

MIE: 2.5-3.0"

OKK: 1.5-2.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a little tempered versus some model guidance, but I think the timing of the snowfall today may initially waste some accumulation due to somewhat marginal surface temps. And the 0z Euro took a good step back in snow totals as well...sometimes a red flag of sorts. Anyways, put them all in a blender...and here's my final call for a couple of Indiana cities.

 

FWA: 1.5-2.0"

IND: 2.0-2.5"

LAF: 0.5-1.0"

MIE: 2.5-3.0"

OKK: 1.5-2.0"

The 00z Euro only had like 0.05" qpf for DTW, all other models, including the latest short term ones, are holding firm between 0.10-0.20" (most around 0.15"). The Euro's days as king are LONG over. Whats more, its run to run forecast changes more than the GFS now it seems :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00z Euro only had like 0.05" qpf for DTW, all other models, including the latest short term ones, are holding firm between 0.10-0.20" (most around 0.15"). The Euro's days as king are LONG over. Whats more, its run to run forecast changes more than the GFS now it seems :lol:

 

 

the euro still rules…it sucked for like a month last winter and then regained the crown

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...