Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Certainly this won't be a major event, but considering it's mid-November...I think it's note-worthy enough to deserve it's own thread. Looks like a decent bet that parts of MO, IL, IN, MI, and OH will get their first "widespread" 1"+ snowfall. The Euro and NAM have been the most bullish so far, while the GFS and Canadians are a little more subdued. We'll go with the 12z 4km NAM weenie maps to kick things off. Do note that these are 60 hour totals, and some of it is from tonight/early tomorrow. "Centered over St. Louis map" "Centered over Indianapolis map" "Centered over Cincinnati map" "Centered over Cleveland map" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 lol so after the models had been persistent ALL week with about 0.04-0.08" qpf for tonight we now look to get nothing, and yet tomorrow nights storm all of a sudden may clip us with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 lol so after the models had been persistent ALL week with about 0.04-0.08" qpf for tonight we now look to get nothing, and yet tomorrow nights storm all of a sudden may clip us with snow. Pretty much the same here. I guess we'll have to wait and see. 12z GFS taking a step N/NW, but still not as far as the good old NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 We just need that shortwave to swing out of the SW a bit faster (to allow for a faster phase)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Total QPF map comparisons between the 0z and 12z GFS (both through 0z 11/18). Noticeable shift when looking at SW MO and then up through central IN. 0z GFS 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Just looking at the incoming wave on radar it seems that the southern side is doing the best right now. Southern Iowa looks to get some decent accumulations this afternoon along with northern MO. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Thinking 1-2" here by the time this ends. The sharp cutoff makes me a little nervous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 IND doesn't do November snow very well. Believe it or not, the last time there was at least an inch was all the way back on November 15-16, 1997 when 2.5" fell. Last time that various amounts fell in a November storm: 2": 11/15-11/16, 1997 3": 11/13/1997 4": 11/25-11/26, 1975 More time has gone by since IND has had a November snowfall over 4" than an October snowfall over 4"... the October one being the infamous 1989 event. Edit: based on maps, that 1975 thing actually looks like it may have been two separate storms on back to back days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Looking very well here for 1-3" tomorrow. With potential for that 3" to verify. Would be the biggest November snow for my back yard in 25 yrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z Euro pretty much holds serve. For central Indiana purposes, a little skimpier down in places like BMG, IND, etc. LAF continues to ride the line between getting 1.3" or mood flakes. Fun stuff. Going to ride my call of T to 1.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 IND doesn't do November snow very well. Believe it or not, the last time there was at least an inch was all the way back on November 15-16, 1997 when 2.5" fell. Last time that various amounts fell in a November storm: 2": 11/15-11/16, 1997 3": 11/13/1997 4": 11/25-11/26, 1975 More time has gone by since IND has had a November snowfall over 4" than an October snowfall over 4"... the October one being the infamous 1989 event. Edit: based on maps, that 1975 thing actually looks like it may have been two separate storms on back to back days. It must have been two events. DTW got 5.2" on Nov 26/27, 1975 (and 1.2" on Nov 24/25 but there was rain also). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 12z Euro pretty much holds serve. For central Indiana purposes, a little skimpier down in places like BMG, IND, etc. LAF continues to ride the line between getting 1.3" or mood flakes. Fun stuff. Going to ride my call of T to 1.0". Still grazing SE MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Still grazing SE MI? Yep. Something like 1.0-1.5" for you. Turn on those magnets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yep. Something like 1.0-1.5" for you. Turn on those magnets. I will lol...pull the force NW! Its funny if we somehow miss BOTH tonight and tomorrow nights synoptic events, but still get all the lake effect this week, we could have above normal snow in Nov with no synoptic snow . Of course...lets hope thats not the case. NORTHWEST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 After trending down, the 9z SREF plumes have trended upward here with a mean just over 2". Still quite a bit of spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 After trending down, the 9z SREF plumes have trended upward here with a mean just over 2". Still quite a bit of spread though. Baby stepping upward on the 15z run Mean is now 4" for IND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 18z NAM has a little more qpf here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Baby stepping upward on the 15z run Untitled.png Mean is now 4" for IND Most of the clunkers are right around an 1/2 to an inch...so that's not bad. At this point, I'm really just hoping for something measurable that's over 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Most of the clunkers are right around an 1/2 to an inch...so that's not bad. At this point, I'm really just hoping for something measurable that's over 0.5". I'm just looking for something measurable period. (See sig). Models have continuously had FWA in no man's land between two waves. I'll wave at the first one as goes by to the north and wave to the second one as it passes to the south. EDIT: Yeah, I know, complaint thread, but I just had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm just looking for something measurable period. (See sig). Models have continuously had FWA in no man's land between two waves. I'll wave at the first one as goes by to the north and wave to the second one as it passes to the south. Join me in rooting for the 18z NAM. Which is weird, because I'm used to trying to fight off the NAM's NW "advances". Total QPF through 12z Monday. Nice Alek sucker hole, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm just looking for something measurable period. (See sig). Models have continuously had FWA in no man's land between two waves. I'll wave at the first one as goes by to the north and wave to the second one as it passes to the south. EDIT: Yeah, I know, complaint thread, but I just had to. Trends looking better there...optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Anybody think that Kentucky will get over 3" from this storm? It could be a Kentuckipocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Anybody think that Kentucky will get over 3" from this storm? It could be a Kentuckipocalypse. or kentuckaggedon.... and yes I do think they will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm just hoping for an inch to inch and a half here in Central MI, as the first part of the storm fizzles and dies right over Michigan, most of what the models are showing is lake enhancement that never really reaches my area much. You guys in IN/OH look good for 2" or so though with the second part of the system. Maybe extreme north kentucky gets their kentuckaggedon 3" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 IND makes my call for LAF look optimistic. Just chance POPs. TIPPECANOE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE403 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THEMID 20S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH..SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH..SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.LOWS AROUND 19. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH..MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Ill take it: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 400 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A ANDERSON TO INDIANAPOLIS AND SULLIVAN LINE... INZ040>042-047>049-053>057-060>065-067>072-160500- /O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0014.141117T0000Z-141117T1400Z/ MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW- DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS... SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD... SEYMOUR 400 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. * MAIN IMPACT:ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY...TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT...: * ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM VINCENNES TO INDIANA POLS AND ANDERSON. LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS FATHER WEST. * TIMING: MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SNOW MAY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST TO MID MORNING ON MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. * OTHER IMPACTS: IT WILL TURN COLDER MONDAY AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Winter wx advisory now issued for areas along and se of a line from Muncie to Indpls sw to Sullivan. Woo hoo! 2-3 inches anticipated here with up to 4 se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 15, 2014 Author Share Posted November 15, 2014 Very nice. Good luck to you fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I'm just hoping for an inch to inch and a half here in Central MI, as the first part of the storm fizzles and dies right over Michigan, most of what the models are showing is lake enhancement that never really reaches my area much. You guys in IN/OH look good for 2" or so though with the second part of the system. Maybe extreme north kentucky gets their kentuckaggedon 3" lol. I would hate to live near Mt. Pleasant/Alma areas. You guys don't get lake effect stuff from L. Michigan or L. Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I would hate to live near Mt. Pleasant/Alma areas. You guys don't get lake effect stuff from L. Michigan or L. Huron. Haha yeah drives me nuts every year, I am however an expert at subtracting lake enhancement / lake effect from my snow totals living here in the donut hole of lake effect of the entire state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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