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November 16-17 Snowfall Event


Chicago WX

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Certainly this won't be a major event, but considering it's mid-November...I think it's note-worthy enough to deserve it's own thread. Looks like a decent bet that parts of MO, IL, IN, MI, and OH will get their first "widespread" 1"+ snowfall. The Euro and NAM have been the most bullish so far, while the GFS and Canadians are a little more subdued. 

 

We'll go with the 12z 4km NAM weenie maps to kick things off. Do note that these are 60 hour totals, and some of it is from tonight/early tomorrow. 

 

"Centered over St. Louis map"

 

"Centered over Indianapolis map"

 

"Centered over Cincinnati map"

 

"Centered over Cleveland map"

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lol so after the models had been persistent ALL week with about 0.04-0.08" qpf for tonight we now look to get nothing, and yet tomorrow nights storm all of a sudden may clip us with snow.

 

Pretty much the same here. :lol: I guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

12z GFS taking a step N/NW, but still not as far as the good old NAM. 

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IND doesn't do November snow very well.  Believe it or not, the last time there was at least an inch was all the way back on November 15-16, 1997 when 2.5" fell.

 

Last time that various amounts fell in a November storm:

 

2":  11/15-11/16, 1997

3":  11/13/1997

4":  11/25-11/26, 1975

 

More time has gone by since IND has had a November snowfall over 4" than an October snowfall over 4"... the October one being the infamous 1989 event.

 

 

Edit:  based on maps, that 1975 thing actually looks like it may have been two separate storms on back to back days.

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IND doesn't do November snow very well.  Believe it or not, the last time there was at least an inch was all the way back on November 15-16, 1997 when 2.5" fell.

 

Last time that various amounts fell in a November storm:

 

2":  11/15-11/16, 1997

3":  11/13/1997

4":  11/25-11/26, 1975

 

More time has gone by since IND has had a November snowfall over 4" than an October snowfall over 4"... the October one being the infamous 1989 event.

 

 

Edit:  based on maps, that 1975 thing actually looks like it may have been two separate storms on back to back days.

It must have been two events. DTW got 5.2" on Nov 26/27, 1975 (and 1.2" on Nov 24/25 but there was rain also).

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Yep. Something like 1.0-1.5" for you. Turn on those magnets. :guitar:

I will lol...pull the force NW!

Its funny if we somehow miss BOTH tonight and tomorrow nights synoptic events, but still get all the lake effect this week, we could have above normal snow in Nov with no synoptic snow :lol:. Of course...lets hope thats not the case. NORTHWEST!

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Most of the clunkers are right around an 1/2 to an inch...so that's not bad. 

 

At this point, I'm really just hoping for something measurable that's over 0.5".

 

I'm just looking for something measurable period. (See sig). Models have continuously had FWA in no man's land between two waves. I'll wave at the first one as goes by to the north and wave to the second one as it passes to the south. :lol::axe:

 

EDIT: Yeah, I know, complaint thread, but I just had to.

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I'm just looking for something measurable period. (See sig). Models have continuously had FWA in no man's land between two waves. I'll wave at the first one as goes by to the north and wave to the second one as it passes to the south. :lol::axe:

 

Join me in rooting for the 18z NAM. :guitar:

 

Which is weird, because I'm used to trying to fight off the NAM's NW "advances".

 

Total QPF through 12z Monday. Nice Alek sucker hole, BTW.

 

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I'm just looking for something measurable period. (See sig). Models have continuously had FWA in no man's land between two waves. I'll wave at the first one as goes by to the north and wave to the second one as it passes to the south. :lol::axe:

 

EDIT: Yeah, I know, complaint thread, but I just had to.

 

 

Trends looking better there...optimism.  :)

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I'm just hoping for an inch to inch and a half here in Central MI, as the first part of the storm fizzles and dies right over Michigan, most of what the models are showing is lake enhancement that never really reaches my area much. You guys in IN/OH look good for 2" or so though with the second part of the system. Maybe extreme north kentucky gets their kentuckaggedon 3" lol.

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IND makes my call for LAF look optimistic. Just chance POPs.  :(

 

TIPPECANOE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE
403 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS AROUND 19. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH. 

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Ill take it:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  400 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY  MONDAY MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A ANDERSON TO  INDIANAPOLIS AND SULLIVAN LINE...    INZ040>042-047>049-053>057-060>065-067>072-160500-  /O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0014.141117T0000Z-141117T1400Z/  MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-OWEN-MORGAN-  JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-  DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...  SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...  SEYMOUR  400 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST  MONDAY...    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER  WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY  TO 9 AM EST MONDAY.    * MAIN IMPACT:ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW     MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...:    * ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST    SECTIONS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM VINCENNES TO    INDIANA POLS AND ANDERSON. LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS    FATHER WEST.    * TIMING: MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SNOW MAY LATE SUNDAY    AFTERNOON AND LAST TO MID MORNING ON MONDAY IN SOME AREAS.    * OTHER IMPACTS: IT WILL TURN COLDER MONDAY AND WIND CHILLS IN THE    SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BLOWING AND    DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY.    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW  WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW  COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE  DRIVING.    
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I'm just hoping for an inch to inch and a half here in Central MI, as the first part of the storm fizzles and dies right over Michigan, most of what the models are showing is lake enhancement that never really reaches my area much. You guys in IN/OH look good for 2" or so though with the second part of the system. Maybe extreme north kentucky gets their kentuckaggedon 3" lol.

 

I would hate to live near Mt. Pleasant/Alma areas. You guys don't get lake effect stuff from L. Michigan or L. Huron. 

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